New
offensive escalates Syrian civil
war Victor Kotsev
A
fresh rebel offensive in the northern Syrian
commercial hub of Aleppo has produced few tangible
results except perhaps the burning of the medieval
Aleppo souk (market), the largest of its
type in the world and a UNESCO heritage site.
However, the forces opposing the government of
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - and their
foreign backers - are clearly on a desperate
offensive, signaled by the Emir of Qatar's "Arab
intervention" speech at the United Nations last
week. The latest developments include record
numbers of refugees from the conflict and violence
between the opposition and Kurdish forces which
threatens to ignite the sectarian civil war even
further.
Though the Egyptian "quartet"
initiative - which included Iran as a key member -
was duly scuttled by Turkey and Saudi Arabia (the
two other members), none of these countries have
reduced their
involvement in the Syrian
civil war. On Sunday, Egyptian President Mohammed
Morsi and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan renewed their pledges of support for the
Syrian people and called on Russia, China and Iran
to stop backing Assad's regime.
Turkey had
vacillated recently, concerned about the rise of a
Kurdish entity on its southern border. The Syrian
rebels, however, more recently sought to win its
favors back, by threatening and even attacking the
Kurds. This episode appears to be considerably
more significant and ominous than the confused
offensive in Aleppo which started on Friday but
was largely halted by the heavy fire of government
forces and lack of unity in the rebel ranks. [1]
"Whoever carries arms in the face of the
opposition battalions will find themselves under
fire," a rebel leader in Aleppo cited by Reuters
warned local Kurdish militants. Soon afterward,
reports of violence against Kurds surfaced,
including a bombing in the city of Qamishli on
Sunday that killed eight.
These can be
seen as desperate moves by the rebels. On the one
hand, they are in a bind: Turkey is their key
ally, but the Syrian army's pullout from these
areas, in a sense, turned the Turkish idea of
buffer zones near the border on its head. On the
other hand, however, fighting between the Sunni Arab rebels
and the Kurds is the last thing that the
conflict-torn country needs, as it would only
complicate the sectarian civil war further. It
serves purely partisan goals of dubious and
fleeting value: the support of a regional power
which has turned its course with respect to Syria
180 degrees twice in the past decade.
Moreover, the violence may cement the gaps
between opposition groups and weaken the rebels
militarily at a time when the Assad regime is
still strong. It remains to be seen if Turkey's
rhetoric would be matched by any significant
practical moves. It is worth noting that the
Syrian opposition was bundled together with the
Palestinians in Morsi's and Erdogan's joint
remarks in Ankara, hardly a signal that urgent
action is forthcoming.
A Saudi media
offensive to prod the Turks further, on the other
hand, appears to be in full swing, spearheaded by
the mouthpiece of the Saudi regime, al-Arabiya.
One report would have us believe that the Syrians
captured alive the two Turkish pilots whose F-4
reconnaissance jet was shot down by Syria in June,
only to kill them on Russian instructions and then
return their bodies inside the crashed jet. [2]
A slightly more credible report, claims
that the Assad regime carried out a large car
bombing in Damascus in May. [3] The attack claimed
at least 55 lives and was used for propaganda
purposes by the regime, to illustrate its claim
that it is fighting "terrorists."
New
allegations based on the same cache of alleged
leaked Syrian documents, such as a claim that
Assad's people perpetrated an attack on Qatari
soil, continue to be published by the media
practically on a daily basis. [4] It looks as if
the Saudis are doing their utmost to drum up
support for the Arab intervention advocated by
Qatar.
As argued previously on these
pages, Egypt is perhaps the best-suited Arab
country to lead any such force, both because of
its large and relatively modern military and its
role in the Arab world (not to mention its
long-standing ties with Syria, with which it
briefly entered a political union several decades
ago). However, while the Egyptians are clearly
signaling their desire to get involved further,
they have yet to get more specific in public about
their intentions and expectations. Given their
faltering economy, we can expect that everything
will come at a price.
Despite its
isolation, much depends on the "odd man out" in
the Egyptian quartet, Iran. According to the
British newspaper The Times, the Islamic Republic
has recently invested close to US$10 billion in
the Syrian regime. Estimates such as figures
quoted by the Jordanian king Abdullah II suggest
that Assad is short of about $1 billion a month in
keeping up his military campaign. It is dubious
whether the Syrian president's opponents can
afford to wait until his and Iran's cash reserves
run dry.
As the fighting intensifies, the
death toll is climbing rapidly. Estimates claim
that around 30,000 people have been killed so far,
many of them in the last couple of months; the
daily casualties are in the double or even triple
digits. Neighboring countries such as Turkey and
Lebanon have experienced significant spillover of
violence, and have been flooded with record
numbers of refugees. Around 300,000 have crossed
Syria's borders so far, most of these in
August and September. With another 2,000-3,000
leaving each 24 hours, the United Nations refugee
agency has estimated that as many as 700,000 may
leave by the end of the year. This would amount to
the most significant refugee crisis in the world
in recent years.
Besides, other
communities beyond the Kurds and the Alawites
(Assad belongs to the Alawite religious minority)
are coming under increasing pressure to pick sides
in the escalating civil war. The Druze (another
minority offshoot of Islam) are reportedly some of
the latest to feel the heat in places such as
Damascus and Idlib province, while the Christians
are waiting nervously at the sidelines.
It
is also important to keep track of allegations
that the Syrian regime is moving or preparing to
deploy chemical weapons, which would constitute a
self-declared red line for the United States and
other countries. Last week, US Secretary of
Defense Leon Panetta sought to play down recent
reports of such movements, claiming that the
stockpiles were being kept secure by the Syrian
regime, but this assessment may change on a
relatively short notice, particularly if the US
decides to join the Arab intervention initiative.
Intervention would be costly, perhaps several times as costly as the military operation in Libya last year. According to a recent estimate cited in Foreign Policy Magazine, "$12 billion would be needed for immediate support in the first six months after the fall of the regime." War expenses and reconstruction would be additional.
Dollar-flush Saudi Arabia has reportedly hinted that it may be interested in bankrolling the operation, but the challenges persist beyond the financial sphere. As Nathaniel Rosenblatt, the Foreign Policy Magazine author, put it, "Overall, Syria's future challenge will be equal parts Libyan demilitarization, Iraqi de-Baathification, and Lebanese desectarianism."
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