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Pakistan's Washington embrace
loosens
By Mushahid Hussain
ISLAMABAD - President General Pervez Musharraf
is on his third visit to the United States since the
events of September 11 propelled Pakistan into the
position of a partner in the US-led war on terror, but
this time the context of his trip is vastly different
from the previous ones.
His earlier visits, in
November 2001 and February 2002, took place in a more
conducive environment, when the "honeymoon" between US
President George W Bush and Musharraf under the rubric
of a common use for terrorism had just begun. That
"romance" is now more of a flickering flame than the
passionate embrace that Pakistani policymakers earlier
presumed.
As in previous occasions, Musharraf is
among a handful of foreign leaders scheduled to hold a
personal meeting with Bush. This time, however, the two
sides have different agendas. The American priority is
to prosecute the war on Iraq after the successful regime
change in Afghanistan, where Pakistan's role was
crucial.
Then Musharraf's arrival in the United
States was heralded by two public expositions of US
concerns: one, an official statement criticizing the
military government in Islamabad and the other, reports
that the al-Qaeda presence is growing in Pakistan.
On the eve of his arrival in the United States
this time, Musharraf received a slight slap on the wrist
in the strongest worded yet statement regarding
democracy in the context of Pakistan's upcoming
elections. On September 7, Bush's national security
adviser, Dr Condoleezza Rice, said, "We made clear to
General Musharraf that we objected to some of the moves
he made recently."
She was referring to the 29
arbitrary amendments to Pakistan's constitution that
Musharraf decreed last month. "The President [Bush] has
raised with Musharraf our expectations for elections in
October - and there isn't any compromise in terms of
democratic principles," Rice said.
The other
American concern was voiced in a New York Times story
three days later, which cited US intelligence officials
saying that "the world's largest concentrations of
al-Qaeda operatives are now in Afghanistan and Pakistan
- and al-Qaeda operatives who found refuge in Pakistan
are starting to regroup and move back into Afghanistan".
"The recent influx into Afghanistan is creating new
dangers," the story added.
Implicit in this
account is an allegation that despite its best efforts
to seal off the 2,254 kilometer border with Afghanistan,
Pakistan's armed forces have failed to foil al-Qaeda's
efforts to 'regroup and return.
Musharraf
retorted to this oblique criticism with his own critique
on Iraq and Afghanistan. He appealed to the US
administration to develop a "consensus in the Muslim
world" on plans to attack Iraq, since this would
"inflame Islamic extremism". He added, "We would not
like to be involved in this [attacking Iraq]".
And in an obvious reference to American
operations in Afghanistan, Musharraf said, "The
situation is still not in control." Actions need to be
taken on which "we have certain views of our own to
extend the writ of the government on the whole of
Afghanistan", implying an American failure to do so in
the 10 months since the Taliban's ouster in November.
These recent speeches and statements from the
United States and Pakistan reflect their respective
concerns, of which two are noteworthy. After meeting his
Indian counterpart on Monday, US Secretary of State
Colin Powell said, "We spoke to the Pakistanis about not
interfering in any way with the Kashmir elections, which
we expect to be free and fair and will be an opportunity
for people to see that these elections are being held in
a free and fair manner."
These elections, which
being held by India in its part of Kashmir, start
polling in the first phase on September16 and end on
October 8.
In his September 12 speech to the US
General Assembly, Musharraf condemned these elections as
a "rigged" process and a "sham", refusing to accord them
the legitimacy that Powell gave the poll.
Similarly, while Musharraf expressed concern
about the threat of war with India and South Asia still
being a flashpoint, the American view of the situation
is apparently not the same. At the UN General Assembly,
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan referred to four
flashpoints in a descending order of priority:
Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and South Asia.
Bush, for his part, made an Iraq-centric speech,
referring to Palestine and Afghanistan in passing but
ignoring the "threat to peace" in South Asia that Annan
had cited. This is a far cry from the situation 90 days
earlier, when South Asia was supposed to be the premier
flashpoint and close to a potential nuclear conflict.
The India factor has also come to play a role as
a competitor for American attention. In his UN speech,
Musharraf called this an attempt by New Delhi to "drive
a wedge between Pakistan and its coalition partners".
Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha attacked the
October 10 Pakistan elections as a "sham election",
urging the United States to take notice of it.
In New York, India's Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee pointedly referred to the role of "democracies"
joining hands to combat terrorism, excluding Pakistan
since it is run by a military government. Pakistan had
sought to draw the United States into mediating on
Kashmir, something Washington did during the last two
crises, in January and June 2002. Musharraf alluded to
this by saying that "crisis management must not be
allowed to become a substitute for conflict resolution".
But this is unlikely to happen on Kashmir, given the
Americans' current obsession with Iraq - one that could
even make Afghanistan a sideshow.
With elections
in Kashmir and Pakistan in the offing, an unfinished war
in Afghanistan that may cross over into Pakistan and the
coming conflict with Iraq, major breakthroughs in the
Pakistan-American relations are unlikely.
Right
now, their priorities are different - maybe even
divergent - on Iraq, Kashmir and al-Qaeda. While seeking
regime change in Iraq, the United States seems eager to
stick to the status quo in South Asia, something
contrary to Pakistan's perspective, particularly on
Kashmir.
(Inter Press Service)
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