TEL AVIV - An uneasy truce between Israel and militant factions in Gaza is
gradually taking hold since Sunday, after several days of intense hostilities
and multiple casualties on both sides.
This episode of violence is likely over, but it forcefully brought into focus a
security crisis in the Sinai Peninsula that has been brewing since the
overthrow of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and which was exacerbated
by the war in Libya. The Egyptian military rulers allegedly made the problem
worse with their attempts to undermine the Muslim Brotherhood, and despite the
ongoing army efforts to clear the Sinai of terrorists, it is unlikely the area
will calm down soon.
The escalation between Israel and a number of Gaza groups started on Thursday,
after a substantial detachment of militants
(15-20, according to Israeli estimates) crossed the border with Egypt in Sinai
near the Israeli town of Eilat and launched a series of coordinated attacks
that killed eight Israelis and wounded over 40 others.
They used a variety of tactics, firing guns and anti-tank missiles at two
civilian buses and a number of cars, blowing up suicide vests, and laying
roadside bombs and ambushes against the Israeli security forces that arrived on
the scene of the attack.
The shootouts lasted a few hours; the Israeli fatalities included a senior
police sniper, a soldier and six civilians. Seven of the militants were killed
as well, two reportedly in clashes with the Egyptian army after they crossed
back into Sinai. Five Egyptian soldiers also died in the clashes, at least
three from errant Israeli fire.
This incident turned into a major diplomatic scandal between the two countries,
and despite Israel's apology to Egypt, the tensions remain. Reportedly, only
the intervention of Egypt's supreme military ruler, who overruled the decision
of the prime minister, prevented the recall of the Egyptian ambassador from
Israel [1].
Israel quickly blamed the Gaza branch of the Popular Resistance Committees
(PRC), a Palestinian militant group, for the attacks. Apparently, Israeli
intelligence knew about an upcoming large terror attack by PRC members who were
planning to infiltrate from Gaza into Sinai and from there into Israel.
Even though the precise timing of the attack and the infiltration route of the
terrorists surprised the Israelis, they already had a large security force in
the area and were able to mount a rapid response, a circumstance that arguably
greatly reduced the number of casualties.
Israeli analyst Amir Oren fleshes out some more details about the attack,
notably pointing a finger also at Egypt:
There was no intelligence
blunder. It was a mistake in operative evaluation. The Southern Command
assessed the cell would enter Israel somewhere along the border between
Egyptian positions, not under one of the position's eyes. The IDF [Israeli
Defense Forces] expected the cell to try to sneak in at night, not in broad
daylight, and to attack a military target in a bid to abduct a soldier. [2]
There are still many details concerning the attack that are unclear, but the
Israeli response demonstrated a thorough intelligence penetration of the PRC.
Hours after the attack, Israeli aircraft wiped out the top leadership of the
group with a single strike on a Gaza house that was apparently its
headquarters. [3]
What followed was a short but intense period of hostilities. Hamas, which is
the dominant militant group in Gaza, declared the truce with Israel over. Even
though it reportedly held its own fire, it allowed other groups such as the PRC
and Islamic Jihad to unleash a barrage of rockets at southern Israel.
As the Israeli news site Ynet reported, "According to police officials,
Saturday was the worst day in terms of the number of rockets fired into Israel
since Operation Cast Lead two and a half years ago - almost 60 rockets and
mortar shells in 24 hours. [4]" One Israeli was killed and dozens were injured,
including several who were wounded critically. The Israeli air force responded
by bombing numerous Gaza targets, killing an additional eight Palestinians and
wounding scores more.
Notably, the Israeli fatality occurred in the city of Beersheba, despite the
protection of the new Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile system that military
analysts showered with praise after its first battle tests earlier this year.
According to a report in the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, the Gaza militants had
experimented with new tactics, including firing large volleys of missiles, in
an attempt to overwhelm and bypass the system [5].
However, after two or three extraordinarily tense days, it gradually transpired
that neither Israel nor Hamas had an interest in a wider outbreak of
hostilities [6]. Egypt's angry reaction at the death of its soldiers put
additional pressure on the Israeli government to desist from further
escalations; a ceasefire was declared on Sunday, and despite a number of
violations (mostly rockets fired from Gaza), the truce seems to have every
chance to hold [7].
Still, as a number of analysts point out, it is hard to gloss over the fact
that Sinai is quickly turning into a terror hub that is slipping outside
Egypt's control. A number of attacks occurred in the peninsula in the past
months, both against Israel-related targets (such as the gas pipeline that
Egypt uses to export gas into Israel) and against Egyptian targets such as a
police station in the town of al-Arish. [8]
The attack last week occurred several days after the Egyptian army launched a
large operation to regain control of the restive peninsula. [9] It is even
possible that the attack in Israel was meant as a distraction from the Sinai
operation and a means to harm the cooperation between the Israeli and the
Egyptian armies.
Israeli politicians have warned for several months that the security situation
in Sinai has deteriorated since the ouster of Mubarak. "Egypt is having a hard
time realizing its sovereignty in Sinai," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu said in May, quoted by Ha'aretz. "International terror organizations
are stirring in Sinai and their presence is increasing due to Sinai's
connection to Gaza."
Some even link the situation in Sinai and Gaza to the Libyan crisis. "Weapons
are available in Libya as a result of the unstable situation there, and Hamas
has exploited it to buy weapons from Libyan smugglers," Israeli Vice Prime
Minister Moshe Yaalon told Reuters last month.
In a recent report, the American think-tank Stratfor suggests that the power
vacuum in Sinai is partly of the Egyptian military's own making, and is due to
an attempt by the army to weaken its main rival, the Muslim Brotherhood:
Egypt's
military regime is already facing a significant challenge in trying to manage a
political transition at home among varied opposition groups. Its strategy so
far to contain the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has been to allow the
emergence of various Islamist actors, including Salafist groups, to broaden
competition in the political arena.
Sowing divisions among political Islamists can be a tricky process (and one
that is extremely worrying for Israel), especially as Egypt also has to worry
about preventing coordination between these groups and militant factions in
nearby Gaza, such as Hamas. The security vacuum in the Sinai is now compounding
these concerns as the Egyptian regime has been struggling to reassert its
influence over groups operating in the Sinai-Gaza borderland.
The
Egyptian anger at Israel, thus, is in part a facade designed to cover up the
errors of the Egyptian military rulers. Despite that, many locals in Sinai seem
to trust the Egyptian army, [10] the operation to root out the militants there
may also be little more than a cover-up of this larger problem.
In brief, while the current episode between Israel and the Gaza militants is
likely over, we can expect more trouble from Sinai and Egypt in the weeks and
months ahead.
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