Bibi
unrattled by early election
noise By Victor Kotsev
Seemingly out of the blue, the
relationship between the parties in Israel's
governing coalition is on the rocks and a decision
on whether early elections will be held (and when)
is expected shortly.
Several prominent
political figures, including acting government
ministers, have come out in favor of such a move
in the past days. Much of the speculation
currently centers on whether the elections will be
held in August or September, as Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to prefer, or
later.
On the one hand, the underlying
issues - such as enlistment of ultra-Orthodox Jews
into the Israeli army and settlement outpost
evacuations - are fairly minor, at least at a
first glance.
As a prominent Israeli
academic and intellectual interviewed by
Asia Times Online put it,
nothing seems strong enough to warrant early
elections. (A similarly placed source reached for
comments last week, just before the crisis erupted
in full, rejected this possibility outright.)
On the other hand, such a move could serve
both the domestic and the foreign policy agenda of
Netanyahu and the Israeli right, as it promises to
cement Likud's (Netanyahu's party) lead in the
polls and to catch unprepared several major new
opponents who appeared on the Israeli political
scene recently.
Moreover, assuming a
comfortable win by Netanyahu it would strengthen
the government's hand in dealing with major
international challenges such as the Iranian
nuclear program, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
and the Arab Spring.
At the very least, it
would provide Netanyahu with a opportunity to save
face while letting the Americans negotiate with
Iran a little longer; in a slightly more
speculative scenario, it could also help the
Israeli prime minister weather the storm among his
core constituency should he choose to support a
compromise between the United States and Iran that
does not meet his own stated criteria.
Alternatively, moreover, the distraction
of elections could provide a cover for a surprise
Israeli operation - surprise being a key element
of Israeli military doctrine - and a domestic
victory would strengthen Netanyahu's bargaining
hand against United States President Barack Obama.
In retrospect - if we can speak of
hindsight based on what is still only speculation
about early elections - there were warning signs.
Netanyahu's decision to call lightning Likud
primaries in December, catching his main opponents
inside the party unaware (the polls were held in
January and he won comfortably) is one. Back then,
the decision elicited a certain amount of
speculation that it might harbinger early general
elections, but the noise died down relatively
soon.
Now it seems that the Israeli prime
minister is keen to repeat the coup on a national
level. He and his supporters may be overconfident,
which is always a liability in politics (some
Likud activists reportedly claimed they could win
over 40% of the Israeli Knesset [parliament]
seats) but nevertheless they appear to enjoy
widespread popular support. According to the
latest opinion polls, they stand to win at least a
quarter of the Knesset seats [1] and increase
their parliamentary presence by over 10% (30 seats
as opposed to 27 currently). [2]
Overall,
the right-of-center block is expected to increase
its advantage over the left-of-center block
slightly.
To be fair, even though the
issues causing the cracks inside the government
look minor, they cannot be overcome easily. The
coalition over which Netanyahu presides is made up
of parties that never saw eye to eye on basic
social issues; now some of these issues are
bubbling up, and while the timing is suspect, one
could argue that it was always only a matter of
time before the government fell apart.
As
Israeli journalist Yossi Verter observes in an
article dated April 22, "The settlements, Ulpana
and Migron; an alternative to the Tal Law
exempting most yeshiva students from military
service, which expires in July and the major
difficulty the government has in passing a
reduction-heavy budget - these are all very high
hurdles, almost too high, for a government in its
fourth year." [3] (For an insightful discussion of
some issues surrounding the drafting of
ultra-Orthodox religious students in the army, see
also Amos Harel's article "Haredim and the IDF: A
crisis with no solution?") [4]
However,
these time bombs notwithstanding, the real roots
of the early elections speculation are likely very
different. They pertain to the inevitable desire
of those in power to stay in power, as well as to
several domestic and international developments.
A month ago, Israel's main opposition
party Kadima (which in fact holds more Knesset
seats than the Likud but was elbowed out of the
ability to form a government) acquired a new
leader: the former chief of staff of the Israeli
army Shaul Mofaz. He took the place of Tzipi
Livni, a former foreign minister, who was widely
perceived as an ineffective leader of the
opposition.
It was widely anticipated
that, aided by his tough security credentials and
his allegedly more pragmatic political positions,
Mofaz would be in a much better position to
challenge Netanyahu than Livni ever was. Mofaz had
proposed his own peace plan in 2009 [5], and soon
after winning the Kadima primaries this year he
set out to plan a series of measures, including
tapping the social protests which are again
expected in Israel this summer, to cast himself as
a viable alternative to the current government.
However, by most accounts, he needs time
in order to set his political program in motion,
and an early election might put a spoke in his
wheels.
Netanyahu faces a different
challenge from several more recently retired
high-ranking security officials, including the
legendary chief of the Mossad (Israeli foreign spy
service), Meir Dagan, the former chief of the army
Gabi Ashkenazi, and the former head of the
counter-intelligence service Yuval Diskin. In
fact, the government current crisis broke out in
full after a series of exchanges over the weekend,
in which these - and other prominent former and
current officials - argued over the government's
policy. [6]
All three above-mentioned
security officials seem to be eyeing political
careers; they are bound by law to a three-year
cooling period, yet there have been calls -
specifically by Israel's Labor party - to reduce
this period [7]. Besides, a prime minister can
circumvent the cooling period by appointing a
former security official to a ministerial position
as an independent expert; in any case, Netanyahu
likely sees them as formidable opponents in the
not too distant future.
Not least, in
January this year a star Israeli journalist - Yair
Lapid - announced that he was leaving the world of
media in order to join that of politics. He
promised to revive Israeli politics, and
subsequently established a new party called "Yesh
Atid" ("There is Future"). His early popularity
seems to have dropped somewhat, and he does not
draw much support from Netanyahu's power base
(which makes him less of a threat), but given
time, he could nevertheless present a new wild
card in Israeli politics.
By most
accounts, Netanyahu and his right-wing allies are
best prepared for elections. This may well have
pushed the prime minister to let the cracks in the
coalition spread almost to the point of no return.
However, there are also major foreign policy
considerations at play.
There are
increasing indications, for example, that a deal
between the United States and Iran may be in the
works over the disputed Iranian nuclear program.
Even the more recent muscle flexing - such as the
announcement that the US had sent F-22 stealth
fighter planes to bases near the Persian Gulf -
seems to be a bluff, a sign of haggling over the
specifics of the agreement (such as Iran would be
allowed to enrich uranium to five or 20%), rather
than real threats. This, however, presents a
serious dilemma to Netanyahu, who has promised to
stop the Iranian nuclear program and reportedly
considers the American concessions too generous.
The Israeli premier was reportedly
rebuffed by Obama over the past weeks as he tried
to push for a military option. Dr Gershon Baskin,
a prominent figure in the Israeli peace movement
and the director of the Israel Palestine Center
for Research and Information, told Asia Times
Online: "I am pretty sure that the message he got
in Washington was 'don't even think about it.
You'll get no support in the United States, in
Washington, from anyone. Not from the military,
not from the CIA [Central Intelligence Agency],
not from the president, and not even from
congress. So don't even consider striking Iran
now'."
According to other reports,
Netanyahu asked for a suitable price for delaying
a strike on Iran - over US$1 billion for missile
defenses, on top of the over $3 billion Israel
already receives annually. [8]
This means
that he is considering delaying an attack by at
least a few months, possibly longer. Such a
development would present a challenge to him: not
only would he lose face domestically, but he also
he could also undermine the credibility of the
Israeli threat against the Islamic Republic, which
has arguably contributed greatly to the
international effort to stop the Iranian nuclear
program.
An electoral campaign would
provide the perfect excuse to avoid losing
momentum while giving diplomacy a chance to run
its course. Assuming that the elections are held -
and the whole thing is not an elaborate bluff - a
convincing Netanyahu victory would strengthen
rather than detract from the credibility of the
militant Israeli rhetoric.
The re-elected
prime minister would have less to worry about in
case of a botched attack on the Islamic Republic,
and this would in many ways untie his hands. At
the very least, the elections would represent a
symbolic referendum on Netanyahu's policy, and if
successful, he would have considerably greater
leverage to go against the will of the American
president.
We could imagine also a
radically different peaceful outcome of a
Netanyahu victory: he could, for example, form a
more moderate coalition next time around, perhaps
by allying himself with some of the newcomers on
the Israeli political scene. In turn, the death of
Netanyahu's famous father Benzion Netanyahu in
Jerusalem at the age of 102 on Monday, according
to some speculation, could liberate the prime
minister of certain historic burdens. [9]
Add to this mix a suitable amount of
pressure on Israel following the US elections -
assuming Obama is also re-elected - and some truly
incredible developments could follow, both
vis-a-vis Iran and on the Palestinian track. For
now, however, these are wild speculations, and
only the future will show what the Israeli prime
minister intends - and is capable of.
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