THE ROVING
EYE O
brother, where art thou? Pepe
Escobar
The whole Arab world, and the
whole world for that matter, was eager to know
what the newly elected president of Egypt, Muslim
Brotherhood (MB) cadre Mohammed Morsi, had to say
about foreign policy in his victory speech.
Talk about an anti-climax. He briefly
mentioned Egypt would respect its "international
agreements" - code for the 1979 Camp David accord
with Israel. Tel Aviv and Washington might have
been assured. As for the Arab street, certainly
not.
Laconic Morsi may have dodged the big
question. But in this volatile environment de
facto controlled by the Orwellian SCAF (Supreme
Council of the Armed Forces) - the Egyptian
military dictatorship apparatus - it seems the MB
wouldn't think twice
about throwing the
Palestinians under a slow-moving bus if that meant
clinging to power.
Still, this was not
enough to appease the right-wingosphere in the US
- with the usual rabid dogs pontificating about
how President Barack Obama had "lost" Egypt and
how the country would instantly be buried by an
al-Qaeda sandstorm.
It was up once again
to Angry Arab blogger As'ad AbuKhalil to provide
some much-needed perspective. As'ad stressed,
"elections in the Arab world are now reduced to a
contest between Saudi money and Qatari money". And
the winner in Egypt was Qatar's House of Thani.
It's always important to remember that the
House of Saud and the MB are extremely competitive
on what is the meaning of pure Islam. Qatar's
official foreign policy is to support the MB
wherever possible. From the point of view of Doha,
this is immense; an Islamist is now president of
the key Arab nation. Every committed Islamist from
the Maghreb to Benghazi, and from Tehran to
Kandahar, may also have reasons to rejoice.
In parallel, the official candidate of the
US, the European Union, Israel, the House of Saud
and Egypt's Ancien Regime - former Air Force
general Ahmad Shafik - had lost. So, in theory,
Egypt's counter-revolution had lost. Not really.
Not yet.
Only the terminally naive believe
the Orwellian SCAF de facto rules Egypt without
consulting Washington and the House of Saud on its
every move. Before Morsi was anointed as the
winner, there had to be a backroom deal - as was
reported by Ahram online. [1]
What the
SCAF-MB deal boils down to is that Morsi was
forced to agree to work "within the parameters set
out by SCAF". This means the military dictatorship
apparatus will essentially prevail over Morsi and
over the legislative. Only after this agreement
was sealed Morsi was "legitimately announced as
the elected president".
Damn, we bet on
the wrong horse The White House duly
congratulated Morsi - as well as SCAF, apparently
taking no sides. But Washington was very keen to
stress that the Egyptian government should
"continue to fulfill Egypt's role as a pillar of
regional peace, security and stability"; that's
code for "don't even think about renegotiating
Camp David". The White House also pledged to
"stand with the Egyptian people". With friends
like these, the "Egyptian people" - half of them
practically starving - may be assured of a bright
future.
Obama solomonically called Morsi
and Shafiq, the MB and SCAF. Only the terminally
naive would believe the US government harbored
fears that Shafiq - its preferred candidate -
would in the end be declared president. By the
way, Shafiq had to flee Egypt in infamy on Tuesday
- after Egypt's prosecutor general opened an
investigation into his dodgy deals during the
eight years he spent as civil aviation minister
under Mubarak.
So arguably, from now on,
Egypt may have two sets of foreign policy; the
MB's and SCAF's. The balance of forces will depend
on whether the MB can restore the dissolved
parliament; or can draw as many votes in a second
round of parliamentary elections as in the
(annulled) first. There's also the fact nobody
knows what kind of power an Egyptian president
will wield; the new constitution has not even been
written.
From Washington's point of view,
whatever happens must not rock the regal dhow;
blind support for whatever Israel does; barely
disguised support for whatever the House of Saud
and the GCC do (including harsh
suppression/repression of Arab Spring installments
in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman); and if anyone
defies us, we'll bomb you or drone you to death.
From Washington's point of view, the MB
under Morsi may be construed as easily
containable. He won't dare confronting Israel.
Morsi most likely will pull an Erdogan - as in
Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Muscular protests against the brutal Gaza gulag as
imposed by Tel Aviv; strong support for Hamas; but
keeping diplomatic and trade relations in place.
Eventually that might result in the Israeli
leadership finally accepting that Palestinians are
human beings. But no one should bet on it.
It remains to be seen, in this "two sets
of foreign policy" scenario, whose side will
prevail in the long run, MB or SCAF. Iran is the
absolute test case. Morsi, if he has any leeway,
will not blindly follow Washington on its
obsession of crippling Iran - as Iraq was crippled
during the 1990s; the long prelude before regime
change. A hint of things to come is that Morsi
told the Fars News Agency he wanted Cairo-Tehran
relations to be back to normal. Then there was an
almost immediate Egyptian denial, which could only
have been orchestrated by SCAF.
Professor
at the European University Institute in Florence
Olivier Roy correctly warns about Egypt, "this was
a revolution without revolutionaries. Yet the
Muslim Brothers are the only organized political
force… Their conservative agenda fits a
conservative society, which may welcome democracy
but did not turn liberal." For Roy, "there will be
no institutionalization of democracy without the
Muslim Brothers".
Talk about a long rocky
road. Morsi will have to answer not only to SCAF
but also to the extremely conservative MB
leadership; after all until yesterday he was no
more than a nondescript cadre. He knows that
confronting SCAF means confronting Washington. If
he tries anything more daring, they will just need
to act like they're killing him softly; but what
if he's able to mobilize millions in the streets?
All bets are off on what this Brother is really
at.
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