If the most recent wave of
escalations in the Middle East is a bluff, it is a
very convincing one. Russian analysts speculate
that a military intervention against either Syria
or Iran (or both) could start by the end of the
month; the latter is still hard to imagine, but
the time frame seems to correspond to the nature
of the developments and the rate at which they are
being announced.
Barring a full-scale war
in the Middle East in the next few weeks, we could
think of what is happening on both sides as a
modern version of a war dance, a dress rehearsal
for a showdown and a spectacle for domestic
consumption, for the enemy and for the
international community alike.
There is a
widespread perception that the crises with both
Iran and Syria are nearing a climax. There is a
massive Western naval presence off the coasts of
both countries, and the opposing sides
are conducting war games at a
dizzying rate. In fact, it looks suspiciously as
if the games are an excuse for them to keep their
militaries on near-constant high alert (a
dangerous situation, not least because an isolated
incident or a miscalculation could lead to a
full-scale clash). The diplomatic war is near a
peak level as well.
Take the past 24 hours
or so. On Monday, the United Nations nuclear
agency confirmed an Iranian claim that it was
about to start enriching uranium at the
underground site at Fordo in Qom province,
stepping over another red line set by Israel and
the United States. In fact, the agency claimed
that Iran had already started the enrichment
process. [1] The United States Department of State
characterized the development as "a further
escalation", and Iran responded by announcing that
it had sentenced an American "spy" to death.
In this context the attempt by Iranian
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez to make light of the
situation [2] rings hollow and tasteless. Iran's
threats to close the Strait of Hormuz to traffic
galvanized the West, and several nations,
including the US, Britain, and, according to some
reports, France, sent warships to protect
commercial traffic. Last week, plans were
announced to tap emergency oil reserves in case
Tehran follows through with its threats (the
reserves are said to be sufficient for a month)
[3].
Meanwhile, Iran just finished one
large 10-day naval exercise, and announced another
next month [4]. The Islamic Republic has been
conducting land maneuvers in the last days as well
[5].
On the other side of the barbed wire,
Israel and the United States are preparing to hold
their "largest-ever" joint missile defense drill,
code-named "Austere Challenge 12". It should be
noted that this exercise comes on the heels of
several other large Israeli war games. Thousands
of American soldiers and sophisticated
anti-missile systems will land in Israel, and
according to a few reports, some of the force and
equipment will stay there for months.
Their presence will likely have a double
effect of helping Israel shoot down the thousands
of missiles aimed at it in the event of a regional
conflagration and adding pressure on the Jewish
state not to embark on any adventure alone.
In general, sources report an increased
rate of transfer of military equipment to American
bases around the Middle East in the last few weeks
and months. These are very clear preparations for
war; yet they need not mean that a strike on Iran
is imminent. Such an operation is a complicated
endeavor, even for the US.
Just as Iran
would need a certain period of time (known as
breakout time) from the moment it leaves the
nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to the moment it
builds a bomb, so would the United States need a
period of time from when it decides to strike to
when it does. It could take weeks if not months to
transfer the necessary military personnel,
airplanes and (especially) supplies to bases in
the region.
An attack on Iran is unlikely
to remain limited to the numerous nuclear
facilities; key other military facilities such as
anti-aircraft batteries, missile bases and
command-and-control structures will almost
certainly be targeted as well. Protecting the
Persian Gulf from Iranian mining crews would be no
easy task, either. In brief, the United States is
upping the ante in the brinkmanship game by
shortening its own response time in the event of a
war.
The escalations are, among other
things, a way of preparing world opinion for war -
something that President Barack Obama would be
very careful to do slowly and methodically in the
event he chooses to go down this path. Moreover
(and somewhat paradoxically), if the next month or
two pass and the war has not come, this would
spread further confusion about the inevitability
and the timing of the attack. It might even help
create a minor element of surprise for a future
attack.
There is another reason why the
US, and especially Israel, might be hesitant to
attack Iran just yet. According to analyst Eli
Lake, an Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic
would rely heavily on electronic warfare conducted
from drones [6]. However, when a month ago the
Iranians shot down a stealthy American drone,
reportedly by blocking its electronic
communications and spoofing its GPS navigation
system, they demonstrated that the success of such
a mission is not guaranteed. Presumably, Israel
and the US would need more than a few weeks to
counteract the sophisticated Russian equipment
which allegedly allowed the Iranians to carry out
the hacking attack.
On the other hand, the
situation in Syria is quickly approaching an
intolerable state. It could very well be that the
Western war dance against Iran is also a warning
to the Islamic Republic to stay out of anything
involving Syria. The regime of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad, a close Iranian ally, is
teetering on the brink as a civil war in the
country escalates.
Amid growing criticism
that the Arab League observer mission in the
country serves mainly to provide a cover for the
brutal repression carried out by the regime [7],
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made
another fiery speech on Monday that was widely
interpreted as a veiled threat that his country
would interfere to prevent a civil war in its
neighbor [8].
The level of Russian concern
about the situation in Syria, and about the fate
of its only naval base in the Mediterranean, which
is located in the Syrian city of Tartus, is
evident from the decision to send a flotilla led
by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov
as a show of support to Assad [9].
While
there is still a sliver of hope for negotiations
with Iran to succeed - the brinksmanship is also a
game of maneuvering for a better deal - Syria is
probably beyond hope. An optimistic scenario would
see Assad leaving the country in exchange for
immunity from persecution, but that is a tall
order, and would likely not prevent the
disintegration of central authority in the
country. An intervention of some sort appears
almost inevitable, although its timing and format
are hard to predict.
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