SPEAKING
FREELY Yemen's problems run deeper than
security By George Kosmidis
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please
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contributing.
Below the surface of
drone strikes and violence, Yemen is a country
struggling with deeper problems. The end of bloody
protests during the Arab Spring and a 33-year
presidency gave some Yemenis inspiration that the
road to socio-economic and political change is
near.
This road however, is riddled with
challenges deeper than al-Qaeda cells and
insurgents. The deeper problems in Yemen are the
high-unemployment rates, widespread poverty, lack
of food, and economic under-development. It is
indeed a sad storyline that
reminds the world how
resource mismanagement can hinter economic
progress and development. There are strategies and
inspiration that Yemen can adopt to move forward
in a positive direction.
Yemen is one of
the poorest countries in the Arab World because of
its economic under-development. This is a
continuing problem that was not addressed under
president Ali Abdullah Saleh and is continuing
into Abd Rabbuh Mansur Al-Hadi's tenure as
president. Yemeni oil-production makes up 25%
of its gross domestic product (GDP) and almost 70%
of the country's revenue. Economic growth outside
of oil was restricted largely to commerce and
transportation. Yemen's oil years since the
north-south unification in 1990 did little to
stimulate the productive aptitude of Yemen's
economy. Instead, the government became entirely
dependent on oil and revenue was put into the
pockets of corrupt officials and not to updating
infrastructure or social services projects.
Yemen has tried to harness and export
reserves of natural gas out of fear that oil
production in the country will peak within the
next 15 to 20 years and ultimately run out,
consequentially removing a chunk of its export
economy. Oil is not the only resource running dry
as water in the country is also set to run out
within about the same timeframe if not sooner.
To make sustaining resource development
more difficult, Yemen's current population growth
rate is at about 2.5% and its unemployment rate
near 35%. At this rate, Yemen will ultimately
begin to feel its economy totally collapsing.
Natural resources are an asset for Yemen, but
their benefit to the economy depends upon the
government's ability to use the resources
productively for long-term growth.
There
are ways for Yemen to diversify its economy away
from the oil and gas sectors. Yemen has a mining
and mineral sector that could yield potentials in
revenue if the security situation improves. If
Abyan can be stabilized, then the use of Aden as a
prominent port can be profitable in the future.
Historically, Yemen had success using the city as
a deep-water port and free trade zone. Tourism in
the country has also decreased due to violence and
turmoil.
The country possesses culturally
pristine elements of architecture and natural
beauty. The country remains under-developed and
intriguingly provides a historic, virtually
untouched environment by modern development. These
three sectors could also potentially increase
Yemen's labor force and thus open up opportunities
for domestic labor instead of unemployed Yemenis
trying to flee to other countries such as Saudi
Arabia for work. Exploiting these three sectors
will not hinge Yemen's economy, however these
sectors can further develop and coincide with
current oil and gas sectors as a base for future
development.
Internationally, it is
important for Yemen to continue to work with
international financial institutions such as the
World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Temporary multi-lateral aid is not a permanent
solution, however it is patchwork that Yemen needs
to stand on its own two feet for the short term.
Yemen has received a multi-year US$370
million aid package on behalf of the IMF as of
2010 that will expire at the end of 2012, but this
is not enough to provide a permanent fix to its
economic issues. Yemen has the potential to use
its limited resources for multi-lateral trade
deals. Under-developed nations such as Angola have
made bilateral development agreements with
economic powers such as China and the United
States.
In exchange for energy resources,
Chinese or American companies will build roads,
hospitals, and generally improve infrastructure
under bilateral development agreements. If the
security situation stabilizes, this could
potentially increase Yemen's investment capital
and give it a breath of fresh air to focus on
economic issues that have benefits for the
country.
If Yemen does not expand its
approach to economic development through
diversification and socio-economic reform, then
the post-Saleh era will perpetuate the same
problems during his reign. Yemen can look over the
border to Oman for inspiration. In the 1970's Oman
was an impoverished, corrupt, and volatile country
filled with violence and socio-economic problems
similar to Yemen's.
Oman has learned how
to use its resources to broker multi-lateral trade
deals and is currently focusing on developing
advanced infrastructure and educational systems.
The result is a fairly modernized country that has
adopted serious reforms and put its disruptive
past behind it. Yemen's problems go deeper than
drone strikes but for inspiration for change it
need not look far.
George
Kosmidis is an International Security Analyst
based in Washington DC
Speaking
Freely is an Asia Times Online feature that allows
guest writers to have their say.Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing. Articles submitted for this section
allow our readers to express their opinions and do
not necessarily meet the same editorial standards
of Asia Times Online's regular contributors.
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