Libya puts China in world stage
spotlight By M K Bhadrakumar
Launcelot Gobbo told his elderly father in
a poignant moment in William Shakespeare's play
Merchant of Venice, "Truth will come to
light; murder cannot be hid long." But the tragedy
of life is often that by the time "truth is out",
Gobbo would have become sand-blind and would no
more be able to see his son.
For the
hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who perished since
2003, it is no consolation that the "truth is out"
- that the war was a phony one bred by greed and
imperial arrogance. Which is why it becomes
important that the United States' proposed
intervention in Libya shouldn't turn out to be
another sojourn in yet another unknown land of
killings.
A report in the London Sunday
Times that a British special forces unit had been
captured in the east of Libya underscores that
"truth" is once again at a
premium. Anyone who follows events in Libya would
know that Muammar Gaddafi's hold over the eastern
provinces of his country, especially Benghazi, was
tenuous at the best of times. Libya is a complex
tribal mosaic and Western intelligence exploited
Gaddafi's Achilles' heel.
War option is
the only option British Defense Secretary
Liam Fox wrote an article in the London Sunday
Telegraph recently in which he argued that the
impact of the Middle East uprising would be
far-reaching and would resonate for many years and
it raised the question of how British forces could
respond to crisis situations. Fox actually pledged
to strengthen Britain's special forces in response
to the Arab revolt. These are excerpts:
The events over the recent days may
produce a strategic shock and change in how we
view the world. The speed of events in North
Africa has shown how quickly circumstances can
change and how quickly the UK can be drawn in.
An island like Britain, with so many interests
in so many parts of the world ... is inevitably
affected by global stability ... If required, we
could field a force of 30,000, including
maritime and air assets for a one-off
intervention. Although I cannot go into detail,
our internationally respected and battle-tested
Special Forces will receive significantly
enhanced capabilities.
Clearly, the
"intervention option" is propelling the
Anglo-American juggernaut. A little behind, France
tags along not to miss out on the "peace
dividends" that follow the intervention - Libyan
oil. The parallel with the Iraq war is striking,
except that things are on a fast-forward mode.
United States senators John McCain and
Joseph Lieberman forcefully outlined the blueprint
for President Barack Obama immediately after their
return to Washington last week after consultations
in Tel Aviv. They urged that Obama needed to take
tougher action against Gaddafi. Lieberman
demanded, "The fact is now is the time for action,
not statements."
McCain spelt out specific
steps: "Libyan pilots aren't going to fly if there
is a no-fly zone and we could get air assets there
to ensure it. Recognize some provisional
government that they are trying to set up in the
eastern part of Libya, help them with material
assistance, make sure that every one of the
mercenaries knows that ... they will find
themselves in front a war crimes tribunal. Get
tough."
Indeed, Obama got "tough". The
chief military correspondent of Politics Daily,
David Wood, reported from Fort Bragg, North
Carolina, four days ago:
With orders from the White House to
prepare "all options", military planners across
the armed services are scrambling, from the
XVIII Airborne Corps and 82nd Airborne Division
headquartered here, to the U.S. Central Command
and the U.S. Special Operations Command in
Tampa, Fla., down to the future operations cell
of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, embarked
on the USS Kearsarge, an ambitious assault
carrier headed toward Libya from the Red Sea ...
None of the US planners involved will talk on
the record.
Privately, though, planners,
strategists and analysts describe a range of
potential missions from imposing "no-fly" and
"no-drive" zones ... to launching limited and
short-duration humanitarian and relief
operations. And because operations planners must
consider worst-case situations, some are also
looking at larger-scale armed intervention.
Agence France-Presse reported from
Athens on Friday that the USS Kearsarge and
another warship, the USS Ponce, had already
set anchor at the US naval base on the Greek
island of Crete and that the amphibious ready
group included 800 marines and a fleet of
helicopters. The American aircraft carrier USS
Enterprise (which has fighter jets that could
enforce a "no-fly" zone) is also on call for the
Libya crisis.
Defining a historical
moment? In short, the attempt by Washington to
portray that its Libya plans are molded by events
does not add up. Clearly, the US is defining a
historical moment: if the Western world's vital
economic interests come under threat, it is only
the US that can salvage them, even when the
theater is Europe's immediate neighborhood.
Unlike in the case of the Iraq war, Europe
is solidly backing the US. There are no dissonant
voices like France's Jacques Chirac or Germany's
Gerhard Schroeder's mocking at the impending US
intervention. Europe's vital economic and business
interests are at stake in Libya.
But
Obama's sail is also getting wind from two other
quarters. First, Russia's "cooperative" stance.
Russia is not opposing US plans, which makes
things easy for Obama in the United Nations
Security Council - and avoids the stigma of
"unilateralism". Russian diplomats worked hard to
push the unanimous Libya resolution through in New
York, which was no mean contribution to US
diplomacy.
Clearly, Obama's "reset" with
Moscow is coming into play. Obama has successfully
pandered to Russian demands to be treated as an
"equal power". Now, there could even be more
US-Russia tradeoffs in the coming months in the
wake of the Middle East crisis. Iranians already
voice disquiet that Moscow is again playing
hide-and-seek on the commissioning of the Bushehr
nuclear power plant.
Anyhow, coincidence
or not, US Vice President Joseph Biden is visiting
Moscow this week and Washington has held out
missile defense and Russia's World Trade
Organization membership as two priority areas in
US policies in 2011.
In any case, all this
business of democracy and "Arab awakening" never
quite excited Russia. In Russia's "de-ideologized"
world view, with 100% accent on self-interests,
there is no requirement to promote democracy
abroad. In fact, democracy can spread like a
contagious disease and, after all, the Greater
Middle East and the "Muslim world" also encompass
the Caucasus and the Central Asian steppes.
For China, too, such uneasiness about the
democracy virus probably exists. But that's a
peripheral concern and probably a nuisance. But
China is always a unique country and its behavior
in New York was highly unusual in voting for the
US resolution imposing sanctions on Libya and a
referral of that country to the International
Criminal Court.
Non-intervention has been
a core principle for China. Over Myanmar, Zimbabwe
or North Korea, China's stance has been
consistent. Was it the specter of Gaddafi
trampling on the holiest of Chinese principles -
stability? Obviously, China has high stakes in the
Middle East's stability and its economic interests
happen to coincide with Eastern interests.
But that alone is insufficient to explain
the novel Chinese stance on national sovereignty.
One reason could be that China found itself on the
defensive through much of last year by being
pilloried (rightly or wrongly) as an "assertive"
power and 2010 turned out to be China's annus
horribilus in foreign policy. Libya presents
an opportunity for China to be a "stakeholder"
with Western countries.
The fashion in
which China evacuated its nationals out of Libya
is also relevant. A Chinese frigate was needlessly
pressed into the mission and four Chinese military
transport planes lifted off from Xinjiang and
appeared in the Mediterranean skies in an
unprecedented move. Besides, by not only
evacuating its own nationals, but also lending a
hand to rescue hundreds of Europeans, Bangladeshis
and Vietnamese, China probably displayed its
willingness to carry the burdens of a world power.
However, the big question still remains:
Is this a one-off or has China's defining moment
come as a collaborator of the US in securing the
"global commons". We will know when and if the US
presses the UN Security Council for the
establishment of a "no-fly" zone over Libya.
From the fact that the US and its partners
are discussing the "no-fly" zone option outside
the UN if need arises to do so, it appears Obama
isn't quite sure how far China is willing to go to
concede its red lines.
A precedent of
immense significance for international security is
taking shape, and China has every reason to
introspect. As Launcelot Gobbo posed to his blind
father, "Do I look like a cudgel or a hovel-post,
a staff or a prop? Do you know me, father?"
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His
assignments included the Soviet Union, South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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