Aftershocks of the Egypt Spring on
Syria By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The Egyptian elections - just
like the revolution last year - have distracted
ordinary Syrians from the difficulties of their
day-to-day lives.
In January 2011, Syrians
were amazed by the will, might and courage of
Egyptian youth. They spent the 18 days of the
Egyptian Revolution glued to their TV sets, hoping
to see the end of president Hosni Mubarak, someone
who happened to be unpopular both with Syrian
officialdom and ordinary Syrians.
Syrian
officials hated Mubarak because of the bad blood
between him and Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in
Lebanon and President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Ordinary Syrians disliked the man because
of his tough and often
harsh stance vis-a-vis
the Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip.
So for whatever reason, all Syrians
cheered his downfall in February 2011.
That one voice has vanished today, as
Syrians closely monitor the upcoming presidential
elections in Egypt. Opponents of the Arab Spring
are pointing to Egypt as a "perfect example of a
failed state", claiming that the elections are a
sham and subject of ridicule.
Syrian
democracy advocates, however, are enchanted by
Egypt, seeing it as a dream come true for Arab
democrats as the body count mounts in their own
country after more than a year of bitter unrest.
Critics have plenty of reasons to trash
the Egyptian elections. One is the ambition of
unqualified candidates, like pop singer Saed
al-Soughayar, who voiced his presidential
ambitions last month.
Another is the April
14 decision of the Supreme Presidential Electoral
Commission to disqualify candidates who had held
senior government office under Mubarak during the
past 10 years of his term, like former
intelligence chief and vice president Omar
Suleiman and ex-prime minister Ahmad Shafiq.
That sounds very undemocratic, critics
say, especially amid hopes that despite his
human-rights record, Suleiman was a powerful man
with experience, plenty of international
connections, who knew what it took to pull a
country back together and get it on its feet
again. Syrian activists are claiming that Suleiman
should either get arrested, and face a safe trial,
or be given his full rights as an Egyptian
citizen.
Also worrying to them is the
rising influence of the Egyptian Muslim
Brotherhood, via presidential candidates Khairat
al-Shater and Abdul Monem Abu al-Futuh. After
overrunning the Egyptian parliament, the
Brotherhood is expected to produce a president,
now that the chains of oppression imposed on them
by the Mubarak regime are gone, and after they
were empowered by the victory of like-minded
Islamic parties in Morocco, Tunisia and Libya.
Seculars around the Arab world, especially
pro-regime ones in Syria, are pointing to Egypt
with concern, saying that if Egypt becomes
Islamic, this will have a domino effect on the
entire Arab world. They are using Egypt to scare
off Syrian Christians, for example, as to what
would happen in Damascus if there were regime
change in Syria.
They are critical of the
trial of Mubarak, despite the complete lack of
respect for him, claiming that a president should
be treated with more dignity, arguing that what
Egypt needs now is a Mubarak-lite - a strongman
who can enforce law and order.
On the
other hand, those who admire what is happening in
Egypt say that after almost 100 years in the
underground, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is
entitled to try its hand at the Egyptian
presidency. In a true democracy, if they fail to
deliver, they will be voted out of office, with
little respect or ceremony, in the next
parliamentary and presidential elections.
Those who are pragmatic argue that the
biggest setback for the Brotherhood would be for
them to transform from underground utopian
politicians into statesmen and government
officials. Government corrupts, after all, and the
biggest setback to the Iraqi and Syrian Ba'ath,
for example, or to Hamas and Fatah in Palestine,
was the minute they were sworn into office.
Overnight, these groups transformed into
power-hungry politicians who failed to appease the
same street that had supported them during their
years in the background. In theory, the Egyptian
Muslim Brotherhood would be no different to the
failed example of Hamas in Gaza, the Ba'ath in
Syria and Iraq, or Fatah in the West Bank.
Also, in a real democracy, anybody is
entitled to run for presidential office, and the
best man, or woman, would win at the polls.
Political nobodies like Saed al-Soughayar can run
for office, in theory, but that does not mean that
they will win, and nor is it an insult to the
presidential institution in Cairo.
Under
Mubarak, that institution became semi-divine,
reserved exclusively for Mubarak and his ambitious
son Gamal. That aura is now being shattered, as
the presidency comes back to life and its original
proportions: no more absolute powers and no more
president for life.
And finally, when it
comes to Suleiman, although he might be capable of
running Egypt, his election - if it ever happened
- would have been the kiss of death for the Arab
Spring.
This same man only one year ago
had watched and played a part in the suppression
of Egyptian demonstrators. Admirers of Egypt are
also pointing to the paramount role that the
Egyptian judiciary is now playing, arguing that
this is a clear sign that Egypt is on the right
track towards a steady, yet perhaps slow recovery.
What is amazing about Egypt is that 15
months ago, nobody would have imagined
presidential elections in Cairo without Hosni or
Gamal Mubarak.
Nobody would have imagined
a Hosni Mubarak behind bars and nobody would have
imagined Egypt distancing itself from Israel,
after the storming of the embassy in Cairo and the
cancelation of an Egyptian gas deal with Israel.
The presidential ambition of Egyptian candidates
is a healthy sign that democracy is on the rise,
and so is a sophisticated feeling of
responsibility, good citizenship, and belonging
among not only Egypt's political elite, but its
day-to-day citizens as well.
In Syria,
nobody imagined that one day young demonstrators
would take to the streets, demanding regime change
in Damascus, inspired by the Arab Spring in
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.
Nobody imagined
that the state would be forced, under pressure
from those same angry demonstrators, to change the
constitution (regardless of how feeble that change
was) and drop Article 8, which designated the
Ba'ath Party as ruler of state and society.
One year ago, nobody imagined that United
Nations blue helmets would one day be mandated to
monitor a ceasefire in Syria, and that this
authority would come through a unanimous UN
Security Council Resolution.
Logical
analysis spells out democratic elections in Syria,
not too far from now. The parliament that will be
voted in in Syria in May cannot last, because it
is nothing but an assortment of pro-regime
officials who speak the same rhetoric, making it
no different from any other chamber Syria has had
since the 1960s.
Syrians are certain that
once the violence stops, Syria will march towards
a real democracy, just like Tunisia, Libya, Yemen
and Egypt, via real parliamentary elections and
early presidential ones.
The last time
Syrians had more than one candidate in a
presidential election was in 1955. The last time
an assortment of candidates ran for presidential
office, just like Egypt today, was in 1932. Back
then, six presidential hopefuls competed for the
presidency, exactly 80 years ago. If it happened
once in Syria, then it can happen again; it must
happen again.
Sami Moubayed is a
university professor, historian, and
editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
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