Iran
hopes for socialist victory By
Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Tehran is abuzz with
optimism that it may no longer have to deal with
the hawkish and Islamophobic Nicolas Sarkozy,
widely considered the staunchest pro-Israel French
president ever, if he is voted out of office in
run-off elections on Sunday and replaced by the
comparatively more moderate socialist candidate,
Francois Hollande.
We will know shortly
whether or not this optimism is warranted; what is
beyond doubt is that a Hollande victory would be a
good omen for French-Iran relations that are
presently at a low ebb and could conceivably grow
worse if Sarkozy somehow manages a surprise
victory despite trailing Hollande by several
points in opinion polls on the eve of the
election.
With crucial Iran nuclear talks
in Baghdad on May 23, Hollande - if president -
could demonstrate a foreign policy shift by
adopting a more independent posture than the
US-subservient approach of his predecessor, who
closely followed the US's footsteps in the
Middle East, and
especially in punishing Iran over its nuclear
program.
In turn, this could spur the
White House to be more serious about finding a
diplomatic solution, instead of constantly playing
with the fire of military confrontation with Iran,
which some suspect is pursing a nuclear weapons
program, something Tehran denies.
In the
event this materializes in tandem with other
similar gestures by a new French president who has
explicitly called for a more "balanced" world
order, we are likely to witness a dramatic
increase in France's diplomatic influence in the
nuclear standoff, as well as Paris's ability to
petition for the release of opposition "Green"
movement leaders who are under house arrest in
Iran.
At present, because of Sarkozy's
lack of credibility with Tehran, France has less
than zero power of persuasion with Iran's leaders,
who have time and again expressed their strong
disapproval of Sarkozy's policy choices toward the
Middle East, not to mention his and his party's
behavior towards Muslims in France.
This
may change overnight if Hollande is elected and
then makes a personal appeal to Tehran for the
freedom of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi,
two left-leaning presidential candidates who are
accused of sedition for inciting post-election
disturbances in Iran. Karoubi was a candidate in
the 2005 and 2009 presidential elections that saw
Mahmud Ahmadinejad come into and then retain the
position. Mousavi contested the 2009 election.
According to a Tehran University political
science professor who spoke to the author on the
condition of anonymity, Hollande's victory could
have a "disproportionate impact in the Middle
East. It would mean the onset of more independent
European politics that could be replicated in
Germany and Italy next year since they also have
elections coming up, and that spells trouble for
Israel as well as the US and its trans-Atlantic
alliance."
As if sensing the importance of
a more balanced French foreign policy, Sarkozy has
now come up with the pledge to travel to Israel
and push for the dormant Middle East peace
process, a forgotten agenda during his first term
in office.
Yet, by all indications, such
last-minute policy adjustments are too late, with
a left turn in French politics expected, spurred
by a sluggish economy, Sarkozy's divisive and
elitist politics and the political enthusiasm
generated by the populist appeal of Hollande for
middle- and working-class voters.
Although
some Western media have branded him as "a danger
to France and Europe", Hollande could turn out to
be the opposite - a messenger of peace,
representing what Europe desperately needs, an
uplift in its image as a kinder and gentler
continent.
Thus, compared with Sarkozy,
who was completely sold to the American-Israeli
pattern of coercive policy vis-a-vis Iran,
Hollande is apt to pursue a markedly different
track that emphasizes dialogue and cooperation as
an incentive for eradicating escalating tensions.
If this rubs off on the rest of Europe and
Iran begins to sense healthy new politics
dominating the European scene, then it will be
more amenable to show flexibility on the nuclear
front.
Improved Iran-French relations
could have serious economic implications in terms
of boosting their bilateral relations and even
raising the prospect of nuclear cooperation, given
France's advanced nuclear reactor technology.
Although Tehran does not expect any
significant immediate foreign policy change by a
Hollande government, assuming that he wins on
Sunday, nonetheless it is fairly convinced that
Hollande's foreign policy statements, such as his
intention to accelerate the French exit from
Afghanistan, reflect a new type of leader who
could be considered as a serious counterpart in
dialogue.
A key issue that is bound to
come up at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) summit meeting in the US this month
concerns the US's missile defense system in Europe
that both Hollande and his leftist supporters have
openly questioned.
An issue of security
concern for both Tehran and Moscow, this is an
area where Hollande can exert influence and push
for NATO reconsideration, particularly if the
Baghdad nuclear talks go well and finally
culminate in a resolution that puts to rest
Europe's worry over possible Iranian nuclear-armed
missiles. Inevitably, this will introduce some new
US-French rifts that will weaken Washington's
Russia policy as well as its Iran policy.
At the same time, a Hollande victory may
prove to be a boon for US President Barack Obama,
who is challenged by a vintage capitalist
Republican hopeful, Mitt Romney. Hollande's stated
plans for taxing the rich and increasing the
government's job-creation efforts resonate with
many American voters who may be influenced against
the right-wing Romney by the French example. A
re-elected Obama, unhinged from campaign
pressures, could well prioritize Middle East peace
in tandem with Hollande, as well as any other
leftist European leader in the coming years.
None of the above is welcome news for
Israel, which has a vested interest in the
right-wing status quo in mainland Europe that is
now in the throes of a subtle though significant
political shift.
Losing the close allay
Sarkozy would hit Israel hard, adding to the still
fresh concern of losing reliable partners in
corrupt and dictatorial Arab leaders such as Hosni
Mubarak of Egypt.
Faced with the prospect
of weakening Western support, Israel will likely
encounter tough choices, and it is far from given
that it will accommodate itself to the shifting
political winds.
"Israel stands to be a
net loser in the French elections and that is
worrisome for its leaders," says the Tehran
professor. The question is: can Tehran and Paris
prove winners in what should be a "win-win"
scenario?
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