SPEAKING FREELY Iran and the implosion of Syria
By Riccardo Dugulin
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click hereif you are interested in contributing.
Recent reports indicate that Iranian operatives have been active in providing logistical support and training for Syrian pro-regime irregular forces.
Along with those developments it is now fully recognized that Hezbollah, Iran's Lebanese proxy, is taking part in medium-scale tactical engagements on the Syrian side of the Lebanese border
and supporting loyalist troops in their offensive against Homs and other rebel-held strongholds.
The Syrian crisis is essential to underline a characteristic trait of the Islamic Republic. Iran has a long track record of giving aid to non-state terrorist networks and militias. The flow of weapons stemming from Iran can be traced through Yemen, Sudan, Nigeria, Kenya as well as South American and Central and South Eastern Asia.
It appears as if during the last 30 years, Iranian foreign policy and defense establishment has focused major efforts on the expansion of influence through covert and indirect support to subversive and terrorist networks, leaving conventional forces to be posted almost exclusively on Persian soil.
This current reality must be closely monitored as it is likely to produce tectonic changes in the security environment of the Near East and further reduce the slim chances of long-term peace and security in the region.
The sponsorship and the creation of powerful militias by Iran, and its proxies, highlights an underlying reality of Tehran's understanding of the region: in order to assert its control and influence the Islamic Republic must oppose the creation of truly independent and sovereign states.
As long as Iran is able to form, influence and control well-armed militias, the situation is likely to lead to the following consequences: the disintegration of already failing states and the exponential growth of terrorist threats against Israeli and Western interests.
Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center has stated: "Syria is basically disintegrating as a nation, similar to how Lebanon disintegrated in the 1970s to ethnic components, and as Iraq did."
The first point to be stressed is that it is in Tehran's best interest to have a Near East which consists of failed and weak states whose central governments do not possess the monopoly over the use of force. In fact, as it has done with Hezbollah, Hamas and the Mahdi Army, the creation of pro-Iranian militias at the expense of national institutions is a unique tool of power projection.
With a well-oiled machine, the Islamic Republic is capable of training and arming terrorist networks in such a way that they act as spoilers to any kind of long term liberal democratic and market oriented reform.
The ability of the Iranian regime to export high-tech weaponry to ideologically complacent network of guerilla fighters in the Near East provides it with a unique trump card: a heavy influence over the region's socio-political landscape without actually any risk of a fall back on its national territory.
Any country in the region knows the risk of intervening and meddling in its neighbors internal affairs. From Ankara to Beirut and from Amman to Jerusalem all players know that their actions in regard of Syria, of the Palestinians or other regional terrorist networks will have a direct effect on their national security structure.
On the other hand, Iran has the ability to activate terrorist cells and militia strongholds to further its hegemonic policies without putting at risk the life of its citizens or the integrity of its territory.
For this, it must be kept in mind that Tehran is unlikely to back any kind of resolution to the Near Eastern powder keg which would diminish the role of non-state armed groups.
As the longevity of rogue partners such as the Bashar al-Assad regime is being exponentially eroded, Iran's best bet is to go all-in over the implosion of Syria which would in the medium term mean that the Islamic Republic could get an upper hand in what appeared to be a strategic loss by developing a new network of militias thus diminishing the chances of a stabilized country opposed to Iran.
In the coming months this situation will drastically change the security environment for Israel and Western assets in the region.
The addition of Iranian-backed Syrian militias and the overt presence of Hezbollah operatives on Israel's Northern border with Syria constitute an absolute alteration to the decades old status quo.
The increased risk of cross borders attacks in the Golan region and the overall higher risk level of regional terrorist attacks will depend on the versatility of non-state armed groups and on the fact that during the early stages of their formation they receive legitimacy solely through their ability to carry out attacks against their stated enemies.
As demonstrated by recent reports, Hezbollah had been planning to hit Israeli targets in the port city of Latakia, and for that reason European states should coordinate closely with Israel to facilitate the exchange of relevant intelligence in order to prevent any loss of civilian lives.
For the same reasons, Israel should refrain from setting out on a strategy based upon "red lines" in regard to the upcoming implosion of Syria. Iran backed militias and terrorist networks have a higher risk level than conventional state actors and are prone to be unresponsive to a discourse of mutual deterrence.
Methodical and risk-related preventive and retaliatory measures must be kept in place and updated to break these networks before they grow larger.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say.Please click hereif you are interested in contributing. Articles submitted for this section allow our readers to express their opinions and do not necessarily meet the same editorial standards of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
Riccardo Dugulin holds a Masters degree from the Paris School of International Affairs (Sciences Po) and is specialized in International Security. He is currently working in Paris for a Medical and Security Assistance company. He has worked for a number of leading think tanks in Washington DC, Dubai and Beirut. Dugulin's website iswww.riccardodugulin.com
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
