Nuclear watchdog will want answers
By Barbara Slavin
WASHINGTON - A new report on Iran's nuclear program provides substantial
evidence that Iran carried out extensive research into how to make a nuclear
weapon prior to 2003, but is shaky about how much work has continued.
Citing "a wide variety of independent sources", including material from 10
member states and from a foreign scientist who worked on the program, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Tuesday that Iranians had
conducted multiple activities "relevant to the development of a nuclear
explosive device" from the late 1990s until 2003.
The material, listed in great detail in a 14-page annex to a regular IAEA
report on Iran, should provide ample new ammunition for the
agency and the international community to press Iran for answers and for
improved access to its nuclear facilities. There is no indication, however,
that Iran has actually built a nuclear weapon.
There is new information that Iran experimented with producing uranium metal
for a bomb, with high explosives needed to trigger a nuclear device, and
studied how to produce a warhead small enough to fit on a ballistic missile.
Satellite information shows Iran built a "large explosives containment vessel"
at a site near Tehran in which to conduct experiments, the report said.
"It remains for Iran to explain the rationale behind these activities," which
violate Iran's commitments to peaceful nuclear activities under the nuclear
Non-proliferation Treaty, the agency said.
The report is much less authoritative about what went on after 2003, when Iran
at least temporarily halted the program following the revelation that it was
building a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy water plant and
reactor at Arak.
"The agency's ability to construct an equally good understanding of activities
in Iran after the end of 2003 is reduced due to the more limited information
available to the agency," the report acknowledged.
Thus the findings appear to be consistent with a much maligned 2007 US National
Intelligence Estimate that expressed "medium confidence" that Iran had not
restarted a weaponization program at that time.
Conservative groups immediately pounced on the findings to demand harsh new
measures against Iran, including sanctioning Iran's central bank and retaining
"all options" - meaning a military attack.
"There can no longer be any doubt about the intent or direction of the Iran
nuclear weapons effort, which is progressing rapidly," said a statement by
Richard Stone and Malcolm Hoenlein, the chairman and executive vice chairman,
respectively, of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations.
"The report leaves no room for ambiguity and demands a quick, comprehensive
plan in which all options are included."
However, the main aspects of the program have been known for several years and
discussed in previous IAEA publications.
David Albright, a former nuclear inspector and president of the Institute for
Science and International Security, told Inter Press Service (IPS) that he was
comforted by the new evidence that "pressure worked" and that Iran stopped what
the IAEA called a "structured" program in 2003.
"It's important to know that they didn't succeed in building a reliable warhead
that could fit on one of their missiles," he said. "We're much better off that
it was stopped when it was."
He added, however, that the Iranians "know-how to build a nuclear weapon and
know the problems they have to solve to make them reliable."
Sourcing for allegations of Iranian work after 2003 is thin. For example, only
one unnamed IAEA member provided information that Iran had tried after 2004 to
manufacture elements of what is known as a neutron initiator, necessary to
trigger a chain reaction leading to a nuclear explosion.
Two unnamed member states were the source of allegations that in 2008 and 2009,
Iran carried out computer modeling of a nuclear device "subjected to shock
compression", another step in building a reliable bomb.
"There are new details but the overall picture that the report paints we have
heard before," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control
Association. "There is no new information about a new location or a new area of
experimentation."
The Iranian government had no immediate reaction to the report, which was given
to members of the IAEA board and swiftly leaked to the press. In the past,
Tehran has accused the IAEA of confronting it with forgeries, while admitting
that some research has taken place.
The Barack Obama administration was also subdued and suggested it would use the
information to press harder for a diplomatic solution, including tougher
enforcement of existing sanctions against Iran.
In some respects, the most worrisome aspects of the report were in its initial
pages devoted to Iran's safeguarded facilities. The report said Iran has
continued its slow but steady accumulation of enriched uranium and now has
nearly 5,000 kilograms of uranium enriched to 5% and nearly 74 kg of uranium
enriched to 20% U-235. If converted to weapons-grade uranium - which is 90%
U-235 - that stockpile is enough for several bombs.
The findings were revealed in advance of an IAEA board meeting next week that
is likely to be stormy.
"The most important thing is for Iran to come clean on weaponization," Albright
said. "If they deal with this, the enrichment program will be much less of a
problem."
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