Al-Qaeda banks on the chaos theory
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
ISLAMABAD - On January 17, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi announced a
temporary national unity government in Tunisia following the ouster of Zine
el-Abidine Ben Ali, but the so-called Jasmine revolution has not been able to
shed the country of the former president's legacy; as a result, the mass street
protests continue.
The standoff between protesters and the authorities had showed no signs of
easing on Thursday after a reshuffle of the interim government - which contains
many of Ben Ali's ministers - was postponed the day before. Thousands of people
are still
camped in the streets.
The events in Tunisia that have seen an unpopular ruler toppled have inspired
people in other countries. They have taken to the streets in Algeria and also in
Egypt, considered the leader of the Arab world, in the shape of the most violent
agitation against the three-decade regime of American-backed President Hosni
Mubarak.
As in Tunisia, in these countries too there is no specified role for the
political opposition forces.
This has led al-Qaeda's ideologues and strategists to stay their hand. Apart
from issuing a few statements, they don't plan any immediate intervention. They
trust that the upheavals will lead to further chaos - welcomed by al-Qaeda - but
at this point there is no popular political force capable of providing
alternative leadership.
Hence, al-Qaeda will wait and see in the hope that the chaos will sufficiently
dilute the state apparatus to allow the group to establish a firm footing, as it
has done in Somalia, Iraq and Afghanistan.
"There is no need for al-Qaeda to intervene at this in point," a major al-Qaeda
strategist in South Asia told Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity.
"Al-Qaeda does not have any role in these circumstances. This is a very
preliminary situation. At the moment, these agitations are spreading all across
the Arab world, but ahead is a void. There is no leadership to direct those
developments.
"Therefore, al-Qaeda will let the agitation go on without specifying its role at
this stage. Al-Qaeda's role will begin at the next level, when the agitations
reach a climax and the system [of government] collapses in these countries.
Al-Qaeda will then prop them up with its plans and strategies," the strategist
said.
The unrest in Egypt, with its population of 80 million, has made people around
the world sit up. It is the most important United States ally in region, and it
is also home to some ultra-radical Islamic groups. It is possible that the
protests could lead to democratization of society - or plunge the country into
the hands of Islamists.
After thousands of people clashed with police on the streets of Cairo on
Tuesday, tensions have eased following the Interior Ministry declaring that "no
provocative movements or protest gatherings or organizing marches or
demonstrations will be allowed".
Nearly 1,000 people have been arrested across Egypt and the demonstrations are
considered to be the largest in decades. People are protesting against the poor
economic situation in the country and demanding the resignation of Mubarak.
Gamal Mubarak, Mubarak's son and potential successor, and his family have fled
to the United Kingdom, Akhbar al-Arab newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Rashid al-Ghannusi, a Tunisian Islamist leader in exile, has made preparations
to return. To pacify the international audience, he has sweetened his stance by
saying that he would follow the model of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan by introducing moderate Islam.
The Islamist leader of Sudan, Dr Hassan Turabi, has been arrested following his
threats to the government for a revolt along the lines of that in Tunisia.
Islamists have taken to the streets in Jordan and vowed for more nationwide
protests in the coming days.
The key issue, though, is whether the opposition forces, whether secular or
Islamist, have the capacity to turn their protests into real change. There are
examples of people taking to the streets against pro-American Muslim ruling
elites during the US invasion on Afghanistan in 2001 and on Iraq in 2003, but
those mobilizations eventually died down and did not become catalysts for
change.
The Arab world's political forces, whether they exist in the corridors of power
or in the opposition, share the same dilemma in that they don't have direct
discourse with the common folk, and as such they fail to offer any popular
leadership role.
This also applies to Muslim Brotherhood organizations in the Middle East, the
largest opposition groups across the region. The Brotherhood was founded in 1928
in Egypt.
Since the 1960s, the Brotherhood parties have basically just struggled for
survival. This followed extensive executions of its leaders and the Brotherhood
splitting into factions. Groups became disconnected with the masses and offered
them no cause for democracy or for their well-being.
A segment of the party was involved in terrorism through underground
organizations and was therefore cut off from the masses. The leaders of the main
party took refuge in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states or in Europe and the US.
Their policies are often aimed at appeasing their patrons. The best example of
this is the International Council of Muslim Brotherhood.
It has a 51% representation in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood party (the mother
organization) and 24% in all other Muslim Brotherhood parties. It also has a 25%
representation on the Muslim Brotherhood from the Gulf States, which is
politically the most inactive organ among all Brotherhood parties and considered
a voice of the shiekhdoms who funnel huge amounts of money into the coffers of
Muslim Brotherhood parties. This branch ensures that the wishes of the Gulf
state rulers are taken care of in the broader policy framework of the Muslim
Brotherhood in the Arab world.
The unrest might provide the Brotherhood organizations the opportunity for
significant revival, even as al-Qaeda bides its time, waiting for the moment to
capitalize on the chaos.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief and
author of upcoming book Inside al-Qaeda and the Taliban, beyond 9/11
published by Pluto Press, UK. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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