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2 Syria:
America versus Israel By
Giorgio Cafiero
The "Arab Spring" reached
Syria in March 2011 when Syrian intellectuals,
students, and union leaders appeared on the
streets to demand greater transparency, political
liberalization, and economic reforms. Although
they did not participate in the initial series of
demonstrations, Syrian Islamists joined the
opposition after the regime responded with force
to the public display of dissent.
As the
violence has escalated and taken more than 9,000
lives, foreign powers have exploited the carnage
to advance their geopolitical interests. The
United States and other powers have used the
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as a proxy to topple the
Syrian Ba'athist regime,
which has governed for almost half a century.
Washington's two primary interests in
Syria are to strengthen the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC - namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates)
vis-a-vis Iran and to undermine Russia's power and
influence in the Middle East and Mediterranean.
Israel shares the US interest in cutting off Iran
and Russia's reach into the Levant.
However, security considerations
surrounding the unknown variables of a post-Bashar
al-Assad Syria appear to have created a divide
between US and Israeli strategies, as the Benjamin
Netanyahu government has not followed US President
Barack Obama's course on Syria. The Israeli
concerns surrounding the collapse of Syria's
Ba'athist party are legitimate. Washington should
also consider the security consequences of Assad's
ouster and avoid intervention in Syria.
US intentions in Syria Following
Syria's independence from French colonial rule,
relations with the United States have been largely
defined by mistrust and conflict of interest.
Beginning in 1956, in coordination with Saudi
Arabia, the Dwight D Eisenhower administration
sought covertly to overthrow Syria's left-wing
nationalist government. During the late 1970s and
early 1980s, through Jordan and Israel, Washington
backed the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood's armed
uprising against the regime of Hafez Assad.
Since 1982, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood
has been in exile (primarily in Spain and
Switzerland). However, according to The Washington
Post, "after three decades of persecution that
virtually eradicated its presence, the Syrian
Muslim Brotherhood has resurrected itself to
become the dominant group in the fragmented
opposition movement pursuing a 14-month uprising
against Assad."
The US alliance with an
Islamist organization that espouses anti-Western
views may appear strange. However, this
relationship is far from unprecedented. Syria is
only one country where Washington supported
Islamists to undermine nationalist and leftist
forces.
This alliance between the United
States and Islamist organizations was widespread
throughout the Muslim world during the Cold War,
as Washington deemed such forces - Zia ul-Haq in
Pakistan, the Mujahideen of Afghanistan, Abu Qurah
in Jordan, and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt -
to be reliable partners in the effort to undermine
Communism and Arab nationalism. After the Soviet
Union imploded in 1991, the United States
continued to foster alliances with Islamist groups
to undermine governments that did not cooperate
with the "New World Order".
During the
1990s, Washington covertly provided Iraqi Islamist
parties, including the Islamic Call (Al-Dawa) and
the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in
Iraq, with millions of dollars to strengthen Iraqi
opposition to Saddam Hussein. Today, militant
Islamist organizations such as Jundullah and
Mujahadeen e-Kalk target Iran. Both organizations,
though officially labeled as "terrorist"
organizations by the US State Department, receive
direct aid from Washington. In other words, Syria
is not the only country where militant Islamists
have received support from the United States in
their campaign to topple a regime opposed to US
hegemony.
Present US support for Syrian
Islamists is part of a larger proxy war. The
United States, Turkey, and the GCC are pushing for
Assad's demise, while Russia, China, Iran, and
Hezbollah seek to ensure Assad's survival. US
interest in Assad's downfall relates to its
overall position vis-a-vis Iran and Russia, and by
extension China.
Washington is skeptical
about launching a military strike on Iran's
nuclear facilities. However, by toppling Iran's
closest regional ally, the United States believes
that it can undermine the Islamic Republic's
regional influence by striking a blow to the
Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Hezbollah axis of power
from Iran to the Mediterranean, which Jordan's
King Abdullah nervously identified as the "Shia
crescent."
Washington is assuming that the
Muslim Brotherhood, the most influential party
within the Istanbul-based Syrian National Council,
would end the Iran-Syria alliance if it came to
power. The organization's deputy secretary,
Mohammed Faruk Tayfur, told The Washington Times
on January 18 that the Muslim Brotherhood rejects
Iran's offers to mediate talks between the Assad
regime and the opposition.
The deputy
secretary defined his ideology and vision for
Syria by comparing Turkey and Iran's versions of
political Islam. "Islamic culturally and secular
politically, [Turkey] is the model for the Islamic
movement ... the Iranian, on the other hand, is
the worst."
Then there's the religious
dimension. The Assad regime is mainly composed of
Syrian Alawites, who adhere to a form of Islam
derived from the Shiism practiced in Iran. Many
orthodox Sunni, who form the majority in Syria, do
not consider Alawites to be legitimate Muslims.
The Islamic Republic's attempts to expand Shiism
throughout the Arab world, especially in Syria,
have fostered intense hatred for Iran within
certain conservative Sunni circles that would
likely influence the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood's
foreign policy vis-a-vis Iran and Hezbollah.
The collapse of the Assad regime would
almost inevitably decrease Russian power in the
Middle East and the Mediterranean. Syria has
hosted Russia's naval base in Tartus for several
decades and, since 1971, Syria has been Moscow's
closest Arab ally. Syria is the largest Arab
purchaser of Russian weapons and is seen by Moscow
as Russia's doorstep into the Middle East and
Mediterranean.
The Muslim Brotherhood has
condemned Russia and China for providing Assad
with weapons and diplomatic support throughout
2011 and 2012. On February 6, 2012 the Syrian
Muslim Brotherhood's spokesman, Zouheir Salem,
stated that his organization "consider[s] Russia,
China and Iran as direct accomplices to the
horrible massacre being carried out against our
people." By supplying the Syrian government with
weapons and/or diplomatic backing, the three
countries were "directly participating in the
massacre of [Syria's] defenseless people".
If the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood removed
Syria from Moscow and Tehran's spheres of
influence and aligned Damascus with Washington,
Ankara, Riyadh, and Doha, the regional balance of
power would shift in favor of the United States.
Israel's interests Israel would
welcome the decline of Iranian influence in the
Levant, as Iran is Israel's gravest threat,
according to Israeli leaders. However, Israel is
not proactively seeking to weaken Iran by
supporting Assad's opposition. Alia Brahimi and
George Joffe summarize Israel's Syria dilemma:
The one state that is directly
implicated by the events in Syria, but which
still has taken no public position, is Israel.
This is almost certainly because the Israeli
Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the
Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity
and any new regime could severely destabilize
the effective balance-of-power between two
uneasy neighbors ... The hawks in Israel will
see the need to determine which poses more of a
threat: the "Islamic fundamentalist" Shia state,
or the "Islamic fundamentalist" Sunni groups who
are sure to gain a foothold in Syria if Assad's
regime suddenly caves in.
Whether
Israel would be in a stronger position with Assad
or Sunni Islamists in power is the center of
debate amongst geopolitical analysts. Nonetheless,
Israel's reluctance to support Syria's opposition
likely indicates its calculation that Assad's
survival is in Israel's interest, at least for
now.
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