Why
Turkey recalibrated its Libya
stance By M K Bhadrakumar
Saud bin Faisal bin Abdul-Aziz, the tall,
handsome, urbane Saudi foreign minister, has no
peers. In a career spanning 36 years, he was a key
player in so many high dramas that one loses count
- the Iranian revolution, the Iran-Iraq war, the
Afghan jihad, the Gulf War, the Taliban and
al-Qaeda, the September 11, 2001 attack, the US
invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq. That is, leaving
out his profound contribution to the realignment
of Saudi Arabia's post-Cold War foreign policy,
especially with China.
But the unscheduled
visit of a few hours late in the evening last
Thursday to the Turkish capital of Ankara was a
daunting mission to pin Turkey down to a favorable
stance on the momentous developments in the
region. Ankara, whose ties with Tehran
dramatically improved in the
recent past, had begun treading on the first
circle of Saudi interests.
Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had just
characterized the Saudi intervention in Bahrain as
"a new Karbala". The reference was to the battle
that took place in 680 between the forces of the
Prophet Mohammad's grandson Husain ibn Ali and
Umayyad caliph Yazid II.
Erdogan demanded
a withdrawal of the Saudi forces from Bahrain,
whereas Riyadh visualized a prolonged military
presence as the only guarantee against a Shi'ite
takeover of power in Manama.
Faisal once
lamented about his own legacy in a memorable
interview with New York Times when he reportedly
said:
We have not yet seen moments of joy
in all that time [past 36 years] ... You see the
amount of water, you think you can hold
something in your hand, but it falls away. Sand
is the same thing. So unless there is something
to hold in your hand and to point to success and
as an achievement, then you have done
nothing.
Faisal might have wondered
whether it was water or sand he was holding in his
hand as his private jet took off Thursday night
ferrying him back to his home in Jeddah. Actually,
he was holding something more solid.
Erdogan has since back-tracked from his
Karbala statement. Two days later, Turkey
force-landed an Iranian aircraft en route to Syria
and confiscated materials that breached United
Nations sanctions on Tehran - rocket launchers,
mortars, Kalashnikov rifles and ammunition. A
Turkish Foreign Ministry statement said, "The
plane was allowed to leave ... without the banned
material." The point being stressed is an
"incident" has occurred involving Tehran, and
Turkish diplomatic practices are extremely
sophisticated.
What emerges is that there
has been a steady shift in the past week in the
way in which the Turkish leadership is viewing the
regional situation. Thus far, Turkey has done well
by placing itself on the right side of history in
the New Middle East. The Muslim Brotherhood's
tacit equations with the Supreme Council of the
Egyptian Armed Forces, the Brotherhood's co-option
of Salafis and its surge as the only organized
force in the society and the resounding victory of
the constitutional referendum (which the
Brotherhood robustly backed) - these are positive
trends as far as Erdogan and the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP) is concerned as they
provide a new Islamic ideological basis for closer
Turkish-Egyptian relations.
The Arab
awakening seems to hold the potential to advance
Erdogan's ambitious drive to secure for Turkey
what his detractors call a "neo-Ottoman"
leadership role in the region.
Libya,
therefore, poses a challenge for Erdogan. First,
the international community's intervention in
Libya sets a precedent. It is not lost on Ankara
that there are stirrings of mass protest in
next-door Syria. Besides, Ankara realizes that
international intervention in Libya is creating a
fait accompli that Turkey has no say in. Ankara
began rationalizing that it is in Turkey's
all-round interests to cut a role for itself in
political terms in the international intervention
in Libya rather than to stay aloof. Faisal's
advice would have helped.
However, Turkey
has to work for gaining such a role. Ankara was
upset that it wasn't invited to the summit meeting
in Paris on Monday to choreograph the political
approach to the Western intervention in Libya.
French President Nikolas Sarkozy was keen to
highlight his lead role in the intervention in
Libya and probably punctured Turkey's aspirations
as a regional power in North Africa. Turkey
reacted strongly by questioning the locus
standi of the intervention and the ferocity of
the French air strikes.
Following a
crucial strategy session in Ankara on Monday
night, Turkey concluded that the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) would be the best
antidote to Sarkozy's vanity fair; and if the
alliance were to take a lead role in the
operations, Turkey would also have its say. (All
NATO decisions are taken by consensus and Turkey
is a major member country.)
Turkey hopes
to secure a role similar to what it has been
playing in Afghanistan - participation in the
International Security Assistance Force except in
combat operations. Ankara also argues that like in
Afghanistan, NATO operations ought to have a
mandate from the UN Security Council. Finally,
Turkey would want NATO operations to stay within
the ambit of UN resolution 1973, which means
enforcing a ceasefire, implementing a no-fly zone
and rendering relief and humanitarian assistance.
Turkey has calibrated for developments on
the ground creating a dynamic of their own. For
example, the air strikes may fail to bring desired
results in terms of Muammar Gaddafi losing
control. Then what? A de facto division of Libya
may ensue. This may turn out to be a long and
difficult war and at some stage deployment of
ground troops may become necessary. On the
contrary, if Gaddafi gets ousted in the near term,
who will assume power? To quote Sami Cohen, a
veteran Turkish commentator wired to the
establishment's thinking, "No one knows this.
There is no prepared plan for it. It's just
another indication of an open-ended period of
uncertainty."
In sum, Turkish ambitions as
a regional power - like Sarkozy's - are cruising
without a compass. Meanwhile, US President Barack
Obama spoke to Erdogan on Tuesday evening to
ensure Turkish participation in any NATO
operations. NATO officials have since revealed
that Turkey will be one of the seven members of
the alliance to participate in the naval
operations to enforce the UN's arms embargo and
that four Turkish frigates, one submarine and one
reserve ship have been deployed. (Canada, Spain,
UK, Greece, Italy and US contributed one frigate
each so far.)
Thus, Turkey has moved into
the tent, finally. Turkey has now been included in
the "contact group" of NATO participating
countries, which will meet in London on Tuesday to
"take stock" of the implementation of resolution
1973 so far and to "take forward this work",
according to a British foreign office statement.
Turkey may also have won a point by
forcing France to concede that NATO be given a
role in the planning and execution of the
campaign. (But France has also dug in by insisting
that the political leadership will lie with
"contact group", which will also include
representatives from the Arab League and African
Union).
For all appearances, Turkey
continues to ride a high horse. A columnist in the
pro-government, Islamist-oriented daily Zaman,
Abdulhamit Bilici wrote:
So, where does Turkey currently
stand? Ankara is still behind the US resolution
... [But] Turkey is uneasy about the poor
planning and one-sided nature of the operation.
It is also upset with NATO secretary general
Anders Fogh-Rasmussen's
"we-decided-you-can-join-us" attitude ... It's
unthinkable for a Turkish soldier to attack a
Muslim country. But if it is included in the
planning process properly, the Turkish military
is ready to offer support in every platform,
including NATO regarding non-combat issues.
Let's see if the West will choose to help itself
and the region by cooperating with Turkey or do
the complete opposite by excluding
Turkey.
However, in reality, Turkey
has been compelled to rethink hard and fast. The
"red line" was fast approaching and Turkey was
punching beyond its weight. Faisal helped Ankara
view matters from a realistic perspective. Erdogan
visited Saudi Arabia over the weekend where the
first signs began appearing in the Turkish
rhetoric that a relentless process of rethink was
commencing.
This seems to have been one
mission at least where Faisal probably went wrong
in his harsh self-appraisal during the New York
Times interview an year ago that his legacy might
be defined by "profound disappointment than by
success".
Ambassador M K
Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the
Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included
the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and
Turkey.
(Copyright 2011 Asia Times
Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
