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Kashmir's vote of no
confidence
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Despite its efforts to widen
participation in the forthcoming election to the Jammu
and Kashmir (J&K) Assembly, it appears that India’s
bid to draw the separatists into the electoral exercise
might be on the verge of collapse. With little over a
month left for the vote - the Election Commission
announced last week that elections would be held on
September 16 and 24 and October 1 and 8 - New Delhi
could be running out of time.
The last day for
filing nominations for electoral constituencies going to
the polls in the first round on September 16 is August
29. This leaves the government less than a fortnight to
get the separatists to contest the poll.
There
are growing indications that the forthcoming poll could
be a repeat of the 1996 electoral exercise when the
National Conference (NC) romped home, almost
unchallenged in the election. In 1996, the militant
groups and the All-Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), an
umbrella organization of separatist organizations,
boycotted the election, leaving the field open to the
NC.
This time too, the Hizbul Mujahideen has
issued a boycott call while the Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen has
threatened to kill anyone who takes part in the
elections. No separatist group has yet agreed to contest
the poll.
Despite steps to strengthen the
moderates within the Hurriyat, New Delhi seems to have
failed to get the organization to endorse the election.
On Monday, Hurriyat chairman Abdul Gani Bhat dismissed
the elections "as an irrelevant exercise", saying "we
have made it clear that we will not participate in the
polls and the issue no longer exists for us." Only last
week, a Hurriyat leader, Moulvi Abbas Ansari, had said
the organization was ready to reconsider its decision to
boycott the polls if India took steps to normalize the
situation and if elections were held under the
supervision of international observers.
However,
it is the continuing refusal of Shabbir Shah, leader of
the Democratic Freedom Party, to contest the poll that
is more disappointing. Unlike the Hurriyat, sections of
which are known to have close links with Pakistan, Shah,
though not pro-India, is strongly anti-Pakistan. He has
been engaged in dialogue with New Delhi for several
months now and is not opposed to elections. India was
hoping that he would contest the elections, easing the
way for other separatists to follow. But on Friday,
following the government’s announcement of the poll
schedule, Shah announced that he would stay away from
the electoral exercise as the government had not
accepted his demand "for a dialogue before going for any
such [electoral] exercise".
Another
disappointment has been Abdul Majid Dar, former
"operations commander" of the Hizbul Mujahideen, who was
expelled by the organization's Pakistan-based leadership
some months ago. After raising hopes in Delhi that he
might throw his hat in the ring, Dar seems to have lost
interest.
As for Sajjad and Bilal Lone, sons of
the recently assassinated Hurriyat leader Abdul Gani
Lone, "although the two are outspoken in their criticism
of the Hurriyat and of the Pakistan-based militants,
they are reluctant to take the next step, that is, come
on board and contest," says an Indian intelligence
official in Srinagar. He attributes the moderate
separatists' reluctance to contest to a mix of fear and
anger - fear of the militants' guns and anger with
India's foot dragging with regard to conceding their
demands.
With the exception of the ruling NC,
all Kashmiri political parties and separatist
organizations that seem inclined to contest have
demanded that elections be held under governor's rule
(where the state administration is taken over by the
federal government for a specified period of time) and
that dialogue precede elections.
Kashmiri
political groups feel that they cannot hope for a level
playing field if the NC remains in control of the
administrative machinery. A period of governor’s rule in
the run up to elections could make the election more
inclusive as political groups, presently deterred by a
set-up skewed in favor of the ruling party, will be less
reluctant to contest.
"Although both the prime
minister and the deputy prime minister have talked of
imposition of governor’s rule, they are not announcing
it because they do not want to upset the NC," says a
Kashmiri journalist. The NC is part of the ruling
coalition in Delhi, but relations between the NC and the
Bharatiya Janata Party, the core coalition partner,
especially in recent months, have been troubled.
"Delhi seems to have accepted that governor's
rule is indispensable to make the poll inclusive and
credible. But it is dithering and that could prove a
costly mistake," the journalist says. "It has to
convince the separatists that they have a fair chance of
winning."
The announcement of poll dates by the
EC has formally set in motion the election process. The
decision to hold the elections on schedule (before the
term of the present government ends) is being plugged by
sections in the Home Ministry as evidence of Delhi’s
commitment to holding elections on time in Kashmir and
to ensure that the government meets the constitutional
requirement for a new assembly before October 17.
However, there is concern, too, that the
government might have acted in haste in calling for
polls in September-October, that in seeking to be seen
to be doing the right thing it is missing the point of
the exercise, which is to make the polls inclusive and
to restore peace in the strife-torn state.
The
announcement of the polling dates has triggered a
negative response from the moderate separatists. It has
hardened their stance to the election. They see Delhi’s
sticking to the schedule as another instance of its
rigid approach, its unwillingness to listen to what they
have to say. Delhi, in their perception, has rejected
their demand for postponing the polls in deference to
the NC's demand for immediate elections.
The
Kashmir Committee, a group of eminent Indians that is
engaging in dialogue with the separatists, has denounced
the EC's announcement of election dates as it "has
complicated efforts to ensure the broadest possible
political participation in the election process. It has
come even before the government could initiate a
dialogue to elicit such a participation." Besides,
"those who have agreed to take part in the elections
after a lapse of many years simply do not have enough
time to arrange their logistics". The separatists lack
the grassroots network and machinery that the NC has,
and it has been 20 years since the electoral rolls in
J&K were revised. It is unlikely that the election
commission will be able update it by September.
Notwithstanding the absence of positive signals
from the separatists and the limited time it has to woo
them to contest, the government, it seems, has not given
up hope. It is persisting with dialogue with the
separatists at various levels and through an array of
interlocutors, as well as "track II" initiatives, such
as the Kashmir Committee, which are private efforts but
which have the government’s quiet blessings.
However, what Delhi needs now is not mediation
but miracles.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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