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Balochistan tribes threaten Pakistan's
gas riches
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - At a time when the world's media are
busy watching developments in Central Asia and the
Middle East, a bitter struggle is taking place in the
southern Pakistani province of Balochistan between local
tribesmen opposed to Western companies exploiting
natural gas reserves and the central government in
Islamabad.
The issue came to a head recently,
boiling over into a 10-day armed standoff between the
Pakistani armed forces and the tribals. Dialogue has now
resumed, but sources close to the tribal chiefs say that
the most powerful chief and former chief minister of
Balochistan, Nawab Akber Bugti, is not prepared to
abandon his opposition to Western exploration companies
operating in the province, fearing that they will
ultimately take over control of his land.
The
tribes in Balochistan have long agitated for autonomous
status, or even an independent Balochistan state, and
they happen to be located amid Pakistan's most plentiful
gas reserves. A key deep-sea port is being developed
with Chinese assistance at Gawadar in southwest
Balochistan on the shores of the Arabian Sea. And to
further add to the region's strategic value, important
cross-national oil pipelines are planned to traverse the
state.
Pakistan has 25.1 trillion cubic feet
(Tcf) of proven gas reserves, and currently produces
around 0.8 Tcf a year, all of which is consumed
domestically. Natural gas producers include Pakistani
state-owned companies Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) and
Oil and Gas Development Corporation (OGDC), as well as
BP, ENI, OMV, and BHP. The largest currently productive
fields are Sui in Balochistan, by far the largest at 650
million cubic feet per day (120 Mmcfd), Adhi and
Kandkhot (120 Mmcfd), Mari, and Kandanwari.
Surveys in the area pinpointed several potential
areas in Balochistan for natural gas development. These
included the Zainkoh range in Dera Bugti Tribal Agency,
the Jandran area of Kholu in the Mari Tribal Agency and
Sarooria in Khuzdar district.
The military
regime of President General Pervez Musharraf therefore
decided to open these areas for exploration, but they
are controlled by the Bugti, Mari and Mengal tribes,
which have traditionally been at the heart of rebellion.
All three tribes were pro-USSR during the Cold
War, and in the early 1970s they revolted against the
central government. Their insurrection was brutally
stamped out by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's government. Iran
also helped Islamabad to quell discontent because the
rebellion aimed to establish a Balochistan state beyond
Pakistan's borders, including areas of Iran and
Afghanistan.
Now, though, the situation has
changed somewhat. It is believed that Baloch tribes are
in contact with the administration across the border in
eastern Iran in Zahadan province, and through it they
are in contact with the Tehran government, which is
keeping a close eye on developments in Balochistan.
In mid-2000, Pakistan said that it would permit
a natural gas pipeline linking Iran's massive reserves
to rival India across Pakistani territory. Pakistan
would earn transit fees and also would be able to
purchase gas from the pipeline as it needed. While Iran
and Pakistan have shown great interest in the project,
India has been reluctant to move forward as long as
political and military tensions with Pakistan over
Kashmir persist, although a feasibility study is under
way. Another possible natural gas pipeline would link
the Caspian Sea gas-rich Turkmenistan with Pakistan via
Afghanistan
These proposed pipelines, plus the
development of Gawadar into a deep 27-berth port that
would accommodate both large tankers and military
vessels, have severely irked the tribes in Balochistan,
as has the presence of more than 20 exploration
companies - mostly British and American - active in the
region.
Such was the antagonism of the tribes
that they were not allowed to work on the gas fields,
and the security situation deteriorated, resulting in
both local and foreign development companies declaring
"political force majeure" - a term used to hold in
abeyance a work program required under an agreement due
to political and security issues beyond the control of
investors. The Sui and Uch fields, for example, had come
under rocket attack.
On September 11 last year,
Musharraf, while presiding over a meeting in Quetta,
gave September 30 as a deadline for the force majeure
clauses to be lifted. This deadline was not met, and
work still remains halted in the region.
Relevant authorities and officials of the
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources subsequently
held meetings with tribal elders through the Balochistan
state government, and a package was hammered out.
The Rs890 million (US$15 million) package
included several measures to encourage the involvement
of local as well as foreign companies in exploration
activities, and provisions for the relocation of the
Mari, Bugti and Mengal tribes people to more secure
areas with proper facilities and social welfare
facilities.
And last month an agreement was
signed in Quetta by the director-general of Petroleum
Concessions, G A Sabri, the heads of OGDCL and PPL and a
representative of Nawab. The low-profile ceremony,
sources said, was also witnessed by Nawab himself and
the secretary for petroleum affairs, M Abdullah Yusuf.
Under the accord Nawab would ensure the security
of oil and gas exploration activities in Balochistan, as
well as the protection of existing installations. In
return for guaranteeing security, the PPL and the OGDCL
would recruit as many as many as 150 Bugtis at the Uch
and Sui fields. The federal government has now asked
Nawab to send a list of candidates he wants recruited so
that it can be passed on to the companies.
Further, all of the social welfare and uplift
projects will be routed through Nawab, but no cash
transactions would be involved. The government will also
rebuild the road from Uch to Sui, and well as stand
guarantor to agreements between the companies and Nawab.
Quetta Corps Commander Lieutenant-General Abdul
Qadir Baloch has been assigned to conclude similar
agreements with representatives of Sardar Attaullah
Mengal and Sardar Khair Bakhsh Mari, without further
delay. The corps commander has been briefed about the
details of the "Bugti agreement" and similar concessions
the government has already discussed with Sardar Mengal
in London. The agreement with Mengal was to be signed in
London, where is in self-exile, but now both sides have
agreed to sign it in Quetta.
However, it now
appears that Nawab has reversed his position, and
despite his pledges to the federal government he has
threatened anyone coming to his district with death.
This pushed the government into a massive deployment of
Frontier Constabulary and Pakistan army troops in the
area. In retaliation, the Bugti tribes mobilized their
forces, and the 10-day standoff ensued.
Dialogue
has resumed and the government has constituted a new
body to negotiate terms and conditions with Nawab, who
sources say is adamant that he will never allow US or
British companies to operate in his region, fearing that
they will boot him off the land and deny his tribe their
mineral resources.
Chinese and Iranian
companies, however, will be allowed access to the area.
The sources say that the latest revolt is likely to last
a long time. Exploration companies will be the first
target, Gawadar Sea port, which would be the terminus of
the Caspian Sea pipeline, would be the next target.
And Balochistan, a huge land rich in oil and gas
resources and with a small population spread in
Afghanistan Iran and Pakistan, could become a new focal
point in regional and international disputes.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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