COMMENT Lebanon's red lines,
bared By Sharmine Narwani
What a difference a week can make in the
Middle East.
On October 19, when a car
bomb tore through the upscale Christian
neighborhood of Achrafiyeh in Beirut killing a
major security official, Lebanon shuddered in fear
that the era of political assassinations was back.
Politicians and commentators didn't miss a
beat. The murder of Internal Security Forces (ISF)
Information Branch head Wissam al-Hassan was
compared to the killing of his former boss,
ex-prime minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. And the
Hariri-allied pro-West, anti-Syria, pro-Saudi
"March 14" political coalition lined up to deliver
a visceral blow to their opponents, just as they
had in 2005 when they ejected Syrian troops from
Lebanon.
Hassan's body was not yet cold
before his political allies started
pointing their fingers
at Syria and whipping up fury in the anti-Syrian
Sunni enclaves of Lebanon. Young men spilled onto
the streets with weapons brandished; some with
RPGs and even combat uniforms. Clashes ensued,
people died, but still their March 14 leaders did
not call for calm.
In a replay of 2005
when hundreds of thousands of Lebanese rose up in
the State Department-dubbed "Cedar Revolution" to
oust the Syrians, March 14 groups on Sunday called
for the masses to rally against Syria and its
Lebanese government allies.
Except that
not a single Syrian was ever charged by the
international UN-backed tribunal that investigated
Hariri's death. And last week there was no
evidence that Syria was implicated in Hassan's
assassination either.
But that didn't stop
the political theater at Hassan's funeral service
last Sunday when just a few thousand showed up to
participate in what some hoped would be a replay
of 2005.
There was no comparison
whatsoever.
Instead of the sea of Lebanese
flags, unifying slogans like "Freedom,
Sovereignty, Independence" and the dazzling
marketing and color-revolution choreography of,
respectively, Saatchi & Saatchi and Serbia's
Otpor that marked the 2005 event … the scene at
Martyr's Square in downtown Beirut on Sunday
resembled a wake for the March 14 coalition.
There was barely a Lebanese flag to be
seen. Instead, the throngs held up flags of the
Future Movement headed by Hariri's son Saad,
right-wing Lebanese Forces Christian militia
flags, Saudi flags, the colonial flag of the
Syrian opposition and Islamist flags in black.
Radical Muslims rallied alongside radical
Christians, their one commonality, revulsion for
the Syrian government and its allies Iran and
Hezbollah.
The visible awkwardness of
these March 14 alliances was impossible to ignore
on Lebanese TV that day. Who failed to note the
incongruity of a right-wing Christian Samir Geagea
supporter standing next to a Sunni youth sporting
an al-Qaeda headband? How can there be a future
for a Future Movement so fundamentally at odds
within itself, one wondered.
The crowds
had little in common, their disparate leaders were
smug, the mood was nationally divisive - little
wonder then that the event ended with sticks and
stones and tear gas. Not to mention a pitiful
attempt to storm the Grand Serail and eject the
Lebanese government headed by Hezbollah ally and
billionaire Sunni, Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
Those few hours on Sunday produced the
first post-bombing revelation: March 14 has
nothing to offer Lebanon - they are morally
bankrupt, out of ideas, yesterday's leaders
clawing for relevance as the region changes
rapidly around them. Their supporters too are just
treading water - this grouping exists only in
opposition to something; it stands for nothing.
While the bombing had March 14 licking
their opportunistic lips, it was their own Western
allies France, the UK and US (FUKUS) that crushed
their political hopes. Without any apparent
tactical coordination, FUKUS overrode March 14
publicly, and declared that PM Mikati and his
government must stay.
What is surprising
is March 14's utter cluelessness about the way
those winds were blowing. Not just FUKUS, but all
five UN Security Council permanent members and
Ban-Ki Moon's personal representative in Lebanon
weighed in on the side of Mikati's government.
Not only was the UNSC speaking with one
voice, but the speed and decisiveness of their
message also undermined a key March 14-FUKUS
refrain. In effect, the global powers were
recognizing that the Iran and Hezbollah-backed
Lebanese government was integral to guaranteeing
the country's stability at a vulnerable time. No
longer could this duo claim that these regional
players were acting to destabilize Lebanon.
And so another red line is bared. The
three main Western backers of the Syrian and
Lebanese opposition have shown their limits: It is
perfectly okay to sow sectarian strife in Lebanon,
Syria and elsewhere, but not if it means
destabilization on several of Israel's borders.
One conflict-struck country is manageable in the
Levant, but more than that and things can spread
like wildfire. Controlled chaos is fine, but
certainly not concurrent with a power vacuum. A
powerless Lebanese state will mean loss of control
over the critical southern territories along the
Israeli border and along the eastern border with
Syria - both are hard limits for FUKUS.
The FUKUS states have of course realized
that at this critical juncture in Syria, they need
levers in neighboring Lebanon. They care not a
whit about their allies being in power - a
compliant government is far less valuable than one
with "access." The governing March 8 coalition is
led by a weak and malleable Mikati, but
importantly, he is a route to Iran, Syria and
Hezbollah - which counts when regional stakes are
this high.
No matter that Hezbollah has
just flown a drone over FUKUS-ally Israel in an
embarrassing breach of security for the Jewish
state. No matter that Israel has been demanding
military strikes against Iran just before a US
presidential election. No matter that March 14
have been staunch FUKUS allies in both a local and
regional geopolitical context against mutual foes
Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. The only thing
that counts now is that FUKUS isn't confident
about the outcome in Syria. Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad has outlasted all their
predictions and opposition forces supported by the
west are radicalizing in a direction that makes
their mentors uncomfortable. If Islamist militants
spin out of control in Syria, FUKUS will need to
tame that chaos fast, before it spills into allied
Jordan and Israel and further disrupts the Turkish
and Lebanese borders.
The red lines
hurriedly drawn in Lebanon last week have shown
regional antagonists some new and unexpected
cards. March 14's diffuse political identity
resonates little with the Lebanese, and its
interests are diverging from traditional external
allies. FUKUS and the UNSC views the Iran,
Hezbollah and Syria-backed Lebanese government as
a force for stability in the Levant. Western
leaders fear loss of control in the Syrian crisis
they helped fan. Iran and Hezbollah hold valuable
levers for the international community.
We
may never discover who killed Wissam al-Hassan,
but Lebanon last week was full of revelations
nonetheless.
Sharmine Narwani is
a commentary writer and political analyst covering
the Middle East, and a Senior Associate at St
Antony's College, Oxford University.
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