Syria's regional role offers a way
out By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - There are two views about how
to deal with the snowballing crisis that is
emerging between Damascus and the international
community. One says that strained relations with
both the United States and Europe are not as bad
as they seems - claiming that Syria has been here
before. Another argument goes that Damascus cannot
live in isolation, having worked very hard at
repairing damaged relations with Paris and
Washington.
Syria has outlived past crises
with Paris and Washington simply by waiting for
leaders to change, with the departures of Jacques
Chirac and George W Bush. The entire momentum of
relations, they claim, shifted dramatically when
Nicolas Sarkozy and Barack Obama replaced their
predecessors in 2007 and 2009. The chaos in Iraq
and the failure of NATO in Libya gives advocates
of the theory that the world
will not engage in another adventure with the
Syrians much strength.
Advocates of the
counter argument say Syria no longer has the
luxury of time on its side. They claim that the
scale street of demonstrations that began in March
and the 600 deaths since the last week of April as
the Bashar al-Assad regime switched from offers of
reform to a brutal crackdown means that Damascus
simply cannot afford to wait for Obama and Sarkozy
to leave office in order to ward off new sanctions
on senior officials of the Syrian government.
Additionally, once embedded into US and EU laws,
it becomes very difficult to do away with
sanctions, regardless of who occupies the White
House or the Elysee.
The truth could more
likely stand somewhere in-between those
viewpoints. The United States and France after
all, are more interested in their vital interests
in the Arab world than in its democracy and human
rights. Their track record in Saudi Arabia, for
example, or with regimes like those of Hosni
Mubarak of Egypt and Zein al-Abidin Ben Ali in
Tunisia are proof of double standards when it
comes to the Middle East and North Africa.
If Syria continues to provide assistance
on Lebanon, Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict,
these world capitals will make sure that the
crisis does not snowball - at least from their
side. Rather than worry about restoring broken
fences with these countries, it would be wiser to
take a long hard look at Syrian-US and
Syrian-French relations, to see why they snapped
so abruptly.
Relations were not based on
commonalities and real strategic partnerships, but
rather on short-term and limited objectives when
it came to Iraq and Lebanon. So long as the
Syrians were willing to engage with France's
proxies in Lebanon, namely the March 14 Alliance,
Paris was willing to engage the leaders of
Damascus. The same applies to the US, an ally
Syria has worked hard to keep since Obama came to
power in 2009, with Damascus helping mediate
between rival Iraqi groups, getting Iraqi Sunnis
to engage in the political process during the
March 2010 elections.
Things began to
change only when Syria oversaw the toppling of
Saad al-Hariri from power in Beirut in January,
when members of the Hezbollah-backed team walked
out on his government while he was on a state
visit to the US. That, it must be remembered, was
two months before protesters, inspired by other
Arab revolts, marched in Deraa on March 18.
The question remains: if Syria were to use
its influence in Lebanon to help hammer out a
cabinet (ending a vacuum that has lasted since
January) - while curbing Hezbollah ambitions
within the Lebanese system - would the French
change their position? Or would Paris shift its
stance if Syria were to use its allies in Lebanon
to hamper the political process in Lebanon?
Over the past three years, Syria has
worked hard at finding alternative allies in the
international community, precisely for situations
like the one it finds itself in today. There was
an entire world out there, filled with countries
that are willing to work with Syria - with no
preset conditions from Europe or the US.
This explains why so much effort was put
into developing relations with countries like
China, Malaysia, Turkey, India, Ukraine, Bulgaria,
Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, and Latin American
nations like Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil and
Argentina, which were all visited by Assad in the
summer of 2010.
All of them are still as
interested as ever in developing relations with
Damascus. In 2005-2009, Syria realized that the
doors to the outside world do not end at the gates
of London, Paris and Washington.
Although
relations with Obama and Sarkozy were on the rise
for the past two years, Syria made it clear that
it no longer wants to put all its eggs in the same
basket. This is the jewel of the crown in the
"heading East policy" as the Syrians have called
it, is the strategic relationship with Turkey.
Bilateral trade with Ankara currently
stands at US$1.5 billion and which is expected to
reach $5 billion, according to Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. One year ago, Syria
and Turkey signed 47 trade agreements and lifted
visa requirements between both countries, with
Erdogan famously telling the Syrians, "Cooperate
with us [in economy and business] and we will
extract milk, even from the male goat." Trade with
China, for example, currently stands at $2.2
billion, while Syrian imports from Malaysia are
$119 million, with bilateral trade at $156.7
million. With numbers like these, ordinary Syrians
were asking: who needs an Association Agreement
with Europe?
Although some in Syria are
furious with the Turks for criticizing the
government in recent weeks, the relationship with
Turkey is extremely important and needs to be
protected - at any cost. Turkish reforms can serve
as the blueprint for any projected political and
economic reforms Syria plans to undertake as
promised by its top officials since March. The
Turks have already given plenty of good advice on
reforms, even translating their laws from Turkish
into Arabic, placing them at the disposal of the
Syrian government. Turkey can serve as Syria's
channel to Europe, and it can help the Syrians
bring stability to countries like Iraq, while
moderating the behavior of radicals like Iran.
Many have argued that because of critical
articles in both the Syrian and Turkish press, and
recent negative remarks by Erdogan himself, that
relationship is in limbo. That is incorrect,
however, because a relationship that strategic
cannot shatter so quickly - but clearly, the
relationship is not as strong as it used to be,
although reportedly, Assad and Erdogan remain on
excellent personal relations.
Erdogan,
however, has elections in June and he cannot turn
a blind eye to what is happening in Syria, having
projected himself as leader of a regional
superpower. He has interests he needs to uphold
with Europe and the US. But at the end of the day,
he wants Syria to outlive the crisis because he
too has invested heavily in his relationship with
Damascus, which is his channel to the rest of the
Arab world.
Real deep-rooted political and
economic reforms might end the crisis in Syria -
or at best, manage it. These reforms need to go
hand-in-hand with a massive public relations
campaign aimed at polishing Syria's image and
restoring its relations with the rest of the world
- while investing in the relationship with other
countries that matter.
The reforms needed
include ending one-party rule, clamping down on
corruption, releasing political prisoners,
starting a national dialogue, and doing away with
Article 8, which designates the ruling Ba'ath
Party as "leader of state and society".
To
do that, however, the violence must end and the
reforms need to start immediately. Ending
demonstrations with no reforms will simply bring
Syria back to square one. Real reforms while
demonstrations are still mushrooming in different
parts of Syria, will also not work. No reforms
whatsoever will be catastrophic for Syria, both
internally and within the international community
- and nobody knows that better than the Syrians
themselves.
Sami Moubayed is a
university professor, historian, and
editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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