Asia Times Online :: Pragmatic Rouhani senses limited options

Middle East

Oct 3, '13

SPEAKING FREELY
Pragmatic Rouhani senses limited options
By Shahram Akbarzadeh

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani returned home to a mixed reception after his famous telephone conversation with President Barak Obama. His supporters cheered the new tone in Iran's international relations while his critics accused him of showing weakness in the face of the "Great Satan". That's the label Imam Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic regime, used to describe the United States.

Khomeini's followers and critics share a sense that Rouhani is

breaking the mold and the status quo in US-Iran relations. The Obama administration also appears to subscribe to this view, albeit very cautiously. This has raised expectations about Iran's willingness to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency at the next scheduled meeting in mid-October.

So far there have been many positive signs. More important than the diplomatic tone of the new president is the fact that the Iranian negotiating team is managed by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs. This is another break with the mold, as the negotiations were managed by the Supreme National Security Council in the past. That Council reported directly to the conservative Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while the Minister for Foreign Affairs Javad Zarif is reputed to be a seasoned diplomat and sits on the cabinet of President Rouhani. This is a significant shift and demonstrates Khamenei's confidence in Rouhani's leadership.

Do these changes amount to a qualitative shift in Iranian policies? Can Rouhani bring change to Iran? Those who voted for him certainly hope so. His electoral victory in the June presidential race took Iran watchers by surprise. Rouhani won with the support of the reform movement and the endorsement of two former presidents, one known for his pragmatism and the other for his reformist agenda. The surge of popular support for Rouhani one week before the elections was a significant show of optimism, hope and expectations that he could reverse the damages done by the firebrand Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

Expectations for change have been high. And Rouhani's measured and polite interaction with the Western media, his respectable performance at the United Nations and his twitted well-wishes to the Iranian Jewish minority have sustained them.

However, Rouhani's scope for change is quite limited. And he is well aware of this. The Supreme Leader maintains the final say and can veto the initiatives of the elected president, directly or through the Guardian Council. This became clear under the presidency of Mohammad Khatami whose efforts at opening up the domestic political and cultural scene as well as Iran's external relations were thwarted, and eventually rolled back.

The lesson for Rouhani is to keep the Supreme Leader on his side. And he has done well so far. Ali Khamenei's speech on the importance of "heroic flexibility" as a necessary aspect of Islamic governance as long as it does not jeopardize key principles, on the eve of Rouhani's UN speech, was a clear green light.

Rouhani is not a reformist. He is a pragmatic politician with the right credentials. He has been among the early revolutionary clerics who founded the Islamic regime. This helps him in his relations with the Supreme Leader and placates him against his hard-line critics. This background also explains his agenda. His number one electoral campaign objective was focused on improving Iran's ailing economy. This concern led him to address the crippling sanctions that have deprived Iran of pivotal export earnings and led to run-away inflation and unemployment.

Rouhani needs to engage positively with the international community and the IAEA to free the economy from the shackles of international sanctions. This is no doubt a positive development, one that seems to vindicate advocates of sanctions in the United States. However, it is far from clear how Rouhani's presidency will address the domestic political, social and cultural grievances of the electorate. Will the regime show the same level of 'heroic flexibility' in relation to its own population?

Speaking Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have their say. Please click here if you are interested in contributing. Articles submitted for this section allow our readers to express their opinions and do not necessarily meet the same editorial standards of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.

Shahram Akbarzadeh is Professor of Middle East and Central Asian Politics at the University of Melbourne.

(Copyright 2013 Shahram Akbarzadeh)

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