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At last, some spice in Kashmir
polls
By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Although it might seem that the
moderate separatist organizations' boycott of the
forthcoming elections to the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)
Assembly has made its outcome a foregone conclusion, the
entry of some moderate separatists as independent
candidates in the fray has given the poll an unexpected
vitality.
Given the poor security situation in
the state - the election is being held in the shadow of
the gun - the voting to the 87-member J&K
legislative assembly is being staggered over three weeks
to allow for deployment of security forces across the
state. The elections are being conducted under a massive
military and police presence.
The first phase of
polling is on Monday, September 16, when the districts
of Kupwara and Baramulla in the Kashmir Valley, Leh and
Kargil in Ladakh and Rajouri and Poonch in Jammu will
vote (J&K consists of three regions, Jammu, Ladakh
and the Kashmir Valley). It is across the Line of
Control (LoC) in the districts of Kupwara and Baramulla
that the most serious infiltration of militants from
Pakistan has taken place, and whether voters will come
out to vote, defying the militants' guns will be keenly
watched.
In the second phase on September 24,
the districts of Srinagar and Budgam in the Kashmir
Valley and the district of Jammu will elect their
representatives. In the third phase, on October 1, the
districts of Pulwama and Anantnag in the Valley, and
Kathua and Udhampur in Jammu will vote. In the final
phase on October 8, elections will be held in Doda
district in Jammu. Counting of votes will begin on
October 10.
What is at stake is far more than
the 85 seats that are being contested (two candidates in
Ladakh have already won unopposed). While India has
pitched the polls as the most significant ever and hopes
it would lead to a restoration of normalcy in the state,
Pakistan’s President General Pervez Musharraf has
dismissed them as a "farce".
An election that is
credible in the eyes of the Kashmiri people and the
international community will be a victory for India in
the India-Pakistan face-off and will determine the
future of any peace initiative in J&K. The election
- its conduct and the result - is being keenly observed.
India’s record with regard to the conduct of previous
elections is dismal - most elections in J&K have
been rigged - and this has been a key grievance of the
Kashmiris.
This time New Delhi has indicated
that it is keen to make amends. The government has
promised "free and fair" elections. And although it did
not allow for an official role for international
observers, the elections have been thrown open to an
unprecedented level to the international media and to
diplomats.
To improve the credibility of the
polls, New Delhi has for several months tried to
persuade moderate separatist organizations to come on
board the process. That effort has failed. The Hurriyat
Conference, a conglomerate of around 23 separatist
organizations, and the Jammu and Kashmir Democratic
Freedom Party (JKDFP), led by Shabbir Shah, are
boycotting the polls.
Some have dismissed the
present election as a repeat of the 1996 assembly
election when the Hurriyat boycott reduced the poll to a
contest between pro-India parties, one that the NC won
easily. Indeed, several have predicted that this time,
too, the NC, under its new leader Omar Abdullah, will
win the election.
As in 1996, militants have
threatened to gun down anyone who associates with the
polls. They have already killed over 50 persons,
including two candidates, in the run-up to the vote and
the killing could be stepped up on polling day.
However, much sets apart the present election
from previous electoral exercises in J&K. The number
of individuals who have come forward to contest, despite
threats issued by the militants, is an all-time high.
If the campaign mood in the Valley is any
indication - Indian and international media reports
indicate that a new enthusiasm is evident and as in the
rest of India, elections in J&K this time are a
colorful, noisy affair - voter turnout could be higher
than in 1996. In 1996, in spite of the security forces
marching voters to the polling booths, turnout was
abysmal. This time, the Election Commission is said to
have issued specific orders to ensure that people are
not forced to vote.
The moderate separatist
organizations not contesting might have robbed the
elections of some excitement. Some analysts have pointed
out that with the NC poised to return the election will
not lead to changes in the ground situation in Kashmir
and that the poll is unlikely to lead to any
breakthrough.
Reports from Kashmir indicate that
the poll could still spring some surprises and trigger
change. Interestingly, the spark for this comes from a
section most ignored in Indian elections - the
independent candidates.
Some of these
independents are moderate separatists who have broken
away from the Hurriyat because of the latter’s
intransigence on the poll issue. While their poll plank
is azadi (freedom) – some of them maintain that
they are fighting for freedom from NC rule first and
then from India - that they have opted to participate in
the elections is seen as a big gain.
The
participation of pro-azadi independent candidates
could not only render the pro-Pakistan Hurriyat more
irrelevant but also strengthen the democratic/dialogue
option for addressing the grievances of the Kashmiris.
By contesting the poll, these moderate separatists have
signaled a change in tactics. They are willing to give
India and the democratic process another chance.
New Delhi clearly sees a window of opportunity
opening up in these pro-azadi independents. They
have been provided tight security and, interestingly,
for the first time since the eruption of the insurgency
in 1989, the Indian security forces look on benignly as
azadi slogans are raised at their rallies.
The pro-azadi independents contesting in
Kupwara and Baramulla have been drawing huge crowds at
rallies. Analysts are saying that if there is a huge
voter turnout in their constituencies on Monday, it
would embolden more independent moderate separatist to
file nominations for the succeeding phases.
A
low turnout is expected to benefit the NC, as its cadres
will vote in spite of the militant-Hurriyat call for
boycott. If voters in Kupwara and Baramulla come out to
vote in significant numbers on Monday, the wave could
spread to other parts of the state. That could put the
NC in trouble.
A report in the newsmagazine
Outlook says that if the Congress Party wins at least 20
of the 46 seats in Jammu and another five in the Valley,
it together with the People’s Democratic Party (the main
opposition party in the J&K assembly with which it
has a tacit understanding) and around 10 independents
can form a post-poll anti-NC alliance.
The
victory of the pro-azadi independents is regarded
as crucial to a future peace. Their victory will add to
the credibility and fairness of the poll process. Their
presence in the assembly, perhaps in government,
presents new possibilities.
India might have not
have succeeded in getting the moderate separatist
organizations to contest the election. But the
independents, notwithstanding their calls for
azadi, might just have come to its rescue.
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