COMMENT Egypt and Iran, new twin
pillars By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Egypt and Iran this week took a giant step
toward overcoming their diplomatic estrangement,
brought together by the exigencies of a global
movement and, even more so, a complex regional
calculus that has a long history of being shaped
by foreign powers.
In a sign of changing
times, the Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi used
the opportunity of his participation in the
Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Tehran to put
on full display of the delicate yet significant
nuances of a "new Egypt" that has unshackled
itself from foreign domination and moves according
to its own incandescent atmosphere.
At the
landmark summit's opening day, the speeches by
Morsi and his Iranian hosts such as by Supreme
Leader Ayatollah
Khamenei and Iran's
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, reflected a
symbiosis that explains why the NAM torch was
passed from Morsi's hands to Ahmadinejad, in light
of the common themes of decrying unjust global
structures, support for Palestinians, a Middle
East nuclear weapons-free zone, etc.
Simultaneously, this was punctuated, yet
by no means punctured, by visible disagreements
over Syria, as Morsi used the occasion to declare
his solidarity with the "Syrian people" against
the "oppressive" regime, thus warranting a walk
out by the Syrian foreign minister, who likely
hoped to see a greater emphasis by Morsi on
mediation .
But, not all hope is lost and
in the same speech Morsi referred to that plan,
which he unveiled at a recent meeting of
Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Mecca, even
though so far only Tehran has officially endorsed
it; regarding Turkey, a last minute decision to
send a special envoy may have saved Turkey from a
major self-inflicted wound (see Turkey
peculiarly absent at summit, Asia Times
Online, August 28, 2012).
Judging by their
warm brotherly hugs at the summit and their
bilateral talks on the summit's side-line, Morsi
and Ahmadinejad clearly have a good chemistry
between them and it would only make sense to see
Ahmadinejad in Cairo before his presidency's
termination next June.
Although some top
Cairo officials have denied that a full
restoration of diplomatic relations with Tehran is
imminent, after this summit they will be hard
pressed to justify their opposition - after all,
Iran and Saudi Arabia have their own fair share of
issues and yet have managed to keep the diplomatic
ship afloat, so why not Egypt?
By all
indications, we are now witnessing a subtle "turn
to the east" by Egypt that is reflected in Morsi's
China trip prior to his Iran visit, despite an
invitation by the White House. Rebuffing
Washington's and Tel Aviv's pressure not to attend
the summit, Morsi like UN secretary general Ban
Ki-moon showed independent judgment, just as both
men used the summit's podium to raise issues that
irritate Iran, such as the nuclear issue, Israel,
human rights and Morsi's support for the
opposition in Syria.
Yet, the next move on
Syria will not be a no-fly zone but rather a
concerted regional effort at conflict-mediation,
in order to complement the current effort of UN
special envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi. Only by
joining hands can Tehran and Cairo make a tangible
difference in brining the warring parties to a
meaningful dialogue, together with input by other
important regional and extra-regional players,
such as Saudi Arabia, which sent a prince to the
summit as a sign of good will toward Iran, basking
in the reward of proving its international
solidarity to the coercive Western powers.
Beyond regional issues, however, a good
many international matters pertaining to UN
reform, global economic injustice and hierarchy,
and South-South cooperation, also bind Egypt and
Iran today, sufficient reason to anticipate their
full cooperation in the international
organizations in the coming years. Morsi clearly
shares Iran's view of Israel's nuclear arsenal as
a threat to itself and the rest of the Arab world
and, henceforth, we should witness a common effort
with Iran to bring international pressures on
Israel to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty and to
open its nuclear sites to inspections.
Assuming that Cairo under Morsi manages to
continue charting a new foreign policy orientation
that dictates cooperation with a like-minded
Tehran, we may legitimately speak of a "new twin
pillars" of stability in the Middle East, akin to
the Iran and Saudi "twin pillars" prior to the
Islamic Revolution.
Indeed, by pulling
their resources together, as the two biggest
Middle Eastern states can achieve much in the
direction of "reshaping the political landscape"
to paraphrase a recent commentary by the China
News Agency.
Lest we forget, this is a
rough landscape with minefields of competing
loyalties and overlapping (religious, ideological,
material) interests that do not always fit each
other or allow consistent policies, but rather
zigzags and tactical maneuvers in place of settled
long-term strategies.
Consequently, it is
hardly surprising that Cairo and Tehran may
discover certain side-effects pushing them away
from each other precisely at a time when they are
pulled together, simply because of their constant
balancing act and the Egyptian coordination of
their Iran policy with their Washington or Saudi
policies, requiring a "near distancing," For now,
however, as a result of the landmark summit that
has "blown" a new life to NAM, to paraphrase
ayatollah Khamenei, the breath of fresh Iran-Egypt
diplomacy is inescapable, much as it should not be
mistaken for a complete harmony.
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