Gaza
escalation threatens regional
violence By Victor Kotsev
The ongoing fire between Israel and Gaza,
after a mysterious robotic intrusion into Israeli
airspace attributed to the Lebanese militant group
Hezbollah, conjures up a danger that had not
received much attention - a regional conflict
between Israel and Gaza groups and/or Hezbollah.
The current round of tension blew up on
Monday morning with a barrage of some 55 rockets
and mortars into southern Israel, which resulted
in heavy material damage though with no human
casualties reported so far. The previous evening
an Israeli air strike wounded critically two
alleged Global Jihad operatives in the strip (one
of whom subsequently died), and lightly or
moderately a number of other Palestinians,
including five children.
In a particularly
ominous sign and in contrast to other recent
escalations, Hamas, the
dominant militant organization in Gaza, took the
lead in the fighting. Some analysts argue that its
fire was a symbolic retaliation for Sunday's air
strike, and that it had to "save face" in front of
other groups. In light of this, there is hope that
a lull in the violence on Monday evening will
last, but there are also significant dangers,
especially given other recent developments.
On Saturday, the Israeli air force
intercepted a small pilotless helicopter that
infiltrated Israeli air space near Gaza and flew
over southern Israel for some 30 minutes before
being shot down. Unconfirmed reports suggest that
Hamas was conducting a military exercise at
roughly the same time - which may have contributed
to the rise of tensions - but Israeli leaders
pointed a finger for the incursion at Hezbollah or
even Iran itself.
If the drone started in
the north, in order to enter Israel over Gaza in
the south, it would have had to take a
considerable detour over the Mediterranean Sea.
According to the Israelis, it was manufactured in
Iran and was most likely aimed to test Israel's
air defenses. One of the hottest questions in the
Israeli press is whether it was headed for the
Dimona nuclear reactor.
Experts note that
its operation was a highly sophisticated endeavor.
"Operating a drone by remote control from
such a long distance requires advanced
capabilities, which Israel was not aware Hezbollah
had acquired," wrote Israeli military analyst Ron
Ben-Yishai. "Hezbollah's drones have infiltrated
Israeli airspace in the past, from the north, but
their activation did not require any navigation
system. The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that
infiltrated Israel on Saturday did require such a
system."
The Israeli intelligence-analysis
web site Debka File, known for wild rumors as well
as legitimate leaks, claims that "Israeli
intelligence and air force waged a cyber battle
Saturday, October 6 with unidentified parties,
most likely Hezbollah or Iran ... for 30 minutes,
as the helicopter flew over southern Israel,
control swung back and forth between Israeli cyber
operators and unknown agents." The report could
not be verified.
In response to the
incident, Israel activated an additional Patriot
air defense battery near the city of Haifa in the
north, and Israeli fighter planes breached
Lebanese air space, conducting mock air raids in
the south.
The Israeli military also
responded vigorously to the Hamas missile fire on
Monday, using air strikes, artillery and tank
fire. While it took considerable care to protect
civilian lives - despite five reported injuries -
it sent a powerful message by not refraining from
bombing a mosque. We could interpret this as an
ultimatum of sorts: Israeli officials have
recently threatened a "massive response" to an
overwhelming missile barrage.
These
incidents underscore that the threat of a war in
the Middle East has not receded despite a flurry
of recent reports that claim Israel will refrain
from striking Iran's nuclear program this year.
The sporadic outbreaks of civil unrest in the
Islamic Republic in the past week, which are
believed to have contributed to Israel's changing
its mind, may serve as a trigger for such a more
limited conflict.
Given recent friction
between Hamas and its former Iranian patrons - the
movement has increasingly sided against Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad, who is a key ally of
Iran and Hezbollah, in the Syrian civil war - Iran
may have an interest to lure the Gaza militants
into a confrontation with Israel. In this way, it
would punish the infidelity and would
simultaneously raise the heat on Israel,
deflecting attention from its own many troubles.
As Ben-Yishai noted, "[Hezbollah] wanted
the drone to enter Israel near Gaza, perhaps in an
attempt to place the blame on Hamas, which is
currently considered hostile to elements that are
loyal to Iran."
Given that no significant
violence was reported on Monday night, it is
possible that such a scenario will be thwarted,
but much depends on whether any further incidents
produce significant casualties Israel's own
motivation must be examined. While most analysts
agree that the Jewish state can ill afford to draw
further negative attention in light of regional
upheaval caused by the Arab Spring, there are also
certain strategic arguments in favor of a short
but intense operation.
For example, a
campaign to degrade the military capabilities of
Hamas and Hezbollah would constitute a limited
pre-emptive strike against Iran's sphere of
influence. By picking out the Iranian military
assets one by one, particularly given a solid
legal justification for doing so (such as
self-defense), Israel would offer Iran and Syria a
grim choice: stay on the sidelines or be blamed
for a war that could easily draw in the United
States. Syria, which has plenty of domestic
troubles right now, would probably be glad to take
the former path.
Such an escalation on the
part of the Israelis, if it happens, would raise
the heat on US President Barack Obama but most
probably would not bring up official accusations
of interfering in the US elections. The ensuing
conflict would likely be brief but violent; or it
could spin out of control and engulf the entire
Middle East.
Victor Kotsev is a
journalist and political analyst.
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