Page 1 of
2 SPEAKING
FREELY The
real Syrian problem By Richard
Javad Heydarian
Speaking Freely is
an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please
click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
Undoubtedly, Syria
is at the epicenter of one of the bloodiest and
most unfortunate conflicts in recent times. It
increasingly resembles a protracted humanitarian
crisis that is endangering the very integrity of
the Syrian nation-state.
There is no way
to understate the tragic dimensions of the crisis:
more than 20,000 civilians in casualties, 1
million internally displaced people, two million
in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, and
almost 140,000 fleeing to neighboring countries
such as Lebanon, Jordan,
Iraq, and most especially Turkey. Unfortunately,
as the armed uprising gains momentum, and the
regime desperately clings on to power, the
humanitarian costs are bound to increase - with no
clear end in sight.
There is also an
international dimension to the crisis. A coalition
of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and
Arab monarchies are supporting the
armed-opposition, while Eastern powers such as
Iran, Russia, and China have stood by the
"regime".
However, the most worrying
aspect of the Syrian crisis - especially in the
long-run - hovers around two intertwined issues:
(1) the fate of Syria's considerable stockpile of
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and a whole
host of advanced weaponry that could be used by
sinister elements in the most pernicious manner;
and (2) the continuous infiltration of extremist
elements into the Syrian theatre, which is not
only undermining the democratic-secular nature of
the uprising, and increasing the prospects of even
bloodier sectarian mass atrocities, but also
represents a serious challenge to regional and
broader international security.
The
highly fluid situation Syria is practically
a warzone. Much of the countryside is a "no man's
land", filled with the heavy presence of Free
Syrian Army (FSA) units that have routinely
sabotaged the regime's heavily-armed forces
through a combination of asymmetrical and (even in
certain instances) conventional warfare.
Unable to exert decisive control on key
cities such as Homs and Idlib, the regime has
resorted to bombing and artillery shelling to
neutralize opposition strongholds - placing heavy
casualties on residents and the cities'
infrastructure. It justifies such actions by
accusing the opposition (or what it calls
"extremist elements and terrorists") of using
residents as human shields.
Enjoying
significant support in the country's two most
important cities, Aleppo and Damascus, the regime
has sanctimoniously continued its "all out"
assaults as a form of retaliation for the
opposition's increasingly deadly attacks against
public offices and crowded centers in the two
cities.
Yet, in recent days, things have
got even more precarious with the FSA infiltrating
the country's commercial center, Aleppo. In fact,
at some point, the opposition claimed to have
established its presence in the key district of
Salaheddin, controlling up to a third of the city.
The armed opposition has also moved on to secure
strategic transportation networks such as the
Latakia- Aleppo highway to deny much-needed
mobility to an increasingly besieged regime.
The regime has already withdrawn from the
Kurdish-dominated northeastern regions, bordering
Turkey and Iraq. Much of the northern areas
bordering Turkey are beyond the state's control,
while the south and center have been in throes of
revolution for more than a year. So practically
it's only in Damascus that the regime exerts
decisive and full control.
Even that has
been put into doubt by the fact that the FSA (and
other elements) has been able to operate in Midan,
Shaghur, and Tabbalah districts, while the town of
al-Tal has been transformed into a "disaster area"
after heavy clashes between opposing forces,
according to the umbrella opposition group, the
Syrian National Council (SNC).
Only few
months ago, prior the collapse of Kofi Annan's
Six-Point Plan, the regime seemed pretty much in
control of the situation, with the opposition
struggling to coalesce around a unified
armed-and-political strategy. So what explains the
sudden upsurge in the opposition's momentum?
Extremists to the rescue? The
regime has been suffering from critical tactical
and symbolic reversals in recent months - thanks
to the growing lethality of extremist forces that
have come to the aid of the FSA.
Last
month, the German foreign intelligence service,
the BND, announced that the Al-Qaeda and
like-minded elements have been responsible for
"95" attacks, including the deadly flurry of
bombings that have rocked Aleppo and Damascus
since late-2011. The US State Department has also
admitted to the presence of such elements.
In an interview with the Associated Pres
(AP), the State Department's counter-terrorism
coordinator, Daniel Benjamin, stated, "There is a
larger group of foreign fighters ... who are
either in or headed to Syria," and their numbers
are set to "grow" as the violent clashes continue.
These elements may have been responsible
for an event, which has arguably changed the
balance of forces in favor of the armed
opposition: the successful assassination of
Syria"s top security officials, including defense
minister Dawoud Rajha, his deputy, Assef Shawkat
(Assad's brother-in-law), and the country's
Assistant Vice-President and Presidential Security
Adviser Hasan Turkmani.
Flushed with cash
and weapons from sympathetic, hardliner donors
from across the Persian Gulf monarchies, they have
brought with themselves tremendous combat
experience and logistical know-how to the Syrian
theatre.
Veterans of the Afghan wars have
teamed up with their counterparts from other
conflict-ridden nations such as Iraq, Yemen,
Pakistan, and Libya, transforming Syria into a new
front for global Islamic Jihad - ironically,
against the only Arab country that has stood up to
the West.
Not only have these elements
developed increasingly sophisticated
command-and-control structures to coordinate their
joint operations, but they have also attracted the
loyalty of many members of the (more moderate and
SNC-affiliated) FSA, who have been impressed by
the former's combat efficacy and ruthless
efficiency.
As adroitly put by Murhaf
Jouejati, a member of the SNC, the extremists
"come with weapons and money." They have not only
been responsible for most IED attacks, but also
the source of anti-tank weapons, 12.5 mm and 14.5
mm anti-aircraft guns, rocket propelled grenades
(RPG), mortars, and stockpiles of heavy armaments
as souvenirs of the Libyan revolution and the 2003
the Iraq war. Just like the anti-Soviet Afghan war
of the 1980s, these groups are beginning to
outmaneuver their heavily armed opponent, which
they see as "infidel" and "tyrannical".
A
combination of deepening humanitarian tragedy and
growing military reversals on the ground, amidst
intensifying international support, has also
struck into the hearts of some of the regime's
important figures. The regime is experiencing a
flurry of "high-profile" defections, ranging from
top diplomats in Baghdad and London to Brigadar
Manaf Tlas as well as the Aleppo parliamentarian
Ikhlas Badawi.
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
