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THE ROVING EYE
Terror stalks
Musharraf
By Pepe Escobar
ISLAMABAD - Osama bin Laden still has not been
captured - dead or alive. The al-Qaeda leadership still
has not been captured - dead or alive. They are hiding
"somewhere in Pakistan", as Taliban-linked sources once
more reassured Asia Times Online. Invisible as ghosts,
bin Laden and al-Qaeda remain nonetheless undisputed
world champions in the media sweepstakes.
The
renewed marketing war on how best to demonize bin Laden
and al-Qaeda is already in full swing - with three weeks
to go before September 11's first anniversary. It's no
coincidence that corporate behemoth AOL Time Warner Inc
- via its CNN branch - has decided to broadcast its
extensive, recently acquired al-Qaeda video library. And
so much for CIA "intelligence" on the ground. All it
takes is a single resourceful Afghan fixer to find
precious al-Qaeda-related information. This is how CNN
discovered what it qualifies as "terror on tape".
CNN's editing of the al-Qaeda video library is a
sensationalist pearl capable of putting to shame the
antics of rival News Corp's Fox News. There's absolutely
no effort to put anything into context or to analyze the
causes of al-Qaeda's "hatred" and "brutality". Peter
Bergen, former journalist converted into CNN's sole
expert on terror, is all the expertise allowed into the
mix. Independent analysts would probably ask too many
questions - and would be edited out anyway.
Viewers worldwide watched a poor dog dying from
the effects of a sinister boiling liquid, and endured
specialists talking about the horrors of chemical
weapons - major producers of which, incidentally, are
the US. And suddenly, right on cue, came another
breaking news report: "White House considering attack on
suspected al-Qaeda chemical and biological weapons test
facility in Iraq". The frantic search for a "smoking
gun" linking Iraq and al-Qaeda had materialized right
there on the screen. The attack was cancelled, but if
carried out the end result might have emulated the
bombing of the pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum, Sudan,
ordered by Bill Clinton in 1998. This was a civilian,
not a military plant. Dozens of Sudanese civilians were
killed.
Lieutenant-General Dan McNeill, the
commander of the coalition forces in Bagram air base,
Afghanistan, says that there are now "hundreds" of
al-Qaeda in Pakistan, "maybe even a thousand". Pakistani
Interior Minister Moinuddin Haider says that "al-Qaeda
is not in Pakistan but in Afghanistan". Moin insists
that the few al-Qaeda members in Pakistan have already
been rounded up. This is exactly what President General
Pervez Musharraf said in the beginning of August: around
300 al-Qaeda had been rounded up since last December.
Contrary to US military perceptions, Musharraf
is convinced that al-Qaeda is regrouping in Afghanistan,
not Pakistan - because the US military and Hamid
Karzai's government in Kabul have been consistently
unable to establish any kind of control outside of the
capital. But Musharraf is prepared to accept that maybe
bin Laden and Taliban spiritual leader Mullah Omar could
be hiding in Pakistan's tribal areas. Taliban-linked
sources reconfirmed to Asia Times Online that Mullah
Omar is still safely guarded in the mountains of Uruzgan
province, protected by local warlords, which could have
been paid at least US$500,000. And a mix of European
intelligence and Taliban-related sources swear that bin
Laden is "invisible" and in disguise somewhere in a big
Pakistani urban center. Musharraf totally disagrees. He
does not believe that bin Laden could have possibly
found a sanctuary inside Pakistan: "He must be moving
with 100 to 200 people around him to give him all the
protection ... such a large group would not be able to
hide in Pakistan."
McNeill seems to be much
closer to the actual picture than Moin. With the help of
intelligence-related sources in Karachi and Islamabad,
Asia Times Online has ascertained that there is only one
active al-Qaeda cell in Pakistan - in Karachi - but
several dormant cells are spread all over the country.
Intelligence sources concede that al-Qaeda's
structure is now so diffuse it is virtually impossible
to track. These sources estimate the number of active
al-Qaeda members in Pakistan between 300 and 400. That
includes 24 crucial individuals - al-Qaeda top planners
who recently arrived from Dubai with a special mission:
prepare the killing of Musharraf, working through a
chain of events where each one detonates the next. No
intelligence sources can tell from where these planners
are operating.
Musharraf is undeniably the
number one name on al-Qaeda's blacklist, but its
operatives will not be getting direct help from outlawed
jihadi groups such as the Harakut-ul-Mujahedeen,
Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Jangvi. Even before
September 11, these groups decided at a summit meeting
not to attack the Pakistani government - whatever its
policies. The directive has not been changed: the dirty
terrorist work in these past few months is being
conducted by splinter groups.
"Terror" in
Pakistan has just acquired new overtones. The country
continues to pay an impossibly huge price for its role
as a frontline state during the American-financed jihad
against the Soviets in Afghanistan when jihadi parties -
fully supported by the Inter-Services Intelligence -
practically ripped apart Pakistani society. In the
1990s, the jihadi parties became a state within a state,
indiscriminately spreading what is called in the country
"the "Kalashnikov culture".
Pakistan celebrated
55 years of independence last week. In one of Karachi's
central streets there was an endless parade of people
celebrating on motorbikes, donkeys, buses and trucks
carrying huge Pakistani flags or even papier-mache
clones of the Ghauri missile. Most of these people
erupting with joy were young and poor. According to the
country survey "Poverty in Pakistan", just published by
the Asian Development Bank, in 1999 - when Musharraf's
regime took over - 32 percent of Pakistanis were living
under the poverty line. In 2002, that figure has risen
to 35 percent.
The report says that the main
reason is bad governance. For all of Musharraf's good
intentions, there can be no poverty alleviation when
Pakistan is strangled between extremely heavy spending
on defense and the impossible repayment of its foreign
debt. These two factors consumed 90 percent of tax
revenues during 1998-2000. There is no money left to be
spent on physical infrastructure and development of the
social sector, something that can be easily attested by
a simple stroll in a big city or around rural areas. And
with the recent terror attacks against Christians and
foreigners, certainly there is not a lot of incentive
for foreign and domestic investment.
From a
series of illuminating discussions with the
Oxbridge-educated, Washington-connected Pakistani elite,
a consensus emerges: Musharraf has blown his chance. He
may be a guest of honor in New York next September 11,
hailed as a crucial ally, but America's war priorities
are not necessarily Pakistan's. And Pakistan's
priorities definitely are not the Pakistani president's
priorities.
Whatever the suspicions provoked by
the rigged referendum which gave him some extra few
years in power, Pakistani politicians ultimately did not
object to Musharraf remaining president and armed with
huge powers. They were thinking along the following
scenario: Musharraf as president, a prime minister
democratically elected, more responsible behavior from
the political parties, a wiser National Assembly and the
army back to the barracks.
It won't happen.
There is widespread distrust of the next parliamentarian
elections scheduled for October, with educated
Pakistanis talking about the inevitable emergence of a
puppet prime minister. The National Assembly could be
easily dismissed at the whim of Musharraf. A National
Security Council, packed with military, will constantly
surveil the civilians. And Musharraf will not only
remain president, but army chief as well.
Even
with all this protective coating, Musharraf now lives
the life of a haunted man. He practically does not
travel anymore: the security risk is enormous. When he
goes somewhere, he goes on triple sets of identical
Mercedes. Terror in Pakistan has demonstrated that it
won't spare churches, consulates or schools. And it will
try its best to strike Musharraf himself. The president
has been converted into the highest-profile potential
victim of an infernal machinery set in motion more than
two decades ago by the American-financed jihad against
the Soviets. According to a well-connected Lahore
businessman, "Musharraf wanted to be [Turkish founding
father] Ataturk. He may end up being no more than
[Indonesian dictator] Suharto." But splinter jihadi
groups will never allow this Suharto three decades in
power.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contactcontent@atimes.com for
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