Show
goes on in Iraq's political
circus By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - Iraq has been absent from the
world's radar since upheaval rocked the Arab world
in January, toppling the regimes in Tunisia and
Egypt and sending shockwaves through Bahrain,
Libya, Yemen and Syria.
A closer look at
the political scene in Baghdad, however, shows
that all is not well. Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki is in hot water, like many of his Arab
counterparts - and his government might collapse
soon, if not through street power, then perhaps
through the shattering of the delicate balance in
the upper echelons of Baghdad.
Last week
Maliki hinted that he may resign and call new
elections, just five months after forming his
second cabinet. Two
months ago, large and angry
demonstrations broke out in Baghdad, inspired by
the Arab Spring, chanting against corruption, poor
government services, and the prime minister.
Among other things, he was accused of
mismanagement of public office, abuse of power,
authoritarianism and sectarianism. Maliki promised
immediate action within the next 100 days. That
deadline expires in July and there is nothing on
the horizon to prove that the prime minister is
willing, or capable, of living up to his promises.
There is also a daily barrage of
accusations against him by his predecessor Iyad
Allawi, who is backed by Saudi Arabia and other
Arab heavyweights who are eager to topple Maliki -
seen as an extension of Iranian influence in the
Arab and Muslim world.
Iraq remains
sharply divided between the prime minister and
Allawi. The top seats in the ministries of defense
and the interior are still vacant, and Maliki
still denies Allawi the right to name the minister
of defense. Even worse, he personally still
controls the two jobs in a caretaker capacity, and
seems in no hurry to give them up any time soon.
On Tuesday, Allawi nominated two people
for the Defense Ministry, ex-army officers Nouri
al-Duleimy and Abdul-Majid Abdul Latif, but
neither of them to date has been accepted by the
prime minister. At a recent press conference,
Maliki accused his rival of sectarianism and of
breaching an agreement between them, hammered out
last November.
Then, Allawi sluggishly
agreed to accept Maliki as premier, although the
latter controlled only 89 out of 325 seats in
parliament whereas Allawi's secular National Iraqi
List commanded a slim majority of 91 seats.
Instead, Allawi would be given a new job, which
rivals, and in some cases theoretically
challenges, that of the prime minister - chairman
of the National Council for Strategic Policies
(NCSP). That post, six months down the road, is
still nowhere close to being formed. Allawi
complains that his coalition is being treated "not
as a partner but as a participant" in the Maliki
government.
Allawi accepted the novel post
with a grain of salt. It took heavy lobbying by
Saudi Arabia, and a phone call from US President
Barack Obama, to convince him to settle for the
NCSP, along with assurances that the body would
have real powers, rather than ceremonial duties.
The new council was supposed to operate
under the umbrella of the Iraqi executive branch
and replace the National Security Council,
mandated to monitor government ministers and make
sure that they carry out their duties according to
the constitution. Additionally, the council was
supposed to have several branches: (domestic)
political affairs, foreign policy, economic and
monetary affairs, security and military affairs,
energy, oil and gas, electricity, water and
environmental affairs.
The council would
have a president, or secretary general, an entire
staff and premises allocated by the Iraqi
government in Baghdad. The council will also have
its own budget, which is yet to be determined but
will equal that of the premiership, the
parliamentary speaker and the presidency. Allawi
will reportedly be entitled to approximately 100
advisers and two military units to protect him and
the council from terrorist operations.
Because of so much deliberate delay,
Allawi recently announced that he was no longer
interested in the offer, and that he too would
back out on his agreement with Maliki and call for
early elections. If that happens, there is no
telling what kind of vacuum will emerge in Iraq
and who will fill it, especially as Arab countries
have too much on their plate at this stage to
focus on Iraq.
Theoretically, with Saudi
Arabia focused on the situation in Bahrain and
Syria occupied by internal problems, the only
country willing and able to do the job is Iran.
All eyes are now focused on Iraqi Kurdistan
President Masoud al-Barazani, who has said he will
launch a new initiative to bridge the gap between
Maliki and Allawi.
A 15-man committee has
been formed to conduct shuttle diplomacy between
the two leaders, under the auspices of Barazani,
and to date they have made no contacts with any of
the Arab countries neighboring Iraq, or with the
Iranians. Last October, Barazani's name graced a
deal, known as the Irbil Agreement, where all
parties agreed to form a national partnership
government. Under the agreement, Maliki and
President Jalal Talabani would retain their posts,
while Allawi would get to chair the NCSP.
The real problem facing Iraq today, and
explaining Maliki's delay, is fear of what the
NCSP will mean for Iraq once both Maliki and
Allawi are out of office. The November agreement
did not state whether the council would
permanently be under the control of Allawi's
Iraqiya bloc, or whether different parties, or
sects, would rotate within its leadership in
future years.
Iraqis need to decide
whether the council's leader will always be a
Shi'ite, given that Allawi is Shi'ite, or whether
Sunnis, Kurds and Christians will be entitled to
compete for the post. If the new council will have
powers equal to that of the prime minister, will
it become part of the sectarian division of power
in Iraq? Will it become a permanent seat that is
given to the "second runner up" in any
parliamentary election? And what will its status
become if Allawi becomes prime minister one day?
Would it stay with Allawi's team or will
it go to the "defeated" coalition in parliament?
If this is the case, it needs to be said, either
in writing or gentleman's agreement; especially
that in today's case, Allawi's team is not a
minority in parliament, but actually, the
coalition with the largest number of seats.
Sami Moubayed is a university
professor, historian, and editor-in-chief of
Forward Magazine in Syria.
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