New
Arab-Kurdish front could strengthen
Assad By Wladimir van
Wilgenburg
Clashes between Kurdish
militias and armed Syrian opposition groups in
Aleppo starting at the end of October in Ras
al-Ayn near the Turkish border have raised the
specter of a possible Arab-Kurdish civil war in
Syria. An Arab-Kurdish civil war would weaken the
efforts of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and non-FSA
affiliated groups to take over strategic areas in
northern Syria such as oil-rich Hasakah province
and Aleppo.
Any fighting between the
Syrian armed opposition and Kurdish militias
trying to establish their authority in
Kurdish-dominated
areas could strengthen the
resolve of the government led by Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad. Moreover, the fighting could
indicate that Turkey is facilitating the entry of
Syrian armed rebels into Syria to prevent the
influence of Kurdish groups affiliated to the
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Even as
Syrian insurgents fighting in the streets of
Damascus call for President Bashar al-Assad to
flee the country while he still can, there is the
possibility that a new front may open in the
struggle for Syria as Kurdish nationalists
increasingly come into conflict with Islamist
militias fighting the Assad regime.
Serious clashes erupted on November 19
between Islamist groups and fighters of the Syrian
Kurdish Partiya Yekitiya Demokrat (PYD -
Democratic Union Party) in the border town of Ras
al-Ayn (Kurdish: Serekaniye), killing at least 18
combatants. This is the second time serious
fighting has erupted between Islamist groups
fighting Assad and combatants of the PYD, which is
affiliated to the larger Partiya Karkeren
Kurdistan (PKK - Kurdistan Workers Party) but
publically denies such ties for fear they could
lead to placement of the PYD on international
terrorist lists.
While Turkey is worried
about the increasing influence of the PYD, the PKK
is concerned by Turkish support to the Free Syrian
Army (FSA) and claims that Turkey is hatching
plans to destroy PYD influence in Syria.
The Syrian Kurds are a non-Arab minority
that comprise up to 10% of the population and are
spread over three Kurdish-dominated enclaves in
the provinces of Aleppo and Hasakah. [1] These
areas are close to the Turkish border, and since
2011 the PYD has managed to extend its control
over large parts of these enclaves through its
Yekineyen Parastina Gel (YPG - People's Defense
Units) to the despair of Turkey.
The
recent clashes came after Massoud Barzani, the
president of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, failed
in his efforts to prevent PYD influence from
spreading in Syria. Barzani supported an agreement
in July between Syria's Kurdish National Council
(KNC) - a weak coalition of more than 11 political
parties and youth groups supported by Barzani -
and the PYD in order to prevent a Kurdish civil
war.
For Barzani, Kurdish infighting, or
Kurdish fights with the Syrian armed opposition
could destabilize security in the Kurdistan region
of Iraq, and he has warned against this
publically. These tensions indicate that a new
battlefront near the Turkish border could be
opened between anti-Assad Islamist fighters and
combatants associated with the PKK, slowing down
rebel progress against Damascus and Aleppo.
PYD-FSA war in Aleppo The FSA
and Arab Islamist groups are perceived to be close
to the interests of the Turkish state by the PYD,
while the FSA and other armed groups have accused
the PYD of working with the Assad government. The
PYD claims to be neutral and has made unofficial
deals with both Syrian rebels and the government
to take control of more Kurdish areas. As a
result, there have been minor clashes with both
security forces of the regime and Syrian rebels.
Major clashes erupted for the first time
on October 26 in the Kurdish al-Ashrafiya
neighborhood of Aleppo, where dozens were killed
and hundreds kidnapped by both sides. Clashes also
occurred in Aleppo and near the Syrian towns of
Efrin and Azzaz, between the PYD and the 1,200
strong non-FSA affiliated Northern Storm Brigade,
which controls the vital crossing from Aleppo
province into Turkey. The PKK based in the Qandil
Mountains near the Iraqi-Turkish border also
threatened to support its PYD affiliate.
Despite media reports that the clashes
could lead to sectarian conflict between Kurds and
Arabs, the PYD blamed other rival Kurdish groups
of being involved in the incident with the support
of Turkey. The YPG stated that, of the 19 FSA
combatants killed in the clashes, seven were Kurds
affiliated to Mustafa Cummaa's Freedom Party,
which has been the most critical of the PKK.
Deputy FSA commander Malik al-Kurdi claimed the
conflict was caused by Kurdish groups pushing the
FSA to fight with the PYD.
The increasing
success of the FSA and other armed Islamist groups
has led to the movement's spread to
Kurdish-dominated areas in northern Syria. Thus
clashes broke out after Syrian Islamist groups
entered PYD-controlled districts, breaking the
alleged cold truce between the two groups that
said the FSA or other armed Islamist groups would
not enter PYD-controlled areas. The PYD was not
willing to help the FSA to fight Assad, but was
also disinclined to fight the FSA unless the
Syrian insurgents entered PYD-controlled areas.
Both the FSA and the YPG realized that
fighting between them could benefit the Assad
regime (Today's Zaman, October 31). "We and the
Free Syrian Army are one side, we are not on
opposite sides," PYD-official Sinem Muhammad told
Jamestown [2].
The two sides therefore
engaged in negotiations over the control of
checkpoints and the handover of detainees. On
November 1, the FSA announced that it had reached
an agreement with the PYD stating that both sides
aimed to topple the Assad-regime and would hand
over detainees. The PYD's foreign representative
Alan Semo told Jamestown that the initial
agreement was only meant to stop further fighting
while other demands were still negotiated. [3]
One of the primary demands impeding the
progress of negotiations was the fate of YPG
Commander Nujin Deriki (aka Shaha Ali Abdo), who
was captured on October 26. On November 2, the YPG
claimed that she had been tortured to death, which
led to demonstrations and further tensions. The
FSA subsequently announced she was still alive and
was supposed to be released.
It seemed
that the Syrian regime tried to prevent the FSA
and PYD from reaching agreement by shelling the
Kurdish districts of Aleppo on November 4, killing
three people. On November 10, the FSA released the
YPG commander, leading to diminished tensions
between the groups in Aleppo.
The new
conflict in Hasakah Just as tensions
between the PYD and the FSA were dying down, the
Islamist Ghuraba'a al-Sham (Strangers of Greater
Syria) Brigade and al-Nusra Front entered the
Kurdish city of Ras al-Ayn on November 9 from the
Turkish town of Ceylanpinar and the nearby village
of Tel Halaf. The area is populated by Kurds and
Arabs, leading to fears among Syrian Kurds that
the war would spread to Hasaka province.
Initially, those fears proved unfounded as
this did not lead to fighting between the
Islamists and the Kurdish YPG units, with the YPG
retreating to Kurdish districts of the town and
the FSA controlling Arab parts of Ras al-Ayn.
However, it did lead to accusations from
PYD-affiliated media, such as the Kurdish news
agency Firat News, that Turkey was behind the
entry of armed groups into Ras al-Ayn, trying to
involve Kurds in the civil war. A PYD-affiliated
group claimed in a statement that they would not
allow armed groups into Kurdish districts.
On November 11, the Ras al-Ayn area was
bombed by fighter jets, artillery and helicopters,
leading to the death of dozens of civilians and
insurgents. The bombing lasted for three days,
with most inhabitants fleeing the city for Turkey
or the Kurdish-controlled town of Derbisiyye.
After the Islamists moved into Ras al-Ayn,
the YPG forced remaining Syrian government
security elements from Derik (al-Malikiyah),
Amude, Derbisiye and Tel Amir, fearing the arrival
of Syrian insurgents and the spread of fighting.
The YPG indicated it did not want to give "the
regime [or] the FSA any excuse to come here. We
don't need anyone to protect us".
Turkey
amassed its troops near the border and condemned
the Syrian military operations that led to the
death of civilians in Ras al-Ayn. Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu stated that the Syrian air
bombardment of Turkish border towns was a clear
threat to Turkey, adding that Turkey would shoot
down Syrian fighter jets if they cross the border.
The PYD's foreign representative, Alan
Semo, told Jamestown that the PYD is worried that
under the Adana Agreement, Turkey could
characterize the ensuing refugee crisis as a
threat to the "security and stability of Turkey,"
leading to a legal path for Turkish intervention
in Syria. "You might see the FSA on Turkish tanks
coming into Kurdistan. This scenario can happen,"
he said. [4]
Turkey worried about
PKK Reports emerged on November 14 that
Turkish tanks were amassing on the border of Ayn
al-Arab (Kobani) alongside FSA units. Others have
suggested that Western diplomats fear Turkey is
supporting the FSA to prevent an autonomous
Kurdish region in Syria. In reality, Turkey is not
against Kurdish autonomy in Syria (or in Iraq)
since it has good relations with the Syrian
Kurdish nationalist parties of the Kurdish
National Congress, but it does oppose the
increasing influence of the PYD and the PKK in
Syria.
The United States fully supports
the Turkish position of opposing any PKK presence
in Syria. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
expressed her support at a joint news conference
in Istanbul with her Turkish counterpart Ahmet
Davutoglu, saying, "We share Turkey's
determination that Syria must not become a haven
for PKK terrorists whether now or after the
departure of the Assad regime."
The
clashes that erupted between the armed Islamist
groups and the PYD on November 19 further raised
PYD suspicions of Turkish involvement. The fact
that wounded Islamist fighters were transported to
Turkish hospitals showed a certain degree of
Turkish support. A temporary truce was made on
November 19 to hand over wounded and dead bodies.
But on November 20, fighting resumed again between
the Islamist groups receiving reinforcements from
the Turkish border and the PYD receiving
reinforcements from other Kurdish cities in Syria.
The fighting stopped after a ceasefire agreement
between the two sides on November 23.
Kurdish political parties have argued that
the armed Syrian opposition should fight Assad in
Damascus or Aleppo, not in Kurdish areas. It is
likely that in the current situation more clashes
could erupt due to the fact that armed Syrian
Islamist groups expressed their intention to
expand their operations outside of Ras al-Ayn to
other Kurdish-dominated cities such as Amude,
Qamishli and Derik.
However, according to
Abdul Basit Sieda, former head of the Syrian
National Council (SNC), it is unlikely that Turkey
would use this expansion of the conflict to
establish a humanitarian corridor in northern
Syria without support from the West: "If Turkey
wants to move, they need the international
community to accept it." [5]
Turkey could,
however, facilitate the supply of reinforcements
and weapons for the FSA to attack the PYD.
Moreover, it could try to use Western support to
decrease PKK influence in Syria and try to
pressure the United States or European Union to
put the PYD on the terrorist list.
The
problem for Turkey is that fighting between the
PYD and Syrian rebels could increase PYD support
in Kurdish communities and make it more difficult
for other Kurdish groups not to support the group
against the Arabs, especially as some of those
fighting against the PYD are allegedly former Arab
settlers who were brought to the area by the
Syrian government as part of its "Arab belt"
policies.
Conclusion The PYD
already has a traditional support base around the
Kurdish areas of Aleppo and is increasing its
support. Therefore, Turkish attempts to physically
eradicate the PYD could prove to be troublesome
and lead to an Arab-Kurdish civil war. It seems
that Turkey is focused on preventing the PKK from
controlling autonomous Kurdish areas instead of
supporting the insurgency in Syria to overthrow
the Assad government. Continued fighting between
Kurds and Arabs in the Hasakah province could
weaken Syrian rebel advances against Assad and
strengthen the current weak position of the Assad
government.
Notes: 1.
Jordi Tejel, "Syria's
Kurds: Troubled Past, Uncertain Future,"
Carnegie Middle East Center, October 16, 2012.
2. Author's interview with Sinem Mohammed,
head of the PYD-affiliated People's Council of
West-Kurdistan (PCWK). 3. Author's interview
with PYD foreign representative Alan Semo,
November 11-15, 2012. 4. Foreign Minister
Davutoglu There
is not even a minute to lose, Ministry of
Foreign Affairs. 5. Author's interview with
Abdul Basit Sieda, November 19,
2012.
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