THE
ROVING EYE Next stop: The House of
Saud By Pepe Escobar
Here's a crash course on how one of "our"
- monarchic - dictators treats his own people
during the great 2011 Arab revolt.
The
king of Bahrain, Hamad al-Khalifa, has blood on
his hands after his mercenary security forces -
Pakistani, Indian, Syrian and Jordanian - with no
previous warning, attacked sleeping, peaceful
protesters at 3 am on Thursday at the Pearl
roundabout, the tiny Gulf country's version of
Cairo's Tahrir Square.
In the brutal
crackdown, at least five people have been killed -
including a young child - and 2,000 injured, some
by gunshots, two of these in critical condition.
Riot police targeted doctors and medics and
prevented ambulances and blood donors from
reaching the Pearl
roundabout. A doctor at Salmaniya hospital told
al-Jazeera there was a refrigerated truck outside
the hospital, which he fears the army has used to
remove more dead bodies.
The resourceful
Maryama Alkawaka of the Bahrain Center for Human
Rights was there; "It was very violent, [the
police] were not showing any mercy." An avalanche
of tweets from Bahrainis denounced an
"Israeli-style" sneak attack and shoot-to-kill
approach. And many have denounced al-Jazeera for
not having kept a live satellite link as it had in
Cairo, and for implying that this was only a
Shi'ite protest. The Pearl roundabout is now
surrounded by nearly 100 tanks at every entrance
and exit. Downtown Manama has been turned into a
ghost city.
The Shi'ite opposition
described it as "real terrorism". Reem Khalifa,
senor editor at the opposition newspaper al-Wasat,
said, "The regime forces just came and massacred a
crowd of people as they slept." They had been
"chanting together, shouting 'neither Sunni nor
Shi'ite but Bahraini'. We have not seen this
before. And this is what annoyed the government
agents the most - they are always trying to divide
the people ... And now the regime is spreading
lies about me and other journalists who are trying
to say what is happening."
Khalifa had the
courage to stand up and harshly confront Bahrain's
foreign minister at a press conference, totally
debunking his version of events (he called the
deaths "regrettable" but insisted protesters were
sectarian, and armed).
The Gulf
Cooperation Council - the scandalously wealthy
club of local kingdoms which holds over US$1
trillion stashed away in foreign reserves and
almost 50% of the world's proven oil reserves
still underground - issued, what else, a bland
statement supporting Bahrain.
Kill
them, but with a velvet glove Is
Washington remotely outraged by all this? The
record speaks for itself. United States Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton expressed "deep concern",
according to the State Department, and "urged
restraint". The Pentagon said Bahrain was "an
important partner"; later Secretary of Defense
Robert Gates called Bahrain's Crown Prince Salman
- certainly to make sure everything was dandy with
the US Navy's 5th Fleet and its 2,250 personnel
housed in an isolated compound inside 24 hectares
in the center of Manama.
Even the New York
Times was forced to acknowledge that US President
Barack Obama had "yet to issue the blunt public
criticism of Bahrain's rulers that he eventually
leveled against President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt -
or that he has repeatedly aimed at the mullahs in
Iran". But he can't; after all, Bahrain's
I-shot-my-people king is another usual suspect, a
"pillar of the American security architecture in
the Middle East", and "a staunch ally of
Washington in its showdown with Iran's Shi'ite
theocracy".
Under these strategic
circumstances, it's hard to dismiss Lebanese
political scientist and blogger at the Angry Arab
website As'ad AbuKhalil, when he stresses, "The US
had to plot the repression of Bahrain to appease
Saudi Arabia and other Arab tyrants who were mad
at Obama for not defending Mubarak to the every
end."
Incidentally, Saudi Arabia's prince
Talal Bin Abdulaziz - father of the billionaire
darling of the West prince Al Waleed bin Talal -
told the BBC there's a danger the protests in
Bahrain could spill into Saudi Arabia.
It's never enough to stress Bahrain is all
about Iran vs Saudi Arabia (see All
about the Pearl roundabout Asia Times Online,
February 18).
The US naval base in Manama
translates as a cop on the (Persian Gulf) beat.
Moreover, 15% of Saudi Arabia's population is
Shi'ite, living in the eastern provinces, where
the oil is. That makes it very hard for Bahrainis
- Shi'ite and even Sunni - to threaten the ruling,
Sunni, al-Khalifa dynasty, as the House of Saud
will immediately rush in with all sorts of
logistical and military support.
Moreover,
Saudi Arabia has huge leverage over Bahrain's oil,
which comes from the shared Abu Saafa oilfield,
explored by Saudi Aramco and shared with a
Bahraini refiner.
Bahrain is far from
swimming in oil. According to International
Monetary Fund figures, in 2010 Saudi Arabia
produced roughly 8.5 million barrels of oil a day;
the United Arab Emirates 2.4 million barrels;
Kuwait 2.3 million barrels; and Bahrain only
200,000 barrels.
According to Moody's, to
balance its budget the Bahrain government needs
oil at $80 a barrel, "one of the highest budgetary
‘break-even' points in the region", says the
Financial Times. As a Barclays Capital report puts
it with typical corporate contortionism, "The
announcements of street protests, concessions by
the government at the cost of a deteriorating
fiscal position and simmering political tensions
have created a backdrop that has clearly caused
investors to view Bahrain with increased caution."
So if protesters really want to hit the
al-Khalifa where it hurts, they should aim at the
nexus oil business/financial sector. It will be an
extraordinary uphill struggle against a nasty
police state crammed with mercenaries - especially
Jordanian military consultants (the "master
torturer" of the Mukhabarat is a Jordanian) and
now also counting on "help" from Saudi tanks and
troops. Moreover, the riot police and special
forces don't speak the local dialect, and in the
case of Balochis from Pakistan, don't even speak
Arabic.
Prospects are bleak. The inside
dope in Manama is of a split within the royal
family. The dreaded, sectarian Khalid bin Ahmed,
responsible for the policy of naturalizing
"imported" Sunnis to alter the demographic balance
and dilute even more the voting rights of the
indigenous Shi'ite population, would be on one
side; and the king plus Crown Prince Salman
(Gates' pal) would be on the other. The king may
be losing control. And in this case Saudi Arabia
would be lobbying for bin Ahmed to take over and
get one of the king's sons, Nasir Bin Hamed to be
crown prince. This does make sense if seen under
the angle of the brutal crackdown.
Time
to cross the bridge What Bahrain's
Shi'ites can certainly accomplish is to inspire
Shi'ites in Saudi Arabia in terms of a long fight
for greater social, economic and religious
equality. It's wishful thinking to bet on the
House of Saud reforming itself - not while
enjoying extraordinary oil wealth and maintaining
a vast repression apparatus, more than enough to
buy or intimidate any form of dissent.
Yet
there may be reasons to dream of Saudi Arabia
following the winds of new Egypt. The average age
of the House of Saud trio of ruling princes is 83.
Of the country's indigenous population of 18.5
million, 47% is under 18. A medieval conception of
Islam, as well as overwhelming corruption, is
under increasing vigilance on YouTube, Facebook
and Twitter.
The middle class is
shrinking. 40% of the population actually lives
under the seal of poverty, has access to virtually
no education, and is in fact unemployable (90% of
all employees are "imported" Sunnis). Even
crossing the causeway to Manama is enough to give
people ideas.
Once again, talk about an
extraordinary uphill struggle - in a country with
no political parties - or labor unions, or student
organizations; with any sort of protests and
strikes outlawed; and with members of the
shura council appointed by the king.
The Arab News newspaper anyway has already
warned that those winds of freedom from northern
Africa may hit Saudi Arabia. And it may all
revolve around youth unemployment, at an
unsustainable 40%. There's no question; the great
2011 Arab revolt will only fulfill its historic
mission when it shakes the foundations of the
House of Saud. Young Saudi Sunnis and Shi'ites,
you have nothing to lose but your fear.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
