THE
ROVING EYE Rage against the House of
Saud By Pepe Escobar
To follow Pepe's articles on the Great
Arab Revolt, please click here.
The key slogan in Tahrir Square in Egypt
was "the people want the downfall of the regime".
When it comes to Saudi Arabia, it's more like "the
House of Saud wants the downfall of its people".
Which brings us to the US$36 billion
question; can an ailing monarch (Saudi King
Abdullah) bribe his subjects with oil money
(including a last-minute, Hosni Mubarak-style 15%
pay rise to public servants) and thus escape the
furious freedom winds of the great 2011 Arab
revolt? The world will be able to watch a preview
this Friday, as a
Facebook-organized "Day of Rage" hits the globe's
largest gas station.
Yet don't expect to
see much on al-Jazeera - because the coverage
won't be anything like Egypt and Libya; it has
already been pre-empted by a princely visit to the
emir of Qatar; al-Jazeera is based in Qatar, while
the al-Arabyya news channel is a mouthpiece of the
House of Saud. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all belong to
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Obviously none
of these GCC kings and emirs want to be swept away
by democracy; revolution is only for "others",
like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
Rage is
here to stay It's official; for the House
of Saud, everyone opposing them is an Osama bin
Laden, as a hack working for Saudi Prince Salman
and his son, who's the editor of the Ash-Sharq
al-Awsat paper, made sure this week (in doubt, he
also added Iran). The juicy part is that the House
of Saud itself gave birth to the original bin
Laden - no to mention 15 of the 19 jihadis on
9/11.
This branding of all Saudi
opposition as al-Qaeda (Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali,
Mubarak, Muammar Gaddafi, they all did it)
followed the Saudi shura (council) praising
a ruling by Medieval Wahhabi clerics in favor of
banning any demonstrations - on religious grounds
(even though a lot of Saudis on Facebook stressed
the country is a signatory to an international
treaty recognizing the right of people to
demonstrate).
Whatever Wahhabis rule, the
House of Saud won't get rid of the underlying rage
permeating a mass of unemployed youth wired to the
world by Facebook and Twitter (almost half of the
total population is under 18). They won't get rid
of a demographic boom (from the current 19 million
to 30 million in a decade); an overall
unemployment rate of 20% compared to 9 million
employed foreigners; a monoculture dependent on
oil; a paltry education system that can't train
people for useful work; and the fact that Saudis
are hip to neighborly Bahrain on fire, yearning
for democracy.
King Abdullah seems to be
certain his billions in handouts will do the
trick. He's certainly not listening to Prince
Al-Waleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz al-Saud -
arguably the West's favorite Arab investor, who
told the New York Times, "Arab governments can no
longer afford to take their populations for
granted, or to assume that they will remain static
and subdued". He forgot to add that the House of
Saud is absolutely blind to politics - and does
not understand the meaning of dignity or
democracy.
The demands carried by the Day
of Rage are straightforward; a constitutional
monarchy; end to corruption; the right to elect at
least some of their rulers; freedom for women; and
the release of thousands of political prisoners.
But like in Bahrain, the demands could easily
escalate to "Bring down the House of Saud".
Echoes by Facebook and Twitter from the
streets of Riyadh, as well as comments in Saudi
newspapers, are uplifting. Apparently Saudis of
all ages and professions are following the great
2011 Arab revolt to the minute, wondering if the
same could happen "here" - and blaming the House
of Saud for unemployment and corruption - in
public places; this in a country where any public
gathering is strictly forbidden, and punishable by
lashings and jail (from several months to two
years).
Saudi media have reported on two
people who have burned themselves in protest. A
nasty crackdown last week in the city of Qatif -
including attacks on Shi'ite women - related to a
protest for the release of political prisoners,
turned even more people against the monarchy. Last
week after Friday prayers in Riyadh, protesters
gathered in front of al-Rajhi mosque and chanted
anti-government and anti-corruption slogans.
Meet the Hunayn revolution The
fact that this is being branded the Hunayn
revolution makes the House of Saud freak out even
more. Hunayn is a valley near Mecca where Prophet
Mohammed battled a confederation of Bedouins in
the year 630. The Prophet's forces won. A
reference in the Koran, 9: 25-26, reads like a
direct message to the House of Saud: "God gave you
victory on many battlefields. Recall the day of
Hunayn when you fancied your great numbers. So the
earth, with all its wide expanse, narrowed before
you and you turned tail and fled. Then God made
his serenity to descend upon his Messenger and the
believers, and sent down troops you did not see -
and punished the unbelievers."
It doesn't
take a PhD in Koranic studies to see "the
unbelievers", in this Hunayn revolution remix - as
King Abdullah and his court.
For the Day
of Rage, at least 10,000 security goons have been
deployed to the key northeastern Shi'ite-majority
provinces - where the oil is, and which congregate
around 10% of the kingdom's population. There's a
risk of serious confrontations. In this case,
according to the organizers, women should march as
human shields in front of the protesters; this may
not work, as it did not dissuade the goons in
Qatif.
Trying to defuse the tension, and
building on King Abdullah's $36 billion bonanza in
state handouts, Saudi Minister of Labor Adel al
Faqih now seems to have seen the light as well -
and is promising all sorts of economic plans that
he says will finally erase unemployment, inflation
and poverty. He even promised to end all
restrictions on women's employment (but then he
had to backtrack). Most Saudis are not convinced -
in a society where only those with wasta
(connections) can get some sort of privilege.
Moreover, this is a society where for many
"reform" is a sin, and with the rulers handing out
education to fanatic clerics, constructive
criticism and intellectual debate are also widely
considered sins.
People for instance still
vehemently defend the medieval Commission for the
Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice as
essential for good governance. The Saudi Minister
of Religion is always a member of the al-Sheikh
family (descendants of Ibn Abdul Wahab). Wahhabism
is rigid as a rock, allows no interpretation, no
"idolatry", veneration of statues, or even works
of art. Not to mention no smoking, no shaving of
beards, and very few rights for women. And if you
don't follow it, even if you're a Muslim, you're
the enemy. No wonder this society produced
al-Qaeda and jihadis - and no science or ideas.
Make no mistake; for all their glitzy
skylines and investor-friendly self-image, Saudi
Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries
are all ruled by secrecy and fear. No political
parties, no trade unions, no defense of workers
safety, no defense of immigrant rights, no women's
groups, and very few legal organizations to ensure
a fair and independent judicial process. If you're
branded as an "al-Qaeda" opposition (or an Iranian
agent) you can be detained indefinitely without
trial - Guantanamo-style. Or you disappear in jail
after a grotesque trial. Torture is of course
endemic. And foreign workers - especially
non-Muslims - live in perpetual fear.
Washington and European capitals are
shaken to the core with the prospect of those
northern African winds producing a freedom storm
in Saudiland - and the Persian Gulf.
So
forget about "democracy" or "human rights". Enter
the brand new Barack Obama administration "regime
alteration" doctrine, where popular aspirations in
the Gulf - from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain and Oman -
are ditched to the benefit of the "stability"
afforded by "key allies", swing producers House of
Saud and hosts of the 5th Fleet the al-Khalifa
dynasty in Bahrain. Moreover, the House of Saud
has told the al-Khalifa that if they do not crush
their own Shi'ite-majority revolt, Saudi forces
will. And Washington won't bat an eyelid. As it
won't bat an eyelid if this Day of Rage turns into
a bloodbath.
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