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  The Complete Henry C K Liu

  

MONEY AND COMMODITY MARKETS
Henry C K Liu was born in Hong Kong and educated at Harvard University, US,in architecture and urban design. His interest in economics and international relations started when he participated in interdisciplinary work on urban and regional development as a professor at the University of California Los Angeles, Harvard and Columbia. He is currently chairman of a New York-based private investment group.

QE: Part 2
Negative interest
The consequence of a negative interest rate regime pursued by central banks is to shift the pain of deflation from banks to depositors, from debtors to creditors, and from borrowers to lenders. Negative interest rates are the ultimate market distortions in an already madly distorted market. - Henry C K Liu (Nov 4, '13)
Part 1: Misdirected QE is mere sleight of hand

A new world order and China's key role
The continuing financial crisis offers Asia an opportunity to forge a fairer deal in its economic relations with the rest of the world. China has a key role to play, but it must reduce its reliance on foreign trade and free itself from dollar hegemony. - Henry C K Liu (Oct 30, '13)
This is the first in a series.

Misdirected QE is mere sleight of hand
Japan this year joined other leading economies in adopting the desperate measure of quantitative easing (QE) to stimulate its economy. Yet unless QE money is targeted directly on creating new employment to restore consumer demand, it is merely a monetarist maneuver. - Henry C K Liu (Jul 17, '13)

Euro crisis all in a name
A profound misunderstanding of the European sovereign debt crisis, infecting the thoughts of even respected analysts, arises from it being misnamed: eurozone government debts denominated in euros are not sovereign debts and that is the real reason behind the crisis and the main obstacle blocking recovery. - Henry C K Liu (Jun 21, '13)

Japan bashing quite out of place
Hong Kong is the last place one can expect to find new economics thinking of any kind, so it was perhaps an apt location for misjudged attacks on the Bank of Japan and its new governor Haruhiko Kuroda, courtesy the George Soros-funded Institute of New Economics Thinking and the discredited British technocrat Jonathan Adair Turner. - Henry C K Liu (Apr 17, '13)

China needs vigor in income policy
Retiring Communist Part of China General Secretary Hu Jintao set his successor, Xi Jinping, a goal of doubling income for all Chinese workers by 2020, eight years hence. Adoption of a proactive policy of raising worker wages is encouraging; the timid pace of that commitment is disappointing. - Henry C K Liu (Mar 6, '13)
This is the first part of a series.

Dimon's gambit
US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's call for JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon to quit his position on the New York Federal Reserve Board is mere grandstanding. The bank lost $3 billion-plus, but played by the rules set by the Fed and the Treasury - the real guilty parties. - (May 21, '12)

JPMorgan not so dumb
JPMorgan's US$2 billion loss from hedging operations was a shock to the markets, but amid fuss about about the "Volcker Rule" restricting bank proprietary trading, JPMorgan still has the last laugh - and "dumb trading" was only the half of it. - (May 17, '12)

EUROZONE DEBT CRISIS, Part 5
Euro treaty reform
The agreement reached by Germany and France on reform of the 2009 Lisbon Treaty would give the European Commission new powers to impose austerity on eurozone member states. The irony is that within three years of the euro becoming common currency for 17 countries, Germany and France had been the first to violate "stability and growth" criteria. (Dec 21, '11)

Head for the euro exit
The eurozone countries appear to recall too well Benjamin Franklin's famous warning "We must all hang together, or surely we will all hang separately." There is no compelling reason to preserve the eurozone as constituted, while hanging together may drag the whole area into the abyss of bottomless sovereign debt.

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Low wages and revolutions
World trade through globalization in its current form is an unsustainable game of depressing wages worldwide to produce at low-wage locations to export to economies with higher wages. The revolutions of 1848 bear testimony to the consequences of such folly. (Jun 9, '11)
This is the 13th article in a series.
Part 12: Failed revolutions

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Failed revolutions
United States pressure for China to become a "responsible stakeholder" in the post-Cold War world revived a 175-year-old view that limits political rights and participation to people who have a financial "stake" in society - effectively a call on the Beijing government to abandon its founding principle in favor of a global geopolitical participation that is fundamentally undemocratic. - Henry C K Liu (May 12, '11)
This is the 12th article in a series.
Part 11: Critical theory

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Critical theory
Critical theorists adopt fresh hypothetical stances against accepted traditions, making the coercive application of Western ideals on non-Western societies, concepts that have evolved in the social context of the West as universal truth, a legitimate target for exposure as a battle plan to establish global cultural hegemony. - Henry C K Liu (Apr 21, '11)
This is the 11th article in a series.
Part 10: Rise and decline of institutional economics

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH

Rise and decline of institutional economics
Institutional economists question the presumption that maximization of individual self-interest in unregulated free markets results in the best possible common good. As the world has seen, when the "individual" is Goldman Sachs, the consequences can include a hefty bill that is merely another item in the systemic and legally permitted theft from the poor and powerless. - Henry C K Liu (Apr 6, '11)
This is the tenth article in a series.
Part 9: Low wages take their toll

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Low wages take their toll
The development of free trade following World War II, led by the United States, helped international trade and monetary cooperation to flourish. All went smilingly for the strong economies and the financial elite until the 2007 financial crisis broke from the blowback of systemically induced low wages in all trading economies. - Henry C K Liu (Mar 31, '11)
This is the ninth article in a series.
Part 8: Gold and fiat currencies

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Gold and fiat currencies
Gold, while serving as a safe haven at times of economic crisis, possesses limited palliative power against loss of market confidence in a diseased fiat currency. Indeed, by providing an economically inert hedge against fiat currency debasement, it makes a diseased fiat currency tolerable. - Henry C K Liu (Feb 10, '11)
This is the eighth article in a series.
Part 7: Political response to weak regulation

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Political response weak
towards ineffective regulation

Reform of financial markets has fallen well short of the demands made at the height of the 2007-8 crisis, while the likelihood of government intervention in the gold market overwhelms the prospect of regulation there. The gold bull market will end as soon as the Federal Reserve stops its quantitative easing orgy and raises dollar interest rates. - Henry C K Liu (Feb 2, '11)
This is the seventh article in a series.
Part 6: The London gold market

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
The London gold market
The daily movements of the gold price mask an array of influences and interests well beyond those of the individual investor dipping into a market where the clearing volume in London each week can exceed the annual production of all the world's gold mines. - Henry C K Liu (Jan 26, '11)
This is the sixth article in a series.
Part 1: Stagnant wages leading to overcapacity
Part 2: Gold shows its true metal
Part 3: Labor markets delinked from gold
Part 4: Central banks and gold
Part 5: Central banks and gold liquidity

PAY, PROFIT AND GROWTH
Central banks and gold liquidity
Contrary to common belief, the price of gold is unrelated directly to inflation rates, while amid a decline in the purchasing power of fiat currencies gold can be highly volatile for a range of obscure reasons, among them the involvement of central banks. - Henry C K Liu (Jan 7, '11)
This is the fifth article in a series.
Part 1: Stagnant wages leading to overcapacity
Part 2: Gold shows its true metal
Part 3: Labor markets delinked from gold
Part 4: Central banks and gold

Austerity fails policy test
The tendency for economists to disagree is well-founded, but there is an undisputed general law in public finance that sound fiscal policies must precede a sound currency. What is in dispute is what constitutes a sound fiscal policy. The current austerity mantra does not fit the bill. - Henry C K Liu (Aug 12, '10)

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
Pegs, boards and the IMF curse
The instability of unregulated financial markets poses great danger (and the risk of International Monetary Fund intervention) for developing countries, as already seen from Asia to Argentina. And while the Chinese currency is playing an increased role in the global economy, that does not inoculate Beijing's partners against trade disputes. - Henry C K Liu (Jul 28, '10)
This is the 12th article in a series.
Part 11: The folly of common currencies

The business cycle lives
The 2007 collapse of global deregulated markets hasn't run its course, yet three years into the mother of all financial crises a US president elected by populist political forces has still to enact measures put forward years earlier that could have prevented the crash. - Henry C K Liu (Jul 21, '10)

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
The folly of common currencies
Europe should not be surprised at the difficulty it faces in maintaining a common currency across widely divergent economies. The examples of Argentina and Hong Kong in their efforts to peg their currencies to those of other countries should have been lesson enough. (Jul 15, '10)
This is the 11th article in a series.
Part 10:The trillion-dollar failure

The fighting twins
Trade and fiscal deficits both contribute to increases in public debt, but a constructively used fiscal deficit can be an effective measure to wean economies - those with trade deficits or those with trade surpluses - from excess dependence on foreign trade. (Jul 14, '10)

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
The trillion-dollar failure
The Greek debt crisis has ushered in austerity measures across the eurozone and beyond, forcing the young, the working poor and the elderly to pay for the careless profligacy and corruption of governments, the propertied rich, and financiers. In all cases, social democrats support the cuts, telling working people that there is "no alternative". There is. (Jun 9, '10)
This is the 10th article in a series.
Part 9: Greek crisis, German politics

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
Greek crisis, German politics
Efforts to drive through bailout packages for Greece exposed and exacerbated strains between European Union member states and within those countries, notably Germany. The political, as well as the economic, costs of this crisis are rising, and spreading to the United States. (May 26, '10)
This is the ninth article in a series.
Part 8: Greek tragedy

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
Greek tragedy
The roots of the debt crisis in Greece, a country of almost insignificant size, are buried under decades of financial myth-making condoned by stronger European powers and nourished by the creative geniuses of American banks. The fruit is a credit market meltdown greater than that of 2008 and doubt on the future of the euro. (May 20, '10)
This is the eighth article in a series.
Part 1: The crisis of wealth destruction
Part 2: Banks in crisis
Part 3: The Fed's no-exit strategy
Part 4: Fed's double-edged rescue
Part 5: Too big to save
Part 6: Prudence and folly

Part 7: Global sovereign debt crisis

Volcker - time for real change
United States President Barack Obama's decision to lean more on ex-Fed chief Paul Volcker reflects the US economy's dismal state and his failure to halt the decline in jobs. Yet full employment is an achievable goal. In the longer term, he could attack financial sector corruption, starting with a look at his own White House. That would be change in which to believe. - Henry CK Liu (Jan 28, '10)

Stiglitz pinpoints 'moral' core of crisis
Nobel Laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz rightly condemns the "ersatz capitalism" of the United States, yet the government there is fixated on resurrecting the morally depraved system that led to the present crisis. Reformists forget that predatory lenders in the US in theory forfeit any right of collection. Start to fix that, and a new economic order could emerge. - Henry CK Liu (Jan 25, '10)

China and a new world economic order
China can exert a positive influence on a new world economic order by setting an example with its own national development policy. Settling exports in yuan, not in US dollars, would be a start, allied to central planning and a domestic goal of full employment with rising wages. And any idea of throwing money at green technology to spur recovery should be dropped. (Jan 11, '10)

China trapped in surplus cul-de-sac
With United States sovereign debt no longer the obvious safe place as a store of value, China's continued purchase of US Treasuries with its trade surplus dollars is open to question. Yet the answer is that China has no other options. (Jan 7, '10)

Krugman blaming victim for the crime
American economist Paul Krugman's claims that China is following a predatory mercantilist policy to keep its trade surplus artificially high errs in several ways, not least that only the United States, these days, is placed to pursue mercantilism. (Jan 5, '10)

The supply-side tax con
Average American wage earners are encouraged against their own interests to support lower progressive tax rates, unaware that these benefit only those who have been oppressing workers with the workers' own pension money. (Dec 14, '09)

Repo time-bomb redux
The US House Financial Services Committee proposes that creditors caught in the failure of a large bank should lose up to one-fifth of the value of the debt. Such a measure threatens directly the working and value of the repo, or repurchase, market. The Lehman Brothers collapse and subsequent global financial crisis should demonstrate only too vividly the risks of messing with that. (Dec 4, '09)

DERIVATIVE REFORM, Part 2
The courageous Brooksley Born
Brooksley Born's efforts to bring over-the-counter financial derivatives under the regulatory control of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which she chaired, won her the prestigious John F Kennedy Profile in Courage Award - 11 years after those efforts failed. Had she succeeded, the present financial crisis would likely have been radically different. (Dec 3, '09)
This article concludes a two-part series.
Part 1: The folly of deregulation

DERIVATIVE MARKET REFORM, Part 1
The folly of deregulation
A United States congressional hearing on reform of the over-the-counter derivative market would do well to recall that derivatives are not in themselves weapons of mass destruction, even though their presence is found suspiciously close to the wrecked heart of most recent financial meltdowns. (Dec 2, '09)
This is the first article in a two-part series.

US should curb cross-border cash flows
Criticism of Malaysia's imposition of currency controls early in the 1997 Asian financial crisis eventually turned to recognition that it was the correct action to take. The United States should take similar action to regulate the cross-border flow of speculative funds - it is the only way a low Fed funds rate will help the US economy. (Nov 23, '09)

CHINA'S REVOLUTION, Part 5
Surplus and capital formation
China's post-revolution challenge was to transform a feudal economy whose surpluses were mostly unproductive into a system that would increase capital formation and hence national income. Land reform, a significant contributor in the pursuit of this goal, remains a key issue in the country's progress and potential. (Nov 18, '09)
This is the fifth article in a multi-part series.
Part 1: In the beginning was Tiananmen
Part 2: Revolutionary lessons
Part 3: Lessons of the Soviet experience
Part 4: Mao's legacy lives on

Failure written into 'too big' policy
Even as Washington tries to ensure limited damage from any future collapse of "too big to fail" financial institutions, its own policies are helping the top US banks tighten their market dominance. Nor is Washington addressing the inherent risk from small entities failing in large numbers. (Nov 9, '09)

Lesson unlearned
Eighty years after the market crash in the United States that led to the Great Depression, the "lessons" learned from that grim period have since been accepted by central bankers, in particular the role of monetary policy. They have also given birth to an economics of instability. The real lesson is that weak national economies must seek redress through economic nationalism. (Oct 29, '09)

POWER WITHOUT CREDIBILITY
Politics of the financial crisis
United States Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, already criticized for the close relationship between the Fed and big lenders, now has to withdraw cash from the financial system. The trick, giving banks even more cash so they can buy back toxic debt, will leave the economy to rot with rising unemployment and a damaged dollar. (Sep 16, '09)
This article concludes a three-part report.
Part 1: Bogged down at the Fed
Part 2: A lost decade ahead

POWER WITHOUT CREDIBILITY
A lost decade ahead
The US Federal Reserve faces an intractable unemployment problem. Households, their wealth savaged by the financial crisis and their job security threatened, are now paying off debts and cutting back on purchases. Until consumer spending picks up, no recovery can come. (Sep 14, '09)
This is the second article in a three-part report.
Part 1: Bogged down at the Fed

POWER WITHOUT CREDIBILITY
Bogged down at the Fed

President Barack Obama's announcement of Ben Bernanke's reappointment as US Federal Reserve chairman overlooked the economist's close involvement with policies that landed the global economy in its current sorry state. It also diverted attention from unwelcome new budget data. - Henry CK Liu (Sep 10, '09)
This is the first article in a three-part report.

MONEY AND COMMODITY MARKETS
Integrity deficit has its price
The role of a reserve currency in international trade is to keep all trading nations monetarily honest. A reserve currency issuer, such as the United States, can violate the laws of monetary integrity to finance fiscal and trade deficits - but not for ever, and not with impunity. - Henry CK Liu (Aug 19, '09)
This is the first article in a series.

Dollar's future in US hands
China's moves to have its exports paid for in yuan should not be interpreted as a push to make the yuan a reserve currency for international trade. The US dollar will continue to play this role - if the United States puts its own financial house in order. - Henry C K Liu (Jul 1,'09)

False profits and prophecies
AIG Financial Products, whose disastrous credit default swaps brought the company to its knees, was taking advantage of regulatory arbitrage, a practice Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, called "desirable". Another ominous cause of the credit crisis was regulatory risks being defined by credit ratings, which led to the two feeding off each other. - Henry C K Liu (Jun 23,'09)

OBAMA, CHANGE AND CHINA
Group of Two the wrong number
Advocates in the United States of a Group of Two power pairing that would link Beijing and Washington in leading a new world order acknowledge China's desire for recognition as a global power. But they overlook China's preference for multilateralism and the energy it is devoting to deepening ties around its northern and western borders. - Henry C K Liu (Jun 18,'09)
This report is the fifth in a series
Part 1: The song stays the same
Part 2: A dangerous balance
Part 3: The New Deal dollar and the Obama dollar
Part 4: Brzezinski's G-2 grand strategy

Obama tip-toes on regulatory reform
Republicans are preparing to fight several of President Barack Obama's proposals for reform of financial market regulations. There is plenty to criticize, yet much of it has been inherited from the previous Republican administration. - Henry C K Liu (Jun 17,'09)

Liquidity drowns meaning of 'inflation'
The standard terms of "inflation" and "deflation" no longer hold sense as US government intervention perpetuates a broken financial system where financial profits rise as demand and prices fall. Only reform toward full employment with rising wages will save this economy. (May 26,'09)

MONETARISM ENTERS BANKRUPTCY
Credulity caught in stress test
Regulators are beginning to grasp that "too-big-to-fail" in the debt-driven financial democracy that is the US now encompasses individual mortgage or credit-card holders. The government has already got the picture, evident in its negotiation of the "must pass" stress test for banks. (May 12,'09)

MONETARISM ENTERS BANKRUPTCY, Part 2
Central banks and the burden of elitism
Banks are indispensable for a working economy; badly-run banks ignoring sound banking principles are not. What is needed in a depression is not more central bank money for distressed banks but government deficit money to sustain full employment with living wages. (May 5,'09)
This report is the second in a series.
Part 1: Monetarism enters bankruptcy

World leaders miss the target
The world leaders who met in London this month proved adept at posturing for the TV cameras while missing the important opportunity to redefine the predatory terms of international trade created by dollar hegemony. (Apr 14,'09)

OBAMA, CHANGE AND CHINA, Part 1
The song stays the same
President Barack Obama's promise of a new approach to politics is yet to be reflected in the US position regarding China, while financial bailouts led by the US are following the tired formula of cutting jobs and driving down wages. China appears to be the only exception of this trend. A redefinition of US national interests is critical if Obama is to succeed with his agenda of change.  (Mar 5,'09)
This report is the first in a series.

OBAMA, CHANGE AND CHINA, Part 2
A dangerous balance
Trade and currency values have long been a contentious issue at the heart of the relationship between China and the West. Yet the appreciation required to close China's balance of payment surplus would cause instability for the whole global economy - including collapse of the US retail trade.  (Mar 12,'09)
This report is the second in a series
Part 1: The song stays the same

OBAMA, CHANGE AND CHINA, Part 3
The New Deal dollar and the Obama dollar
The US, encouraged by the likes of President Barack Obama's advisor Larry Summers, has for decades mismanaged its finances by exploiting the hegemonic character of the dollar in international trade. Beijing, for one, needs to forge an economic strategy independent of Washington's. (Mar 31,'09)
This report is the third in a series
Part 1: The song stays the same
Part 2: A dangerous balance

OBAMA, CHANGE AND CHINA, Part 4 
Brzezinski's G-2 grand strategy
Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski, in seeking a United States and China "Group of Two" to jointly address global challenges, rightly recognizes that the days of a unipolar world order are numbered. His mistake is in believing China wants to partner a weakening US, or would gain from such ties. (Apr 21,'09)
This report is the fourth in a series
Part 1: The song stays the same
Part 2: A dangerous balance
Part 3: The New Deal dollar and the Obama dollar

THE FOLLY OF INTERVENTION, Part 1
The zero interest rate trap
Two traps - those of liquidity and zero interest - demonstrate the futility of central bank macroeconomic attempts to use both quantitative and credit easing to stimulate an economy contracting from excessive debt and leverage. They merely sow the seeds for significant future inflation.  (Jan 21,'09)
This is the first article in a two-part report.

THE FOLLY OF INTERVENTION, Part 2
No easy exit for nationalization
The notion that nationalization is only an emergency measure that can be undone promptly when the economy recovers is wishful thinking. We should realize that nations too can go bankrupt, even nations which were once superpowers.  (Jan 22,'09)
This article concludes a two-part report
Part 1:
The zero interest rate trap

MONETARISM ENTERS BANKRUPTCY, Part 1
Monetarism enters bankruptcy

The US Federal Reserve era under Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, with their belief that central bank monetarist measures can indefinitely perpetuate the business-cycle boom phase, proved only that mainstream monetary economists read the same books. As the world is discovering, Milton Friedman's mantra that "only money matters" turned out to be a very dangerous slogan. (Jan 5,'09)

China's inflation-free route from crisis
China must move away from export dependence to a high-wage, full-employment economy. Credit creation outside of the government's fiscal budget, with the use of work-creation certificates, poses no threat of inflation and offers a route to early achievement of this goal. (Dec 23,'08)

Restoring China's national destiny
Different nations profess different destinies at different stages of their history, be it the Ottoman dominion's to maintain peace or that of the US to expand into Central America and the Pacific. Until China realizes that export based on low wages is a self-diminishing strategy, the country's destiny to be restored to its rightful position in the world will be held back. (Dec 15,'08)
This is the fifth part of a continuing series
Part 1: Breaking free from dollar hegemony
Part 2: Developing China with sovereign credit
Part 3: History of monetary imperialism
Part 4: Gold, manipulation and domination

CHINA AND THE GLOBAL CRISIS, Part 2
Beijing holds key to prosperity

China's best contribution to stabilizing the world economy is to develop the country's domestic market, raise earnings and pursue full employment - a strategy opposite to that being pursued in the United States. It should also cease importing dysfunctional economic systems such as predatory, neo-liberal, cowboy market capitalism. (Dec 5,'08)

CHINA AND THE GLOBAL CRISIS, Part 1
Denial amid the storm

It took more than a year for President George W Bush to belatedly acknowledge that the financial crisis resulting from decades of US irresponsibility is not merely a passing shower. Even then, the terms of his ideological surrender, bloated by self-deception, sought merely to perpetuate the causes of collapse.(Dec 4,'08)

Black hole gapes for pensions
Assets of public pension funds are crumbling - Calpers by 20% in its most recent quarter. Public employees now face having to contribute more towards their retirement schemes as the bankers responsible for the crisis that led to such losses are rewarded obscenely. (Oct 30,'08)

Killer touch for market capitalism
The US government has predictably failed to jump-start credit and capital markets, failing to recognize that assets will stay illiquid until price adjustments bring about market transactions. Government monetization of illiquid assets will only prolong their illiquid life span. This approach risks the total destruction of market capitalism. (Oct 29,'08)
This concludes a two-part series.

Part I: US government throws oil on fire

US government throws oil on fire
The US government, by continuing to misdiagnose the credit crisis, perhaps even purposely, has become part of the problem thanks to flawed responses backed by the people's money. On top of a trickle down of prosperity during the boom phase of the bubble in which wealth stayed mostly at the top, there will be a pouring down of the hot oil of loss on taxpayers. (Oct 22,'08) 
This is the first of a two-part series.

Too big to fail versus moral hazard
Alan Greenspan, when Federal Reserve chairman, noted that the US economy, "with its wide financial safety net, fiat money, and highly leveraged financial institutions, has been a conscious choice of the American people since the 1930s". The costs of that choice are coming headlong like a runaway freight train. (Sep 22, '08)

COMMENT
Friedman's misplaced monument
The University of Chicago's plans to establish a research institute commemorating economist Milton Friedman, whose now increasingly discredited influence shaped the world, are inappropriate. Opposition can help expose Friedmanite market fundamentalism as a device that rationalizes the exploitation of the many by a few the world over. More than money matters. (Sep 4, '08)

CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE, Part 1
Breaking free from dollar hegemony
China, by seeking growth through exports for US dollars, has trapped itself in a crisis-prone mismatch between domestic policies to assure sustainable growth and monetary policy dictated by dollar hegemony. Only sovereign credit can redress the numerous resulting problems, including a shortage of capital needed to develop its economy. (Jul 29, '08)
This is the first part in a two-part analysis.

CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE, Part 2
Developing China with sovereign credit
The privatization of China's public sector and opening of its financial sector to predatory global capital continues even as neo-liberals in the crisis-hit West clamor for government intervention. This is a con game China should not seek to emulate. (Sep 3, '08)
This is the second part of a four-part analysis
Part I: Breaking free from dollar hegemony

CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE, Part 3
History of monetary imperialism
Given US dollar hegenomy, China and Japan have little choice but to invest their export earnings in US Treasuries or other dollar-denominated assets. In consequence, China now lends to the US more than double the vast sums Washington lent to war-torn Europe in 1947 under the Marshall Plan. And the US is anything but war-torn. (Sep 25, '08)
This series will be continued
Part 1: Breaking free from dollar hegemony
Part 2: Developing China with sovereign credit

CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE, Part 4
Gold, manipulation and domination
For China, the world's biggest creditor nation, to allow successful national development it must cease having its currency a derivative of the US dollar and stop relying on a US-dollar denominated trade surplus to finance domestic development. The historic role of gold and its manipulation tells it as much. (Oct 1, '08)
This is the fourth part of a continuing series.
Part 1: Breaking free from dollar hegemony
Part 2: Developing China with sovereign credit
Part 3: History of monetary imperialism

Debt capitalism self-destructs
With free-market capitalism turned into a gigantic Ponzi scheme, witness troubled mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the world is witnessing the collapse of the central banking regime that came into being in the US in 1913. At the same time, amid all talk of how to deal with the crisis, not one official voice is heard about the need to increase worker income. (Jul 21, '08)

Flat-earther blind to oil facts
Columnist Thomas L Friedman's demand that the United States set an oil-price floor of US$100 a barrel to trigger renewable-energy investments and end the country's oil "addiction" is worse than simplistic. The realities were clear three years ago when oil was at $50. Little has changed. (Jun 27, '08)

Fed and the strong dollar policy
US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's need for lower interest rates to stimulate the US economy conflict with the Treasury's need for a strong dollar to deal with runaway oil prices. The Fed should recognize that its actions are misguided. The potential harm of a sustained weak dollar can make the credit crisis look like a minor storm. (Jun 17, '08)

THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 1
A rich free-market legacy - for some

The sight of businessmen such as E Stanley O'Neal of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup's Chuck Prince pocketing millions of dollars as they quit companies losing billions in value sticks in the throat of those whose money has been lost. Even some congressmen have figured something is wrong with such rewards for failure. Fair game, say others. (Mar 11, '08)

THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 2
Long-term effects of the Civil War
The present deepening and widening financial crisis is laying naked the wealth-making mechanisms of society's elites while wreaking havoc with the lives of low-paid workers. It is also making imminent a wave of populist reform that may extend for several decades. In this are echoes of the New Deal era and much earlier reactions to economic depressions. (Mar 13, '08)


THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 3
The progressive era
Ideological ferment at the close of the 19th century left the US with impressive political and economic reforms for future generations to build on. Yet fundamental issues - notably those involving race and economic centralization at the expense of economic democracy - dating back to the nation's birth have even now not been resolved. (Mar 26, '08)

THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 4
A panic-stricken Federal Reserve
The recent moves by the US Federal Reserve, amid fears of an economic depression, to inject liquidity into the credit market and to bail out banks and brokerage houses are looking more like fixes for drug addicts in advanced stages of abuse. But for neo-liberal market fundamentalists, the fear is not of an economic depression, but the populism that may follow it.  (Apr 1, '08)

THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 5
Rubin's poisoned chalice
The Roaring Twenties and their aftermath demonstrated the need for regulation to rein in the suicidal excesses of financial free markets, a lesson US Treasury secretary Robert Rubin ignored in his promotion of deregulation. But whereas the 1932 presidential election was held amid a severe depression, the full impact of the bursting of bubbles created by Rubinomics will be felt only after President George W Bush leaves office. (May 19, '08)

THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 6
The birth of the New Deal
Jimmy Carter in 1979 warned of a "crisis of the soul and confidence". With gas and gold prices more than treble those confronting Carter and a trade surplus with China turned to an annual US$200 billion deficit, the US needs its next president to match Franklin D Roosevelt's Great Depression battle cry that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself". (May 21, '08)

HK-Macau planners go for costly option
A proposed 36-km bridge to straddle the Pear River Delta between Hong Kong and Macau is to be developed under the build-operate-transfer system of funding, with a 50-year operating period. It is a remarkable choice given the wealth of the local governments involved. (Mar 4, '08)

THE ROAD TO HYPERINFLATION, Part 1
Fed helpless in its own crisis
The US Federal Reserve, desperate to prevent the home mortgage crisis from infesting the whole economy, is trying to inject funds into financial institutions - a counterproductive response to a credit crisis caused by years of excess liquidity. Hyperinflation lies down the road. (Jan 25, '08)

THE ROAD TO HYPERINFLATION, Part 2

A failure of central banking
Before 1913, there was no US central bank to bail out troubled commercial and financial institutions or to keep inflation in check. The near 2,000% rise in prices since then underlines the dismal failure of the Fed to fulfill its role as the nation's monetary guardian. (Jan 29, '08)

THE ROAD TO HYPERINFLATION, Part 3
Inflation targeting
The market has lost faith that governments will have the courage to adopt the policies and models necessary to keep the economy growing without debt or inflation. The world must stop looking to the flawed institution of central banking to bail it out of a monumental debt crisis with more debt. (Feb 20, '08)

PATHOLOGY OF DEBT
PART 5: Off-balance-sheet debt
Increased willingness of companies and banks to take on off-balance-sheet debt helped to boost spending and support a buoyant economy. But promises that those debts would be paid by the banks when they come due, even if the vehicles that held the debt could not repay it, are coming back to haunt lenders as good times turn to bad. (Nov 30, '07)
This is the conclusion of a five-part analysis.

 PART 1: Banks as vulture investors

 PART 2: Commercial paper and pesky SIVs

 PART 3: The credit guns of August

 PART 4: Lessons unlearned

SUPER CAPITALISM, SUPER IMPERIALISM
PART 2: Deregulation: Global war on labor
It is time for all countries to seek solutions to problems created by the exploitative terms of world trade, by focusing on fundamental issues of domestic development before the prodigal global trading system collapses from its own contradictions and brings forth global depression. Unless and until an equitable international trading system is negotiated, economic nationalism is a proper response to neo-imperialism. (Oct 12, '07)

Either way, it could be an unkind cut
Whether the Fed lowers the Fed Funds rate depends on whether it sees 6% unemployment on the horizon. Yet a cut in short-term rates may do more harm than good by not helping to sustain a liquidity boom, yet fueling accelerated inflation; not to mention leading to a loss of confidence on the part of the market in the Fed's ability to manage a monetary and financial crisis. (Sep 17, '07)

CREDIT BUST BYPASSES BANKS, Part 1

Rise of the non-bank financial system
The financial crisis brought to the world's attention by the subprime time-bomb is no longer one of liquidity, but of deteriorating creditworthiness throughout the global system. The liquidity crunch is a symptom, not the disease. The disease is a decade of permissive tolerance for credit abuse in which banks, regulators and rating agencies were willing accomplices. This is the first article of a two-part analysis.(Sep 5, '07)

CREDIT BUST BYPASSES BANKS, Part 2
Bank deregulation fuels abuse
The Glass-Steagall Act, born of the chaos and misery of the Great Depression, reined in the excesses longed for by the US financial services industry. Finally, in late 1999, the Clinton administration yielded to industry pressure and repealed the act. Today we see the result: a raging forest fire in the non-bank financial system that will present finance capitalism with its greatest test in eight decades. (Sep 6, '07)

Central bank impotence and market liquidity
What the US Federal Reserve is trying to do in the current subprime crisis is not merely to restore market liquidity, but to preserve excess liquidity in the market. In other words, it is trying to avoid a crisis by setting the stage for a bigger future crisis. (Aug 23, '07)

THE INTEREST RATE CONUNDRUM, Part 1
Economics of denial
All of a sudden, in an interruption of the spectacular rise of global stock markets driven by abnormally ample liquidity, all eyes are trained on rising interest rates. But because of the hegemony of the US dollar, a fiat currency that by definition does not behave like other currencies, rising interest rates cannot have the effect against inflation predicted by mainstream economic theory. All in all, exchange rates mask the reality that all currencies are decreasing in value. (Jun 12, '07)

THE INTEREST RATE CONUNDRUM, Part 2
How currency devaluation destroys wealth
As central banks thrash about creating new bubbles to contain older ones, real wealth is sucked into a black hole of imaginary plenty. The downward spiral will continue as long as the masters of the global financial system continue to be guided by fantasies such as the "free market", a dream world (though a nightmare for most) in which wealth can materialize from falling wages. (Jun 13, '07)

A dialogue of the mute
On the face of it, Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi - the "Iron Lady" of Beijing - enters the second round of the Sino-US Strategic Economic Dialogue this week with a strong hand. But with support for the lame-duck Republican administration at a historically low ebb and beset by a vehemently anti-China Democratic Congress, Wu and her counterpart Henry Paulson are doomed to discuss the wrong issues at the wrong time. (May 22, '07)

Liquidity boom and looming crisis
A debt-driven financial crisis threatens to put an end to the liquidity boom and the accompanying global financial mania that has decoupled equity markets from economic reality. All will melt away in a catastrophic unwinding some Tuesday morning (New York time). And China cannot save the world. It's part of the problem.  (May 8, '07)

CHINA AND APPEASEMENT, Part 1
Beyond Munich: Geostrategy and betrayal
US neo-cons have exploited the term "appeasement", made famous by the Munich Pact that sacrificed Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany, to disparage any diplomatic move they don't favor. But appeasement, today as much as in the 1930s, is a common foreign-policy tactic that sometimes succeeds, at least in the short term. Henry C K Liu examines appeasement with Chinese characteristics, and why it isn't working. (Apr 27, '07)

CHINA AND APPEASEMENT, Part 2
Not much rise, and even less peace
While the term "peaceful rise" has been replaced in official Chinese rhetoric by "peaceful development", Washington's invitation to China to become a "stakeholder" in the US-dominated international system and the post-Cold War unipolar world order engineered by the US has given the appeasement faction in Chinese political circles new ideological energy. But if it follows this path, China will not rise, and the result will not be peaceful. (Apr 30, '07)

CHINA AND APPEASEMENT, Part 3
China's misguided 'experts' on the US
Beijing's leaders evidently believe that Washington has China's best interests at heart. Yet there is ample evidence not only that the United States cares only about the United States, but that it is, always has been and will continue to be particularly hostile to China. Beijing's leaders are getting bad advice.  (May 1, '07)

Why the subprime bust will spread
Years ago when the US debt bubble spread to the housing sector, warnings from many quarters - including Henry C K Liu - about the systemic danger of subprime mortgages were dismissed by Wall Street cheerleaders as "sky is falling" hysteria. Now, belatedly, financial wizards are slowly realizing that their earlier departure from reason has fueled a phenomenon that is poised to cause severe damage to the global finance system. (Mar 16, '07)

The US as leading currency manipulator
In the wake of Tuesday's announcement of yet another record-smashing US trade deficit, the usual chorus of moans about China's currency is in full voice. China must stop "manipulating" the yuan to keep it undervalued, we hear. Yet, argues Henry C K Liu, no government leaves the exchange rate of its currency to market forces. This is particularly true of the US, which sings free-trade lyrics to protectionist music. The trade distortions have been created by US policies, and the China critics are in effect telling Beijing to pay for US errors. (Feb 14, '07)

Paulson, China and the turmoil beneath
There is much that is dysfunctional and unsustainable in US-China economic relations, but these are not issues that US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will be able to resolve in discussions with Chinese officials. The problems are the result of fundamental imbalances brought about by globalization and dollar hegemony, and Paulson need travel no further than his own back yard. (Dec 13, '06)

CUT AND RUN, Part 1
Fleeing self-destruction is common sense
Disastrous policy is disastrous policy, no matter how long and how shrilly neo-conservatives and their true believers in the Bush administration wish to fantasize otherwise. The US public this month voted for a change of course in Iraq, and such a change is already in the works. It's just a question of how, and how long. (Nov 20, '06)

CUT AND RUN, Part 2
Looking to Syria for help
The Iraq Study Group recommends that the Bush administration bring neighboring states, including longtime pariahs Iran and Syria, to the table as it tries to extricate itself from the Iraq quagmire. But there is much history behind US animosity against Syria.

CUT AND RUN, Part 3
Iran and the failed US Iraq policy
The long-cherished neo-conservative dream of taking over oil-rich Iraq, rejected by two US presidents, found a willing agent in George W Bush. Four years after the invasion, the US now faces a Shi'ite-led regime in Baghdad - something neighboring Iran was unable to accomplish in eight years of bloody war against Saddam Hussein. Henry C K Liu examines the benefits and challenges the new Iraq presents to Tehran. (Mar 20, '07)

Regime-change blowback
For at least 50 years, the US has pursued a policy of belligerent regime change in the Middle East that time and again has suffered from unforeseen consequences, or "blowback". The results of the US mid-term elections indicate that the American people have realized that this has happened in Iraq and in Afghanistan. The result: regime change at home. (Nov 10, '06)
 
CHINA AND THE US, Part 1
The lame duck and the greenhorn
While George W Bush struggles to keep his administration, and the fortunes of the Republican Party, from imploding, his counterpart in China is still learning how to cope as the leader of a rising great power. China and the US have always had a tense relationship, but it is one they cannot avoid, whatever their leaders' personal difficulties.  (Jun 22, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 2 
The challenge of unilateralism
US unilateralism did not start with the Bush administration. Its moralistic roots lie in US foreign policy after World War II, especially over policy on China. At its most dangerous, unilateralist policy undermines the regime of nuclear non-proliferation.  (Jun 30, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 3
Dynamics of the Korea crisis
Geopolitical undercurrents flow through the Korea missile crisis as they do in the Middle East. Under way are attempts to forge new international climates so as to restructure existing regional security patterns. In East Asia, the undercurrent relates to the rearmament of Japan as a counterweight to a rising China. (Aug 16, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 4
Proliferation, imperialism and 'China threat'
As in the 1940s, perceived threats, misunderstandings, racism and outright lies are bringing the West, led by the US, into conflict with East Asia, led by China. Even Japan's elevation to "honorary white" status has parallels in World War II.  (Sep 8, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 5
Kim Il-sung and China
Six decades after the end of World War II, the US posture on Korea and Taiwan remains basically the same, to prevent the unification of the two Koreas and the ending of the Chinese civil war with a no-war, no-peace status quo, thus keeping two major Asian nations from normalizing their wartime anomalies. And now there is a new policy of "containment". (Sep 15, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 6
Korea under Park Chung-hee
The continued isolation of North Korea is just fine with some players in the Great Game, as evidenced by the twice-stalled progress toward reunification. The first home-grown reunification effort was hatched in 1972 by Southern president Park Chung-hee, who was assassinated under mysterious circumstances. But the story's not over yet. (Oct 24, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 7 
Clinton's belated path to peace
When Bill Clinton took over the White House, it was a time of opportunistic hostility toward China dictated by US domestic political sentiments. For a number of reasons, not least a near-war with North Korea, China remained on the back burner for most of Clinton's two terms. But at least peace with Pyongyang was maintained, for a while.
(Oct 31, '06)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 8
Bush's bellicose policy on North Korea
The latest crisis involving North Korea, which tested a nuclear weapon on October 9, did not begin on that date - it began six years earlier, when George W Bush entered the White House and promptly overturned the progress the Clinton administration had made toward rapprochement with Pyongyang. (Jan 4, '07)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 9
The North Korean perspective
The US has always claimed that it wants a nuclear-weapons-free Northeast Asia, but its actions - especially since the advent of the Bush administration - in the Korean Peninsula belie that. "Axis of evil" member North Korea, on its part, has long provided evidence that it supports non-proliferation and denuclearization, notwithstanding its missile and weapons tests last year. (Jan 10, '07)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 10
The changing South Korean position
South Korean politics has been evolving along two parallel paths since the Cold War. One path moves toward increasing resistance to US domination, and the other toward closer ties with neighboring China. Both paths lead to moderation of Cold War ideological hostility in South Korea toward its estranged Northern fraternal state. (Feb 6, '07)

CHINA AND THE US, Part 11
Japan's strategy to be a 'beautiful nation'
Saddled with a dark history of imperialism and aggression, Japan's efforts to remake itself in the eyes of its Asian neighbors have been an uphill struggle for six decades. While its youngest ever prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has made serious efforts to mend fences, there remain good reasons for skepticism over Japan's true loyalties, motives, and long-term intentions. (Mar 2, '07)

America's untested management team
The US Treasury has not been performing at its best in the past six years. Enter Hank "the Hammer" Paulson, fresh from Goldman Sachs, ready to tackle the challenges facing the world's biggest economy. He will find that the greatest of those challenges lie not in Beijing, Moscow or Caracas, but at home in the US. (Jun 16, '06)

THE WAGES OF NEO-LIBERALISM, Part 1

Core contradictions
Despite all evidence, the US in particular continues to delude itself that fair exchange rates, especially for the Chinese yuan, would solve economic ills. But Western exchange-rate policies have long been part of the problem; what economies worldwide should be floating is wages, not exchange rates. (Mar 21, '06)

THE WAGES OF NEO-LIBERALISM, Part 2
The US-China trade imbalance
A rising US trade deficit with China has generated much heat but little light about unfair Chinese trade practices. The real danger to the US economy is that the US sovereign debt rating is now dependent on the soundness of Chinese sovereign debt - in other words, on China's credit rating. (Mar 31, '06)

THE WAGES OF NEO-LIBERALISM, Part 3
China's internal debt problem
China's fiscal policy has begun a gradual shift from "proactive" to "prudent". Beijing now urgently needs to deal with pressing economic and social problems that have been created by its transition from a socialist planned economy to a "socialist" market economy. One key factor is how to handle the national debt in a system dominated by US dollar hegemony. (May 26, '06)

WAGES OF NEO-LIBERALISM, Part 4
Development financing and urbanization
Similar to other developing countries, the most fundamental problem China faces in its path toward industrialization is urbanization. This is not solely a hallmark of the country's economic growth over the past two decades, or of the policies of the Communist Party. It is reflected in millennia of Chinese history.
(Jul 21, '06)

PART 4
Toward living wages
in the modern era

The idea of a global labor cartel is based on the needs of a modern economy for managing consumer demand to overcome structural overcapacity, which globalization has made a worldwide problem. The rules of economic democracy mandate that capital in a modern economy is formed from the savings of labor, which in turn depends on rising wages. (Mar 8, '06)

THE WIZARD OF BUBBLELAND
PART 4: Global money and currency markets
Any notion that money is not available, or that it may not be available at any price, only raises alarm to panic and enhances panic to madness, with a total loss of confidence. Yet the acceptance of loans at abnormally high interest rates is itself a sign of panic. Against such contradictions, no central bank - including the Fed under Alan Greenspan - has found the appropriate wisdom. (Feb 15, '06)

Of debt, deflation and rotten apples
The US and Japanese economies have both been ailing for a long time, with different symptoms of the same disease. While the latter struggles with deflation, in the US the trade apple is kept shining on the outside by sucking nutrients from a slowly depleting, rotting core, eaten away by a growing debt worm, turning a sick economy into a terminal case. (Jan 10, '06)

Superpower vulnerability
It is simplistic to blame America's crusade of moral imperialism on the neo-conservative cabal that currently dictates US foreign policy. The scene was set long before their rise to power, and the harsh (and still unlearned) lessons of the futility of forcing a set of mores on others can be seen throughout history.

The real oil crisis
As all oil money returns to the US anyway because of the unabated appetite for dollar assets, $50 oil will buy the US debt bubble a little more time. The key issue of the coming oil crisis is ballooning equity prices unsupported by earnings. We are heading toward a replay of the '80s, when a widening trade deficit and a precipitous fall of the dollar triggered the 1987 collapse of the equity markets. (May 25, '05) 

Hong Kong appeal court in the dock
The Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal thinks it can rule on constitutional issues of sovereignty and overrule China's parliament, grossly misinterpreting the territory's "high degree of autonomy" bestowed by Beijing to mean independent sovereignty.(May 13, '05)

Nationalists, communists mending fences
For the first time in more than 50 years of estrangement from the Chinese Communist Party, the Taiwan-exile Kuomintang Party has sent a delegation to mainland China. This is an examination of the history of the historical break, and signs of reconciliation. (Apr 4, '05)

The glorious role of Tung Chee-hwa
History will judge that Tung Chee-hwa, who retired because of failing health - not political banishment - was never part of the problem, but part of the solution. The day will come when Hong Kong longs for a leader as kind, gentle and accommodating as Tung, his glorious place assured in Chinese history. (Mar 22, '05)

Looking after the little man
The US has evolved into a superpower in the course of two world wars and will remain one for the foreseeable future. As such it has earned the privileges associated with the instinctive prerogative of a tough big guy. But the complete American character requires the US to champion the defenseless little guys of the world as well.  (Sep 16, '04)

A poisonous geopolitical jungle
An iron rule of terrorism is that what goes around, comes around from geopolitical blowback. One cannot exterminate terrorism any more than mosquitoes, except by reordering the ecosystem. Despite shining examples of this lesson being ignored - with dire results - in the Middle East, the US remains unbending in its geopolitical goals. (Sep 14, '04)

Geopolitical weeds in cradle of civilization
Since the modern Iraqi state was the artificial product of Western geopolitical maneuvers in the cradle of civilization during the age of European imperialism, Iraq's full geopolitical spectrum has always included Pan-Arabism beyond narrow state interests. This was overlooked when the US decided to topple Saddam Hussein. This is the second part of an on-going series. (Sep 2, '04)

Geopolitics in Iraq an old game
The Americans are not the only ones to have had a tough time of it in Iraq. Neither the Persians nor the Ottomans could keep the population effectively in check, and the British occupiers also failed. Iraq's troubled history goes back centuries, and its echoes resound forcefully today. (Aug 17, '04)

Occupation highlights superpower limits
Sunnis in Iraq and the region are torn between their fear of a rise of the Shi'ites in Iraq and their commitment to Arab nationalism stimulated by foreign occupation. Neither option has any room for US superpower dominance. (Apr 19, '04)

MAO AND LINCOLN, Part 1
Demon and deity
While vilifying Mao Zedong, the neo-liberal West has idolized Abraham Lincoln. Unlike Lincoln, Mao is not given credit in the West as a revolutionary of noble principles who fought for equality using all necessary means. Yet Lincoln's assault on due process was more violent than Mao's. (Mar 30, '04) 

MAO AND LINCOLN, Part 2
Great Leap Forward not all bad
Mao Zedong has been vilified over the Great Leap Forward, but 30 million people did not die. The numbers are wildly exaggerated, and Henry C K Liu argues that many deaths were caused by cyclical famine and a US embargo on grain imports. Today, globalization causes greater suffering.  (Mar 31, '04)

REALPOLITIK AND BUSH'S REVOLUTION
Part 1: The Philippines revisited
George W Bush early this month sought to justify his country's bloody and costly occupation of Iraq as part of a proactive "global democratic revolution". Shortly thereafter, Bush visited a country still paying the price for a failed US policy of imposed democracy: the Philippines. (Nov 18, '03) 

REALPOLITIK AND BUSH'S REVOLUTION
Part 2: Flawed visions of democracy
George W Bush has built his new policy of world democratic revolution on the assumption that democracy in foreign lands would automatically welcome US imperialism in the name of capitalistic free trade. We see now that not only can democracy not be easily imposed from outside, even if it does take root it may well flower in ways detrimental to US interests. (Nov 19, '03)

The Election Cycle Theory and the Fed
US stock market moves, some suggest, follow the four-year US presidential election cycle, with stocks declining or rising depending on how the Federal Reserve reacts to political expediency and perceived, or imposed, economic necessity. A look at the history of this theory and how it might affect the 2004 campaign. (Feb 23, '04)

Fed's pugnacious policies hurt economies
United States Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan denies that Washington's policies caused the crash of 1987 and helped create the later "irrational exuberance" and economic bubble that burst, damaging US, Asian and other national economies. Meanwhile, there's the issue of the vaunted stock market "recovery" of last year that was - and is - fiction. (Jan 9, '04)

The war that could destroy both armies

In April, a letter to the editor of Asia Times Online critical of a Henry C K Liu article predicting that the Iraq war could "end the age of superpower" suggested: "Reread his article six months from now as a test of his ability to prognosticate." Six months have passed, and Liu takes another look at the challenges facing the US military. (Oct 22, '03)

How Turkey's goose was cooked
While in Turkey recently for the seventh International Conference on Economics, Henry C K Liu had occasion to see the effects of that country's adherence to neo-liberal market fundamentalism under the rules imposed by foreign agencies. (Sep 15, '03)

America's selective strong dollar policy
Since the start of 2002, the US dollar has fallen as much as 30 percent from its peak against the euro, and has also declined against other key currencies, but the current US administration still officially maintains a long-term strong-dollar policy. Henry C K Liu examines the sustainability of this policy in the light of neo-imperialist dollar hegemony. (Aug 13, '03)

Realism finds new champions
In the wake of protests in Hong Kong against a proposed anti-subversion law, US observers are suddenly exhibiting neutral respect for historical facts about the territory, and are at the same time adopting a pragmatic view of Taiwan's relations with the mainland. Henry C K Liu doubts Hong Kong Democrats, or pro-independence Taiwanese politicians, will follow suit.
(Jul 30, '03)

Why Hong Kong is in crisis
This week, on the sixth anniversary of Hong Kong's establishment as a special administrative region of China, half a million of its people took to the streets in a clear illustration of the serious disconnect between the territory's government and the governed. While the protest was billed as being against Hong Kong's proposed security law, the most heartfelt discontent is rooted elsewhere. (Jul 3, '03)

War that may end the age of superpower
The Iraq war will end from its own inevitable evolution. And it will not be a happy end. There is yet no discernible exit strategy for the US. After this war, the world will have no superpower, albeit the US will remain strong both economically and militarily. But the US will be forced to learn to be much more cautious, and more realistic, about its ability to impose its will on other nations through overwhelming force.  (Apr 4, '03)

Power and the new world order
Thomas Friedman, the Pulitzer-winning voice of US neo-liberalism, has rapped China for not getting on board with US foreign policy. But why should it? Indeed, why should any nation-state be a cheerleader for a World of Order that exists primarily for the economic benefit of a single entity - the United States of America? (Feb 24, '03)

Building on the lessons of history
As New York City prepares to memorialize the September 11 tragedy on the site of the destroyed World Trade Center, other great - and not so great - architectural projects may serve as lessons. In the conclusion of a two-part analysis of the WTC project, Henry C K Liu offers an historic guide. (Feb 12, '03)

The towering challenge of the WTC project
The vitality and resourcefulness that allowed New Yorkers to move on from the tragedy of September 11 are being tested as the city plans how to replace the twin towers of the World Trade Center. Henry C K Liu examines the project's enormous challenges in a two-part series. (Feb 11, '03)

War and the military-industrial complex
After World War II, the role of defense spending in the US shifted from domestic economic stimulant to global geopolitical weapon. But while Ronald Reagan successfully used Star Wars to bankrupt the USSR, the nature of armaments has fundamentally changed with the arrival of biological and chemical weapons. Terrorism can only be fought with the removal of injustice, not by developing anti-missile defense shields and smart bombs.  (Jan 30, '03)

The Bush plan: Global-scale disappointment
The world is at a very dangerous moment caused by violent political fallouts from the destructive economic impacts of neo-liberal trade globalization. All wait for the president of the United States to command the awesome power of his office to "think big" and lead the world to economic recovery. Instead, we are given the Bush "growth and jobs" proposal, which merely reinvokes dated supply-side theories and further enriches the rich. (Jan 9, '03) 

US on Hong Kong: Calling the kettle black
A leading US newspaper has deplored "Hong Kong's current drive to enact insidious security legislation that threatens its people's freedoms", and George W Bush has reportedly phoned Jiang Zemin to express concern over Hong Kong's proposed national security law. That would be the same George Bush who signed into law the draconian USA Patriot Act. (Jan 2, '03)

Reaganite moralists and Hong Kong security
The Project for the New American Century has released an open letter to George W Bush calling for official US opposition to proposed new national security laws in Hong Kong. Henry C K Liu examines PNAC - a who's who of the US political right - and whether its anti-China stance needs to be taken seriously. (Dec 6, '02)  

Hong Kong pegged to a failed policy
Since its establishment at the start of the Asian financial crisis, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has operated on a single-note monetary policy: that of defending its currency's peg to the US dollar. While the SAR's economy plummets, the peg paralyzes all new policy initiatives. (Oct 15, '02)

Crippling debt and bankrupt solutions
A movement to tackle distressed sovereign dollar debts through an international bankruptcy regime has gained momentum in neo-liberal circles. But the proposals favored by creditors focus on the wrong models in bankruptcy law, and would serve to enslave debtor nations further while leaving the global economic system at risk. What is needed is a debtors' revolt. (Sep 27, '02)

The economics of a global empire
To find the true source of an empire in today's world, take a page from Watergate lore and simply "follow the money". The trail leads to the world's low-wage exporting nations - notably China - which unwittingly spent the past 20 years funding the US hegemony that they now deplore.  (Aug 13, '02)


China vs the almighty dollar
Global capitalism is the tool by which world economies are kept subservient to the United States economy through dollar hegemony. Asia, in order to service its dollar-denominated debts, is thus forced to keep wages low and provide Americans with cheap imports. But China is now in a position to change this state of affairs. (Jul 22, '02)

Series

A proposal
by
Henry C K Liu

The Coming Trade War
(Jul, '05) 

A 10-part series

Money, Power
and
Modern Art  


On China's currency

China-US:
The Quest
for Peace


Religion, enlightenment, and imperialism


A critique of the role of the world's central banks

 
 

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