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Pakistan's hackneyed political
script
By Mushahid Hussain
ISLAMABAD - A popular joke in the Third World
during the years of the Cold War went, "The only country
in the world where there cannot be a military coup is
the United States." Why? "Because there's no American
embassy in Washington!"
A somewhat similar logic
permeates the Pakistani military mindset when it comes
to the issue of preventing future coups in this
military-ruled country. During his August 21 press
briefing in Islamabad, President General Pervez
Musharraf said, "If you want to keep the army out, bring
them in."
He followed this up by saying that, in
the newly created civil-military defense body, the
National Security Council (NSC), "the army chief would
not take over".
But how exactly is
institutionalizing the army's role in civilian affairs
via the NSC the same as keeping the army out of
politics? It is like a doctor suggesting that the only
way of weaning a drug addict off heroin is by getting
them onto another drug, since by following the good
physician's directions the patient will no longer have
any need for heroin.
Unfortunately, in Pakistan,
it is true that the more things seem to change, the more
they remain the same. Take the case of the country's
fourth military regime, which is increasingly traversing
familiar terrain.
Like past military coups, the
coup of October 1999 was warmly welcomed by a large
section of the politicians and political parties, many
of whom sought the elected government's ouster through
extra-constitutional means. This short-sighted, but
predictable pattern of politics was based on the rather
erroneous assumption that political opponents of the
elected government would be beneficiaries of the removal
of their rivals.
However, once in power, the new
military regime invariably has its own ideas and agenda
about how to govern, how long to stay on and whom to
align with. Those who uncritically acclaimed the
military takeover then start becoming critical, soon
becoming born-again democrats seeking the "restoration"
of democracy without delay. In the process, they are
willing to align with the same parties and politicians
in whose ouster they actively connived with the
military.
Along the way, due to international
factors, the military regime gets a wink from Washington
to pursue its domestic agenda since it is willing to
promote American interests in the region. To clothe the
regime in respectability, the quest for "legitimacy"
begins by seeking a democratic label to stick to the
status quo.
Elections with "positive results"
are seen as the answer to all embarrassing questions
asked by influential foreigners who adore the regime,
but find that they need some form of democracy palatable
for their domestic audiences. To further this agenda,
the military regime usually dusts off the covers of
aging contingency plans, tucked away in old drawers,
which are retrieved, updated and presented with a
suitably appealing label. The form of such presentations
may change, to suit new realities, but the content is a
constant. It is always protecting the "national
interest" by controlling the political system, ensuring
the perpetuation in power of the military ruler and
maintaining the khaki hegemony in the state structure.
And Pakistan's fourth military regime is
following this script, down to the last comma and colon.
The only possible surprise in store is when
people are asked to exercise their choice through a
secret ballot. The danger of the script being overturned
is most potent, with the potential to upset the game
plan. The people's infinite and abiding capacity to
spring a surprise during balloting - general elections
are set for October 10 - is the one factor that can make
things go awry.
As Pakistan's political track
record shows, all these carefully devised scripts have a
familiar finale, almost like a Greek tragedy. The
American connection weakens after a while when US goals
have been met, and Washington gets bored with its
once-favorite ruler, seeking new linkages with other
more alluring candidates.
The "system" created
as a tactical maneuver for political longevity is unable
to outlast or survive its sponsor, and once he goes, so
does the structure erected to prop and perpetuate his
rule.
However, two new factors in the current
situation are noteworthy. First, the militarisation of
politics is under way. The presence of the NSC is bound
to lead to the politicization of the armed forces.
Second, the NSC is a bad idea since it is borrowed from
Turkey, a country whose track record for providing good
governance, or promoting a sound economy, is debatable.
What's wrong with the NSC in the Pakistani
context? Some aspects should be worrisome. First, in a
federation like Pakistan, a permanent role for the
military in the power structure evokes feelings of
alienation among the smaller provinces, which would see
it as a Trojan horse for what they deride as "Punjabi
domination". This is certainly not a healthy basis to
promote inter-provincial harmony.
Second, the
NSC will create further confusion through a new troika
of decision-making, over-lapping and competing with one
another. Since the president will also be the army
chief, he will naturally revert to his core constituency
for support - the military's corps commanders. Then
their guidance will compete with the "advice" of the
National Security Council, which, in turn, will
influence the decisions of cabinet and parliament, a
hotchpotch of ideas what will only confuse and confound
decision making.
At present, much of Musharraf's
strength emanates from the weakness of the political
forces, whose dilemma has been apparent. The majority of
the political forces have been competing to curry favor
with the regime, willing and ready to do a deal at their
convenience for their interests.
Those among the
mainstream parties who criticize the military regime do
so in careful manner, without saying a word about the
US-led war on terror and Pakistan's role in it, lest
they end up offending the Americans.
Pakistan's
irony is that basically the khaki and the mufti
(civilians) are acting in the same general script - both
see that the road to Islamabad lies through Washington.
(Inter Press Service)
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