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Musharraf bids Uncle Sam
farewell
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Beleaguered Pakistani President Pervez
Musharraf, a virtual prisoner in his own barracks
following attempts on his life, is desperately
maneuvering to form a political bloc that will prevent
the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by former premier
Benazir Bhutto, from dominating October's national
elections.
Musharraf last week controversially
rammed through constitutional amendments that will allow
him to dismiss an elected parliament and government and
to appoint and sack heads of important constitutional
offices, powers previously exercised only by the prime
minister.
Analysts believe that
the PPP is the only party with sufficient political
savvy and experience to prevent this from happening should
it gain a majority in the October polls. Musharraf would
risk throwing the country into complete chaos
should he try to oust a legally-elected PPP.
Events have turned dramatically against
Musharraf since he sacrificed his personal ambitions and
what many believe to have been the national interest in
backing the United States in its war on Afghanistan,
culminating in at least two known attempts on his life
by suspected splinter militant groups determined to
punish Musharraf for walking hand-in-hand with
Washington.
And to add insult to injury, while
Musharraf remains confined to his army house in
Rawalpindi, it is not a matter of particular concern to
the US, which has already sucked as much advantage as it
can out of using Pakistan as a frontline state in the
war against terror.
Attention has now shifted to
the Middle East and Iraq, a region where Pakistan is of
little relevance, especially when it comes to a "regime
change" to oust Saddam Hussein - Jordan and Turkey are
now the targets of Washington's charm offensive.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, at this point a
pro-US democratic government (the PPP) and a pro-US army
chief (such as Vice Chief of Army Staff General Mohammed
Yusuf) would be in the best interests of the US, rather
than an iron man who has vested all powers in his hands
and who could become a threat at any time to US
interests.
The might of Musharraf's military
administration has thus been focused on launching a
"king's" party that would be strong enough to defeat the
PPP, but the consensus is that without heavy rigging
(which is always a possibility), the PPP will sweep the
elections.
This has forced Musharraf to meet Qazi Hussain Ahmed,
the head of the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI), a premier
fundamentalist party, who has been an outspoken critic of
the government. The one-on-one three-hour meeting was
unprecedented: it was the longest meeting Musharraf has had
with any political leader. Qazi refused to comment on what
was discussed, other than to say that "he [Musharraf]
appeared an extremely scared man". However, sources
maintained that Musharraf requested the JI chief to
forge an alliance of all right-wing parties to stop the
emergence of the PPP, which, should it win, would be in
the position to form a government for the third time.
Both previous PPP governments (1988-1990 and
1993-1996) were led by Benazir Bhutto, the second
dismissed by the president on charges of "corruption,
mismanagement of the economy and implication in
extra-judicial killings in Karachi". Bhutto has since
been in exile, and faces criminal charges should she
return to Pakistan to personally fight the election
campaign.
These political moves apart, the
US-based South Asia Tribune has also hinted at contact
between Musharraf and top jihadi leaders. Although such
meetings have not been confirmed, Asia Times Online has
learnt that two of the main militant groups, the banned
Lashkar-i-Taiba (an Islamic militant group that has been
active in Kashmir), and the also-banned Harkatul
Mujahadeen, have recently mobilized their resources and
instructed their men to move to Lahore. No exact reasons
have been given for this, but it is likely that the
militant groups are preparing for renewed forays into
Indian-administered Kashmir. Musharraf had promised,
under pressure from the US, and with some success, to
curb cross-border operations by Pakistan-based militants
into Indian Kashmir. Expect this to change, especially
before the Jammu and Kashmir state elections begin in
September.
Meanwhile, there are further signs of
a reemergence of anti-US groupings in Afghanistan, with
reports of US casualties in skirmishes in Kunar, Khost
and Paktia. These factions have been able to form
because of relaxed vigilance over the border routes
between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Again, like the
cross-border activities into Kashmir, Musharraf had
promised the US that the borders would be sealed to
prevent the Taliban and al-Qaeda members from seeking
refuge in Pakistan.
Initially this was the
case, but recently Pakistan has kept a negligible
presence on its western borders, allowing a virtually
free flow of people and goods. Sources said that in the
past month two large Taliban convoys comprising about
1,000 armed persons moved into Waziristan Agency in
Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal region. The district
administration knew of their presence and also informed
the higher-ups. They were asked to monitor the movement
of the convoy, which they did until it crossed back into
Afghanistan.
Ever since their rout began late
last year, the Taliban and al-Qaeda have fled
Afghanistan via two main routes. One was a sea route
through Karachi port and the other by air through
Islamabad. Ibrahim Hyderi is a fishing slum in Karachi
where even cellular telephones do not work and where law
enforcement agencies seldom visit. Two month ago, the US
Federal Bureau of Investigation and Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence conducted a joint raid in
the area and two prominent Taliban commanders were
seized. They were scheduled to depart for Dubai in the
United Arab Emirates by small ship, a route that is
apparently still in use.
Similarly, Pakistani
intelligence sources say that they have tracked some
suspects who fled from Pakistan by air, usually destined
for the German cities of Dusseldorf, Cologne and
Hannover, using fake Pakistani passports.
According to an investigator, a group comprising
German officials at the exhibition centers in these
cities and Pakistani collaborators is involved in
smuggling people. The German embassy in Pakistan has
often complained that many "businessmen" and their
associates go to Dusseldorf, Cologne and Hannover and
never return. Like the sea route, this channel is said
to still be open.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
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