US
caught between Iran and Israel By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
With less than a
month to the much-anticipated meeting in Baghdad
between Iran and the "P5+1" nations, indications
are that the two sides are seriously contemplating
successful talks that could yield a mutually
acceptable breakthrough and pave the way to a
gradual resolution of the Iran nuclear crisis.
The "P5+1", also known as the "Iran Six" -
the permanent members of the United Nations
Security Council (the United States, Britain,
France, China and Russia) plus Germany - have been
involved in negotiations with Iran for several
years over its nuclear program, which in some
quarters is said to be designed towards building
nuclear weapons, something Tehran steadfastly
denies.
In Moscow, a clue was given by
Iran's ambassador, Reza Sajjadi, who said that
Tehran was now considering a Russian plan to halt
any expansion of its
nuclear program and thus avoid the European threat
to impose an oil embargo effective this July.
Sajjadi was also reported as saying that a
deal may be in the making for Iran to agree to an
Additional Protocol of the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty - to which Iran is a
signatory - that would allow UN inspectors to make
"immediate, impromptu visits to Iran's nuclear
sites".
Meanwhile, European negotiators
are busy discussing with their Iranian
counterparts the nature of an agenda and framework
for discussion in Baghdad, hoping to reach "very
concrete results", to paraphrase Catherine Ashton,
the EU's foreign policy chief, who has sounded
upbeat ever since the Istanbul meeting earlier
this month that saw a resumption of talks after a
lengthy hiatus.
None of this optimism,
however, is shared by Israel, whose Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has criticized the Istanbul
talks as "giving freebees to Iran" by agreeing to
hold more talks in Iraq, a charge denied by US
President Barack Obama.
"The notion that
somehow we've given something away or a 'freebie'
would indicate Iran has gotten something. In fact,
they've got some of the toughest sanctions that
they're going to be facing coming up in just a few
months if they don't take advantage of these
talks," the president was reported as saying.
Undeterred, Netanyahu has escalated his
rhetoric by insisting that Iran must halt all of
its enrichment activities, and not just the 20%
enrichment, as US officials had requested in
Istanbul. Netanyahu said this on Tuesday during a
prime time interview with CNN, where he once again
accused Iranian leaders of being ideological
zealots rather than being "rational", as even his
own generals have admitted.
Netanyahu has
expressed concern that the five weeks between the
rounds of talks would give Iran more time to
continue enriching uranium without restrictions.
Israel has proposed pre-emptive military strikes
on Iran's nuclear facilities, something the US has
sought to prevent.
This was followed by a
blistering verbal volley against Tehran by
Israel's ambassador to US, Michael Oren, who used
the Holocaust Memorial Day to accuse Iran's
supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, of
being the Adolf Hitler of the Middle East bent on
the "destruction of six million Jews", ie causing
a second Holocaust.
Previously, this label
had been reserved for Iran's President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad and this is the first time Israel has
escalated its rhetoric by attaching it to Iran's
highest authority, who has issued a religious
verdict, fatwa, against nuclear weapons.
Clearly, Israel's intention is to force
the White House to adopt a more hawkish stance at
the Baghdad meeting and to make the military
threat even more credible so that Tehran will give
into its demands.
The fact that Mitt
Romney, the Republican candidate presidential
hopeful, is exploiting the issue to accuse Obama
of not doing enough to assist Israel is a major
plus for Israel's strategy that, in turn, puts
Obama in the awkward position of how to reach a
viable compromise with Iran without alienating his
powerful Jewish supporters and thus risk his bid
for a second term.
According to a Tehran
University political science professor who spoke
to the author on the condition of anonymity,
Israel's comparison of Iran with Nazis is "pure
rubbish" and there is no better refutation than
the fact that Iran's Jewish minority freely
practice their religion and have seats in the
parliament (majlis).
"I am not optimistic
that Obama can stand up to the Jewish lobby on
Iran, even though this means blocking needed
US-Iran dialogue on regional security issues in
Baghdad," the professor said.
Iraq's Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki was in Tehran last week
for consultations on the brewing crisis in
Kurdistan and Syria and the Baghdad meeting could
serve as a forum for mediation between the US and
Iran, who have a broad range of topics to discuss
above and beyond the nuclear issue, including
Afghanistan.
Thus, whereas in Istanbul
Iran's negotiators refused to hold bilateral talks
with the US representatives, on the sidelines in
Baghdad they may be inclined to do so.
A
net gain for Baghdad and its self-marketing as a
hub of regional diplomacy after hosting an Arab
League summit recently, the coming meeting is also
a net loss for Turkey, accused of meddling in
Iraq's Kurdish affairs by Baghdad, and a personal
affront to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
who told the media in early April that the "Iran
Six" nations would not go to Baghdad. Clearly he
was wrong.
On the nuclear issue, Tehran
has been improving its relations with the
International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's
nuclear watchdog, and also hinting at some
compromise at 20% enrichment, that is, signaling
that it will not produce more than what is
necessary, and already Iran has enough fuel for 10
years for its medical reactor.
Israel's
spoiler behavior illustrates that it views the
Iran nuclear issue as a functional crisis that
serves its interests, to depict itself as a victim
of future Iranian aggression, while the problems
in the Occupied Territories where Israel is
accused of aggression are almost forgotten by the
world community.
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