New
balance of terror in the Middle
East By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
NEW YORK - In the week-long war between
Israel and the Palestinians, slowly but surely
signs have emerged of a new "balance of terror"
reflecting Hamas's enhanced ability to strike back
at Israel via the Iran-made long range Fajr-5
rocket.
Compared with the previous war in
2009, when Hamas relied on the shorter range and
more inaccurate rockets that rattled southern
Israel before a ceasefire went into effect, this
time we are witnessing a "more disciplined" and
sophisticated Hamas missile brigade that
reportedly has some 15,000 military personnel
operating through a network of tunnels.
It
comes as little surprise then that Hamas has set
its own conditions for a truce despite the deadly
waves of Israeli air
bombardment that have
resulted in the death or injury of hundreds of
civilians in the densely populated Gaza, described
by professor Noam Chomsky on his recent Gaza visit
[1] as the world's largest open-prison. Its
inhabitants live in increasingly horrible and
uninhabitable conditions as the direct result of
Israeli collective punishment of the population
ruled by Hamas, which now wants the lifting of the
Israeli blockade of the area as a term of truce.
There is nothing irrational or outrageous
about this demand. It is backed by the
international community, which deplores the
suffering of civilians in the Gaza Strip. Israel
is inherently opposed to anything demanded by
Hamas and, therefore, it is more likely now that
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will send his
tanks into Gaza on a wild goose chase for Hamas's
rocket arsenal. In that case, the war will get
messier and the end result muddier, as it did in
the 15-day operation in 2009, which ended well
short of the stated objective of "destroying
Hamas's infrastructure".
If Hamas's
military prowess surprised the Israelis, then its
upgraded rocket capability is an even bigger
surprise and carries ramifications that do not
favor Israel in terms of the regional balance of
power. Despite having an "iron dome" shield to
intercept, according to reports, roughly 60% of
incoming rockets, Israel is today exhibiting an
unprecedented vulnerability that is a far cry from
the "invincible" Israel proclaimed by its
politicians.
Israel's goal appears to be a
division of Gaza thinly cloaked as a modest war
aim, perhaps to cut off Gaza's link to Egypt as
much as possible since it is clear where the
rockets come from. This is a big objective,
inviting a war of attrition.
The fact is
that Israel cannot, short of a full-scale and
costly invasion and re-occupation of Gaza, fully
master its sky from Hamas rockets that now
threaten a large portion of the Israeli territory.
This is not necessarily a negative development for
peace, since Israel's previous "total domination"
was an invitation for the status quo ante,
discouraging any serious Israeli move toward
comprehensive peace.
There is now a new
"balance of terror". It is still deeply
asymmetrical to Israel's advantage, yet, since it
features the Israeli geostrategic vulnerabilities
stated above, the new equation contains a
potential plus for a more meaningful bid for
peace. Israeli political leaders may be unprepared
for this grim new reality, yet their military
advisers can shed much light for them on the new
reality on the ground; ie, the game-changer is
Hamas's ability to strike deep inside Israel, an
ability that is sure to grow even more in the
coming years.
For now, however, there is a
definite lack of fit between the military and
political thinking in Israel, and unless the
politicians, grudgingly or not, come to terms with
it, they may rush their country to the bossom of
another war that would be a major drain on the
economy (by, for example, depleting the Israeli
tourism industry).
Now the big question:
what will Israel lose and or gain by acceding to
Hamas's demand for lifting the blockade? The
answer is determined partly by putting it in
specific timeframes. In the long run, a more
prosperous Gaza - less agitated by its rampant
poverty, malnutrition, and water and other
shortages - may be more amenable to maintaining
peace in order to secure its prized achievements,
than a poor and starving Gaza whose back is
against the wall.
Unfortunately, many
Israeli leaders are immune to an in-depth
understanding of interdependence and its political
ramifications, convincing themselves instead that
they achieve more security by simply relying on
brute force to bring their Palestinian opponents
to their knees. This "compellence strategy" is
fundamentally suspect however, and now in the
light of the new "balance of terror" more than
ever a product of the past.
Perhaps what
Israel needs more than anything else is a
post-Zionist enlightened leadership that is not
self-imprisoned in the arcane 19th century
expansionist ideology and is instead more in tune
with the requirements of survival in the
contemporary context of globalization and
regionalization. That would mean less arrogance
and delusion of military superiority, [2] and an
admission of vulnerability that can, in turn,
create the hitherto absent impetus for
understanding and sympathizing with the suffering
of the Palestinian "other", who is for now the
candidate for mere oppression.
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