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An ominous clock-tick in Sri
Lanka
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Over five months after Sri Lankan
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader Velupillai
Prabakaran signed a ceasefire agreement as part of a
peace initiative to end the 19-year long conflict in the
country, the process seems to be stuck.
Under
the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in
February, the two sides agreed on a series of steps that
would be taken ahead of peace talks. The pace of events
in the initial months was rapid, in fact so rapid as to
raise concern that things were moving too fast.
However, over the past two months there has been little
visible progress, and this has triggered the opposite
concern: that all might not be going well with the peace
initiative.
The two sides had agreed to hold
direct talks in Thailand, due to start in May, but they
have been put off several times. The direct meeting in
London on Saturday between the individuals who will be
representing the government and the LTTE in Thailand has
revived hopes in the peace process. During the meeting,
Minister Milinda Moragoda and LTTE chief negotiator
Anton Balasingham are believed to have discussed the
ceasefire agreement, as well as preparations for the
talks, including the agenda and the question of an
interim administration.
Quoting highly placed
government sources, the Sri Lankan newspaper Sunday
Times reports that although no specific dates had been
fixed for direct talks, a date in September was most
likely. The exact date, the report says, would be
decided on during further consultations.
The
Norwegian facilitators in the peace process have
described the London meeting as "a major step forward
toward peace". The truce has largely held since late
December when the Tigers announced a unilateral
ceasefire that was quickly reciprocated by the
government and later formalized in the MoU.
However, there are strong signals that the
situation is fragile. Last week, the Tigers shot a Sri
Lankan soldier dead in what is regarded as one of the
most serious breaches yet of the truce agreement. A
statement from the Norwegian-led truce monitoring team
said the soldier, after venturing into "the zone of
separation in the Jaffna peninsula for unknown personal
reasons" shot at four rebels, who returned fire.
Although both sides have downplayed this incident, they
have over the past few months been accusing each other
of violating the ceasefire agreement.
In early
July, the truce monitoring team said that it had
received 380 complaints of ceasefire violations since
February. Of these, 270 complaints were made against the
LTTE and 110 against the government. So far, the
monitoring team has investigated and upheld more than 50
Tiger violations and 20 government violations.
The most common complaints against the Tigers
are kidnapping and abduction, followed by harassment and
extortion. The government has been guilty of harassment
and of restrictions on movement and restrictions on
fishing. The monitoring team is still investigating
complaints that include forced recruitment and
recruitment of child soldiers by the LTTE, and
harassment and occupation of civilian land by government
forces.
Complaints of ceasefire violations have
come mainly from the Batticaloa district in the Eastern
Province. Analysts believe this is where fighting could
break out again. It was in the Eastern Province that
communal violence between Muslim and Tamil mobs erupted
in June-July.
Tigers attribute the delay in the
peace talks to the government not meeting all its
obligations under the MoU. An important Tiger demand
that the ban on the organization be lifted (the Lankan
government proscribed the LTTE in 1998 following a
suicide attack on the sacred Tooth Temple at Kandy)
remains unfulfilled. The government has indicated that
it will lift the ban once the Tigers give a firm date
for talks.
There are worrying signs too that all
is not well between the LTTE and the Norwegian
mediators. On July 13, the Tigers held two members of
the truce monitoring mission hostage on one of their
trawlers when the latter came aboard to investigate a
complaint filed by the Sri Lankan navy that the vessel
carried communication equipment in violation of the
terms of the ceasefire agreement. The incident is said
to have soured relations between the Norwegians and the
LTTE.
Sri Lankan newspapers have reported that
the LTTE is exploring the possibility of holding direct
talks with the government and excluding the Norwegian
contingent. Sunday Times reports that there was a
"pause" in interaction between the LTTE and the
Norwegians – the latter were unable to get in touch with
Balasingham in London for some days. While they did
eventually meet on July 15, a further deterioration in
relations will deal the peace initiative a severe blow.
It is becoming increasingly clear that both
sides are, in anticipation of a collapse in the peace
process, preparing for war. The LTTE has gone on a
massive recruitment campaign and has intensified
training of its cadres. According to Iqbal Athas, a
leading Sri Lankan defense analyst, the LTTE is
procuring weapons on a massive scale. In an article in
the Sunday Times, he writes that both local and foreign
intelligence sources believe that recent shipments have
included "extended range" artillery and mortar shells.
There is serious concern, too, that the LTTE is also
seeking missiles for use at land or sea. Besides, the
LTTE is working on expanding its civilian administrative
machinery.
Likewise, the Sri Lankan government
is preparing itself for a return to the bunkers should
the peace process collapse. The government has been
assured clear support from among others, the US, the UK,
the European Union, China and India. In addition to
specialized training for commandoes and soldiers, these
countries are also said to be providing the armed forces
with military equipment.
Wickremesinghe’s
difficulties back home are further complicated by the
serious deterioration in relations last week between his
government and President Chandrika Kumaratunga. She has
warned that she can dismiss his government. Under the
Constitution, she can do so in December when the
Wickremesinghe government completes a year in office.
There is a deep personal rivalry between the two. They
also differ on how the peace process should move
forward.
Wickremesinghe will have to move fast
to get the LTTE to the negotiating table. He is in
danger of sacrificing the gains made so far with regard
to negotiating peace with the LTTE. He is running out of
time.
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