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An Arrow to Washington's
heart
By Ramtanu Maitra
United States Secretary of State Colin Powell,
during his third trip to India since the US launched the
war on terror last October, found Indian leaders
unpleasantly cool at a time when the outside temperature
was unbearably hot.
There were a number of
reasons why. One is Washington's opposition to the
proposed Israeli sale of the Arrow missile defense
system to India, opposition conveyed to India just
before Powell arrived in South Asia.
New Delhi
sees it as an attempt to assuage Pakistan President
General Pervez Musharraf, who is increasingly uneasy
about the way Washington is handling him. Israel, for
its part, has recently proposed selling part of the
missile defense system. It is to be seen how Washington
and New Delhi resolve this sticky matter.
A
joint US-Israel project
That Washington has a say
in this is because the United States and Israel
co-developed the warhead and the launcher, while Tel
Aviv developed the rest of the system by itself. Jane's
reports that the US has footed 65 percent of the US$1.1
billion development funding so far. Before the whole
system gets into serial production, the cost could rise
and the US may raise its stake.
The Arrow system
is part of the Arrow Weapons System (AWS). India seeks
to buy only two parts of the system, the Arrow 2
interceptors and the Green Pines radar. There are
reports that India has already procured the Green Pines
radar system, but the Arrow 2, which is still in the
process of development, won't be physically available
for perhaps years. The Arrow 2 is designed to provide
terminal phase defense against short and medium-range
missiles, the kinds that Pakistan possesses.
Last September, Israeli defense officials
carried out an Arrow 2 anti-tactical ballistic missile
test successfully. The test involved tracking down the
test missile (Black Sparrow) with the Green Pine radar
system, and destroying the same using an Arrow 2
interceptor missile. Israel began developing this system
in 1986 to protect its military and population centers
from Iraqi Scud missiles.
Ballistic Missile
Defense (BMD) technology the issue
The AWS is
reportedly a much more reliable system than the Patriot
missile defense system exhibited by the US during the
1991 Gulf War. It has also been said that American
participation in the project indicates that the US has
decided to incorporate the jointly-developed Arrow 2
into its Theater Missile Defense (TMD). Arrow 2 can
detect and track up to 14 incoming missiles as far away
as 500 kilometers and intercept them as close as 16 to
48 kilometers away. New Delhi would like these to be
stationed along the Line of Control that separates
disputed Kashmir and the India-Pakistan international
border to secure population and military centers.
There is no question that the American objection
is centered on the level of technology that India would
procure through this purchase. Washington is concerned
that with the Green Pine radar and the Arrow 2 in hand,
India will move toward developing its own ballistic
missile defense system. Washington, however, wraps this
concern in verbiage, suggesting that such a ballistic
missile defense system will further destabilize the
South Asian military balance.
New Delhi is not
only unimpressed with the American argument, but
considers it as yet another sign that the US is
unreliable. Indian analysts point to a few facts that
they think the US must consider before telling Israel
not to sell the system.
Last spring, when President George W Bush declared
unilaterally his intent to develop the BMD, India was
one of the first countries to respond positively. New
Delhi did not add a single footnote to its unambiguous
support for the BMD, which had surprised the Russians to
no end. But analysts point out that India believes that
every nation has the right to protect its population
centers and vital national installations in an era when
nuclear weapons are proliferating all around. In India's
neighborhood, Pakistan and China have nuclear weapons.
Pakistan has often expressed its intent to use nuclear
weapons against India should it feel threatened by New
Delhi's military postures. Under the circumstances, New
Delhi feels it must have a ballistic missile defense
system, if it can get hold of one.
Washington has not given up its BMD proposal,
domestic and international controversy and protest
notwithstanding. American experts are still trying to
convince reluctant Europeans to support the US-proposed
BMD system. This means that the United States has no
qualms about "destabilizing" the military balance
everywhere by adopting a missile defense system to
protect its vital installations and population centers.
Indian analysts also point out that the Arrow 2 has
not been put into serial production as yet, and
induction of the system into the Israeli or American
army will take place only after it goes into serial
production. This means that it would take at least a
year, if not more, for the Israelis to make the system
available to India. But Washington is sending its
emissaries to South Asia to defuse a current, ongoing
crisis that has assembled almost a million troops from
India and Pakistan along their borders. Saying that
Washington does not approve New Delhi's proposed
purchase of the Arrow 2 on the eve of Powell's visit had
the immediate effect of creating friction in bilateral
relations and undermining the secretary's visit, setting
back any positive steps to defuse the current
India-Pakistan crisis. Indian analysts insist that the
Arrow 2 has no relevance in the context of the present
India-Pakistan crisis, and the two issues must be
separated completely.
Indian analysts also point out that Washington
should by now realize that India, a nation of more than
a billion people, has the capability to develop these
systems. India developed its nuclear explosives despite
the opposition of Washington and also carried out the
development of a whole range of rockets, ultimately
developing the capability to build intercontinental
ballistic missiles. India did this despite tough
opposition from the Clinton administration. One of the
chief architects of this program is rocket scientist A P
J Abdul Kalam, who has just been elected president of
India. Opposition from Washington will most certainly
further harden New Delhi's resolve to develop the BMD,
and Washington will not be able to do much about that.
On the other hand, harping on this issue will only
generate conflict, creating unnecessary problems in the
evolving India-US relationship.
(©2002 Asia
Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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