Silver lining in Iran nuclear
talks By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Despite the deadlock at last week's talks
in Moscow between Iran and world powers on the
former's nuclear ambitions, it seems not all hope
is lost.
The glimmer of progress lies in
the support building for a technical agreement on
a nuclear fuel swap, which is the subject of a
technical follow-on meeting for July 3 in
Istanbul, as well as in improved
confidence-building measures between the US and
Iran.
Talk of a "diplomatic window
closing" on Iran is also a thing of the past. This
was reflected in a joint statement by US President
Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin
after a meeting on June 20 in Mexico, which
emphasized the importance
of a "phased" approach to
resolving the Iran nuclear standoff.
However, the Iranian press has been
critical of the stingy response from Western
governments to Iran's nuclear offers at the talks.
A report by the International Crisis Group has
also criticized the West's counter-offers to Iran
as "ungenerous."
Irrespective of the
shortcomings of their diplomatic approach, the US
and its Western allies are inching towards a
better understanding of the Iranian perspective
and the country's outlook on nuclear and regional
issues. Over time, its likely this could
contribute towards a deal that would represent a
qualitative breakthrough, and signal the West's
preparedness to avoid further conflict with the
Islamic Republic of Iran. This despite a flare-up
of contrary rhetoric from the French socialist
government, which last week warned of stiffer
sanctions against Iran.
Few Western
experts doubt that the West is now considerably
more assured about Iran's nuclear intentions than
a year ago, in light of Iran's serious offers of
compromise on key nuclear issues, transparency,
access to the International Atomic Energy Agency
and suspension of 20% enriched uranium, all of
which were again floated at the Moscow meeting.
Iran's soft power diplomacy has also been
moved forward by Tehran as its hammers home the
point that it was the other side's rigid approach
that blocked a deal in Moscow. In essence, the
West is now on the defensive and faces a tough
time justifying its present course of action
against Iran, particularly in a divided Europe
that has much to lose from rising oil prices in
the event of escalated tensions over Iran's
nuclear program.
Europe's economic
vulnerability limits its leverage on the Iran
issue, and France's threat of toughened sanctions
is not shared by most EU governments, some of whom
have already received waivers from the Obama
administration's sanctions on Iran.
With
respect to Tehran-Washington dialogue, there is
now a fairly solid understanding between the two
sides that no major deal will be struck until
after the US presidential elections in November.
Until then, the best and most feasible and
mutually-agreed course of action is to keep the
lines of negotiation open, no matter how skeletal,
since this will have a disproportionate impact in
staving off a military strike on Iran and giving a
new lease of life to diplomacy.
An Obama
who can approach the issue without concerns over
his re-election will be more amenable to striking
a deal, which is why Tehran has opted for a
patient approach that takes into account Obama's
election chances and his future ability to launch
a meaningful engagement.
The West's "great
refusal" on Iran's nuclear offers is not likely to
sustain itself much longer. As that line falters,
a new sentiment is rising among the "Iran six"
group that envisions incremental resolution of the
crisis.
Kaveh L Afrasiabi, PhD, is the
author of After Khomeini: New Directions in
Iran's Foreign Policy (Westview Press) . For
his Wikipedia entry, click
here. He is author of Reading In Iran
Foreign Policy After September 11 (BookSurge
Publishing , October 23, 2008) and Looking for
Rights at Harvard. His latest book is UN
Management Reform: Selected Articles and
Interviews on United Nations CreateSpace
(November 12, 2011).
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