Election won't alter US course in
Syria By Sami Moubayed
Both US President Barack Obama and his
Republican challenger in the upcoming presidential
election, Mitt Romney, have repeatedly called on
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down.
Neither appears to have a clear policy for
achieving that goal nor have they explained what
the future of Syria should be.
The
situation is certainly complex. Syria is plagued
by massive and overlapping problems ranging from
sectarianism, Islamification and ethnic conflict
to its relationship with non-state actors like
Hezbollah and allies like Iran. Syrians want to
believe that the crisis in their country is a high
priority for the White House. It is important, no
doubt, but by no means is it urgent for the United
States. This is clear from the fact that the Syrian
nightmare has dragged on
for 20 months already.
The US candidates
seem to advocate different approaches. In their
final television debate, Romney said he wants to
ensure the Syrian opposition has the arms
necessary to defend themselves and remove Assad
from power. He argued that he does not think it
would be necessary to intervene directly in Syria,
claiming that America's allies can do the job if
given the right weapons. Meanwhile, Obama stressed
the need to be very sure who the United States is
helping before giving heavy weapons to the rebels.
He criticized Romney's stance on weapons, arguing
that they could be used "against us".
US
decision-makers fear unsolicited arms on the
streets of Syria making their way into the hands
of al-Qaeda or Palestinian militants. A consistent
argument has emerged in the US press in recent
months, focusing on the Islamist nature of some
elements of the Syrian insurgency. Many within
Syria argue that the September attack on the US
Consulate in Benghazi and murder of Ambassador
Christopher Stevens actually forced the Obama
administration to re-think its policies towards
Syria, as it raised fears over chaos in a power
transition and the rise of radical Islamist
elements in the Syrian underground.
The
Obama administration's latest effort on Syria was
putting together a new coalition, headed by former
parliamentarian Riad Seif, called the Syrian
National Initiative. The broad coalition, which
will include all members of the Syrian opposition
inside Syria and of the once-high-profile Syrian
National Council (SNC), is meeting in Qatar to
discuss the council's future among other issues.
Referred to as the Riad Seif plan, the
council initiative was developed with the help of
the US State Department. The council would be
ready to work with a new US administration as soon
as it comes into office in January. US Ambassador
to Syria Robert Ford, a good friend of Riad Seif,
is expected to attend the meeting in Doha.
Washington is clearly fed up with the
SNC's inability to unite the Syrian opposition or
establish a firm base in Syria itself. Among other
things, it has failed to attract Alawites into its
ranks and is plagued by political bickering and
high-profile walk-outs of senior members like
Haitham al-Maleh and Bassma Koudmani. In May and
July 2012, two SNC visits to Washington were
called off at the last minute.
The Obama
team views the new coalition as a potential
interim government that can serve as a proper
interlocutor for the international community and
eventually sit down for talks on the Syrian
transition with the regime itself. It highlights
the Obama administration's preference for a
political solution in Syria rather than simply
sending arms to the rebels.
Obama and his
allies have staged high-profile conferences and
showered the rebels with praise but, until now,
have fallen short of taking the pressure a step
higher. The international community led by the
United States has failed - three times - at
passing a UN resolution against Syria, thanks to a
double Russian-Chinese veto. In Syria itself, the
rebels are fed up with the Obama administration's
sweeping statements and lack of action. If the
Riad Seif Plan carries real substance; that of
course can change.
It had been hoped that
the Turkish parliamentary election in the summer
of 2011 would be a game-changer with the
conclusive victory handed to Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan expected to give him the impetus to
put his firm words into action. When that did not
happen, the focus turned to the French, waiting
for President Francois Hollande to replace Nicolas
Sarkozy. When nothing happened, hopes were pinned
on Russia, saying that Russia's position would
change once Vladimir Putin returned to power.
Now all eyes are set on the upcoming US
election on November 6. Regardless of whether the
incumbent Obama or Romney wins, both will have to
deal with the reality of the Riad Seif plan, which
the Obama administration will sign off before
sealing its final, or first, term in office.
Still, it seems unlikely that Syria will be at the
top of either man's agenda after November 6.
Sami Moubayed is a visiting
scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center in
Beirut and author of "Syria and the USA" (IB
Tauris, 2012). He is co-founder and
editor-in-chief of Syrianhistory.com
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online
(Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
