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Musharraf braced for jihadi
backlash
By Aijazz Ahmed
ISLAMABAD - Pakistan's President General Pervez
Musharraf has taken a firm stand on jihadi organizations
and groups promoting extremism, and he is paying a price
for it, appearing to be losing out on all fronts.
India is complaining of inadequacies in the
efforts of the Pakistan government to curb infiltration
into Indian-administered Kashmir, and refuses to engage
in any diplomacy or talks until it feels its conditions
have been met.
The US has commended Musharraf's
efforts, but persistently pressurizes for further
measures to reduce the movement of jihadis across the
Line of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir, extending
sympathy to India, and even maintaining that it has
proof of "current" movements across the LoC.
Musharraf has also left open the sore of
religious extremist groups who have been suppressed
after more than two decades of active support from
Pakistani authorities.
The threat of retaliation
by the jihadi outfits has risen, and poses a problem for
the internal security of the country. "Musharraf bowed
down to the US-Indian nexus, but the jihadis will
continue their jihad," remarked Yehya Mujahid, spokesman
of the Jamaat-e-Dawa Pakistan, formerly known as the
Lashkar-i-Taiba, an Islamic militant group that has been
active in Jammu and Kashmir since the early 1990s. "We
will remain committed to the Kashmir cause. The
government has slipped from its long-standing position
on Kashmir. Musharraf has taken a U-turn on the Kashmir
policy of the state," said Mujahid.
Musharraf's
military government, in a bid to pacify US-Indian
pressure, launched a campaign to marginalize jihadi
groups, which previously enjoyed support from the
Pakistan army as well as its intelligence services. The
government attempted to curb infiltration into
Indian-administered Kashmir. These efforts were
primarily a direct result of international pressure
after September 11 and US air strikes on Afghanistan,
compounded by India's accusations regarding attacks on
its parliament by suspected Pakistan-based militants
last December.
Acting on the US demands, the
Musharraf-led government arrested Maulana Masood Azhar,
head of the Jaish-i-Mohammad, and Hafiz Saeed, chief of
the Lashkar-i-Taiba, and took dozens of activists into
custody. An official ban was imposed on the groups on
January 12 this year.
Pakistan's patronage of
armed extremist factions was a result of the Afghan
Soviet war, when the US, backed by the international
community, promoted them as a buffer against the
threatening spread of communism. After the defeat and
withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, the jihadis were no
longer required to continue their struggle in
Afghanistan and turned elsewhere to promote their
ideologies. Kashmir provided them a base to reframe
another "cause", and another battlefield was found in
Indian-administered Kashmir.
The Kargil dispute
in 1999 brought into world focus Pakistan's role, and
its "diplomatic and moral" support for the Kashmir
independence movement. The dust of Kargil had hardly
settled when as Indian Airlines plane was hijacked,
forcing New Delhi to release four alleged terrorists
from jail, including Mushtaq Gazdar, a British national
and master of explosive devices, Ahmed Omar Saeed, a
newly-turned British-born jihadi and recently convicted
of masterminding the kidnapping of US journalist Daniel
Pearl, and Maulana Masood Azhar, the chief of the
Jaish-I-Mohammad, an organization banned by Pakistan.
Being a key ally in the US-led international
coalition against terrorism, Pakistan came under
tremendous pressure first when the US demanded a ban on
the activities of the jihadi groups. The attack on the
Indian parliament and then the Kashmir assembly fueled
the fires, and the United States demanded the
curtailment of infiltration.
How the jihadi
groups will respond to Musharraf's policy to cleanse
such outfits from society, however, the more important
question as their reaction could seriously endanger the
internal security of the country. The groups can be
divided into two categories.
Jihadis from
inside Indian-administered Kashmir: This first
category of jihadi organizations belongs to
Indian-administered Kashmir, but they have their bases
in Pakistan. These groups are said to have about 2,000
active members, with about 5,000 more supporters with
links to the the groups. It is widely accepted that they
take their instructions from "elsewhere". Analysts fear
that if the government foils their bids to slip into the
Kashmir Valley, they will spread all over Pakistan and
start their fight in the name of jihad against the
Pakistani establishment.
"They have to fight and
Pakistan could be the next battle ground if they are not
allowed to enter Indian the side," one observer
commented. Their prime motive was to liberate Kashmir,
and not to destroy India. Islam or the destruction of
the United States was also not their self-settled
mandate, they add. But should they feel a threat from
the United States, this might change.
Pakistani Jihadi Groups: The
Pakistani jihadi groups are more powerful than the
Kashmiri groups. The total number of activists in these
groups - fully trained and equipped for jihad - is
somewhere between 5,000 an 7,000. They have an
additional 50,0000 supporter and likeminded people in
the country. They are struggling for Islam as well as
for Kashmir. Observers believe that they will act on the
government's instructions to lay down their guns. "They
were working on the instructions of the military
establishment as front line troops and will continue to
act like this, but a major problem is the splinter
groups that have emerged in these organizations over the
years," said an official. This is the real threat as,
according to official, the military establishment has
lost control of them because of its changing position on
Afghanistan (rejection of the Taliban) and militancy in
Kashmir.
However, some analysts are not ready to
accept the Pakistani jihadi groups as a threat.
"Lashkar-i-Taiba and Jaish-i-Mohammad will be footnotes
in history very soon," said Niaz A Naik, a former
foreign secretary of Pakistan and the man behind the
"Track-II" diplomacy between Pakistan and India to
defuse tension between the neighbors. He believes that
after the withdrawal of state support they will not be
in a position to act strongly. "But we cannot rule out
the emergence of some splinter groups who may create
some security problems, but this would be on a low
scale," he opined.
"The US, the European Union,
China, ASEAN and of course the Almati Conference on
Terrorism will have to act. These players will have to
play their role to bring both India and Pakistan to the
negotiation table as security of the whole region and
the world is at stake. Pakistan might be a victim of
more terrorist activities in the near future at the
hands of the splinter groups," he admitted.
Contrary to Naik, though, other government
sources say that the country should brace for terrorist
acts in near future. "They have enough ammunition, they
have the will and they have the psyche to be martyred,
and this will instigate them to act," said a government
official, with the next few weeks expected to be
decisive.
Observers are taking Musharraf's
recent visits to three Asian countries as a diplomatic
initiative against India as he is trying to reach joint
defense agreements with China, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Whether this will help in dealing with possible internal
problems caused by the jihadis is another matter though.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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