Palestinians grapple with
non-violence By Victor Kotsev
After several disastrous attempts to storm
Israel's borders and to break the Gaza blockade,
the Palestinians and their international allies
are gearing for a new campaign. On Friday,
thousands of activists are expected to march on
Jerusalem from Israel, the West Bank, Egypt,
Jordan and Lebanon; a couple of weeks later the
Israeli authorities expect a "fly-in" of another
several thousand people.
In the next
months, we could expect more marches and protests.
The timing, unfortunately, is hardly opportune -
the Arab Spring, which in theory could serve as
inspiration, is not faring very well, and the
powerful geopolitical shifts in the region are
likely to either drown out or hijack any attempt
at non-violence. Moreover, the activists have a
poor track record over the past years (see Gandhians
come thundering Asia Times Online, July 8,
2011).
They could find a few Israeli weak
spots - for example, several
Palestinian prisoners
started hunger strikes in the past months in order
to protest the morally and legally ambiguous
practice of administrative detention (imprisonment
for a period of time of up to six months at a time
without charge or trial). The Israeli authorities
eventually caved in, striking deals for the
release of two high-profile prisoners (Hana
Shalabi and Khader Adnan).
However, many
of the protests, including the upcoming one on
Friday, will likely involve provocations, such as
attempts to breach Israel's international borders,
and could also be accompanied by violence. Last
year's marches on Israel's northern borders with
Lebanon and Syria, which resulted in the death of
dozens, and the 2010 raid on the Turkish ship
Mavi Marmara, which left nine dead,
demonstrate that this danger is very real.
The occasion for Friday's "Global March to
Jerusalem" is Land Day - the commemoration of an
Israeli decision in 1976 to expropriate thousands
of dunams (a metric dunam is equal
to 1,000 square meters) of Arab land for security
purposes. This year's march has been in the works
for several months, but it is still unclear what
the turnout will be.
The background to it
is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic
standoff which has been simmering. According to
"foreign diplomats" cited by the Israeli daily
Ha'aretz, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has
dropped his recent threats to dissolve the
Palestinian Authority (and effectively to seek a
one-state solution). [1]
Although the
source is uncertain, this would make sense, since
by most accounts, Abbas' threat was a bluff (such
a step would bury the peace process, deprive him
from power, and draw condemnation from the United
States and the international community).
However, the rumored ultimatum that was at
the center of the intrigue is only one of several
initiatives that the Palestinian Authority has
undertaken in the past months in order to isolate
Israel internationally. Similarly to Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Abbas is keeping his
cards close to his chest; he has several options
to upset the basic status quo, including by
reviving the Palestinian bid for statehood at the
United Nations and by renewing the efforts to
reconcile with the rival Palestinian movement
Hamas.
More constructively, he could also
agree to restart the peace talks with Israel; the
latest Jordanian initiative aimed at that failed
in late January.
As part of the
Palestinian diplomatic campaign, the United
Nations Human Rights Council (where the
Palestinians enjoy overwhelming support) launched
a first-ever probe into Israel's West Bank
settlements. In response, Israel severed all ties
with the Council and poured scathing criticism on
it.
"This is a hypocritical council with
an automatic majority against Israel," Netanyahu
said, quoted by the news agency Ynet. "Until
today, the council has made 91 decisions, 39 of
which dealt with Israel, three Syria and one with
Iran." [2]
Still, despite this display of
bravado, Israel was clearly hurt by the move. On
Thursday, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny
Ayalon paid an uncharacteristic surprise visit to
the US, ostensibly in order to try to stop the
probe. [3]
Another part of the background
to this year's season of non-violent activism is
the continuing violence near Gaza and the Egyptian
border: on Thursday, most recently, several
missiles were reportedly launched into Israel, and
the Israeli Defense Forces conducted a "limited"
incursion in the Strip. [4]
Just below the
radar of most international media, tensions have
remained high both in Gaza and the West Bank.
Israeli settlers and Palestinian activists (some
armed in both groups) have been trading
provocations over the past weeks. Internal splits
also show: on Sunday, for example, the Israeli
High Court rejected the government's attempts to
block the evacuation of the illegal settlement
outpost Migron. [5] In a very different spirit,
however, recently released documents revealed that
the Israeli Defense Ministry had planned
substantial further land grabs in the West Bank.
[6]
While the pro-Palestinian activists
clearly have a few valid points to latch on, by
far not all of their goals and demands would be
considered fair by an impartial observer, and this
will hamper their efforts considerably. Sometimes
reality itself undercuts their rhetoric. Gaza, for
example, is often portrayed as an open-air prison
with a horrendous standard of life. This may be
true in comparison to Israel or the Western
countries; however, what such a way of framing of
the situation fails to reveal is that much of the
Arab world is even worse, and the fault is hardly
Israel's.
In a particularly revealing
recent comment, for example, the Egyptian
ambassador to the Palestinian territories
explained that Gaza's pressing fuel problem -
another sore issue and a source of tension - would
take some time to solve "due to the higher
standard of living in the Strip compared to some
cities and provinces here [in Egypt]". [7]
The Gaza fuel crisis sheds light also on
the broader geopolitical dynamic in the region.
The issue is that over the past years Hamas
started to rely exclusively on smuggled fuel from
Egypt in order to run Gaza's power station
(previously, Israel supplied the fuel), and when
Cairo cracked down on the contraband recently,
Gaza went dark.
According to a recent
Ha'aretz report, another reason why Egypt is
reluctant to supply Gaza with fuel is that "Egypt
is fearful such a link would be seen as absolving
Israel, Gaza's longtime occupier, of its
responsibility for territory". [8] In essence,
Cairo is afraid that, in the event the Palestinian
Authority is dissolved, Israel will push Gaza into
its arms. The strip is not economically
self-sufficient and is heavily dependent on trade
and supply links.
In the medium-to-longer
term, Egypt might well change its mind. Control
over Gaza, for example, could also mean a claim to
some of the shale gas deposits off of its shore;
given how quickly natural gas is gaining
popularity, in a few years running the strip could
even become a profitable enterprise for
cash-strapped post-revolutionary Cairo.
While the above is entirely in the realm
of speculation, it is not entirely improbable. In
part because of the gas and in part due to its
perennial strategic importance, the Levant is very
much in the focus of both established and emerging
powers. Even China has recently demonstrated a
keen interest. [9] As for Russia, another recent
Ha'aretz report has it that the second foreign
visit of the new-old Russian president Vladimir
Putin will be in Israel in June. [10]
In
the immediate future, the events in Syria and Iran
are likely to cast a shadow over the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as has happened in
the past. Currently, both regimes share an
interest in provoking a clash, in part in order to
turn world attention away from their own troubles.
In short, while moments of crisis are
moments of opportunity, as the saying goes, it is
hard to have high hopes for non-violence in the
Middle East this summer.
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