| |
Kashmir: Counting votes - and
bodies
By Ashok K Mehta
With
elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) on his mind,
Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah recently told the
visiting US chief of military intelligence, Admiral
Thomas Wilson, director, US Defense Intelligence Agency,
at Srinagar, something that Abdullah alone could say,
"After this you will go to Pakistan. Tell [President]
General [Pervez] Musharraf that he can get Kashmir over
my dead body." Abdullah's resolve to hold credible
elections in J&K, which began on Monday, stands
firm, despite the brutal spurt of election related
violence - including the killing of State Minister
Mushtaq Ahmad Lone on September 11. Equally unshaken is
Abdullah's determination to defeat the anti-election
alliance between Pakistan and terrorist groups inside
and outside J&K.
With an army of 3,000
battle-hardened foreign and local terrorists present in
the state, the latest political assassination has put
the state and national security forces in J&K in a
tizzy. Questions are being asked about holes in the
security of a state minister. Soon after the incident,
the army reported that the political rally where it
occurred was impromptu, and the late minister, on an
unannounced visit to the area, simply asked people to
assemble. There was no flushing of the area or frisking
of the assembly. Whatever the facts, everyone is wiser
after the event. Abdullah announced a meeting of the
unified command - or is it unified headquarters (both of
which are misnomers). Defense Minister George Fernandes
rushed to Srinagar to revalidate the internal security
grid. The fact is, no matter how tight the security,
determined terrorists will get through.
The
government has been armed with assessments and
information that the 2002 Legislative Assembly elections
in J&K will be the most violent ever, never mind the
pro forma warnings from the US to Pakistan. The US is
both unable and unwilling to push Musharraf beyond a
point in curtailing the jihadis. The US also takes
India's self-certified restraint with utmost seriousness
and consequently lets the general get away with blue
murder. India, on the other hand, is stuck in the groove
of crying foul without breaking its sickening record of
turning the other cheek. After 55 years and four wars,
the fear of the Pakistani gun still haunts the people of
J&K. The bulk of 35,000 persons killed after the
start of proxy war have all been civilians.
The
killing of yet another Lone ("moderate" Hurriyat leader
Abdul Gani Lone was killed on May 21) will certainly
spruce up the election security grid without
substantially reducing violence and fatalities. India
wants the election to be credible, transparent and with
maximum voter turnout. Nearly two thirds of the army is
operationally deployed on the Line of Control (LoC) and
international border. The other two services - the
police and the para-military - are also partially
deployed in a state of high alert. Much of the country's
paramilitary forces and police units are being employed
in election duties, with polling spread over four phases
between September 16 and October 8. The inadequacy is
not in numbers of personnel but of appropriate
intelligence and counter terrorism equipment, such as
sensors.
The role of the army is to create an
environment conducive for elections, which includes
sanitization and cordoning of specific areas so that the
electoral process can be carried out without fear of the
terrorist guns. This means keeping the terror groups on
the run and off the backs of the people. The army cannot
and will not be seen to be directly involved in the
elections, though the propaganda mill will, in any case,
churn out stories that the army forced people to vote.
Such reports, though inevitable, are less credible if
the army stays in the background. There are a host of
subsidiary tasks the army will perform to assist the
state and Central Election Commission and paramilitary
forces - such as logistics, communication, specialized
equipment and quick reaction teams. Further, the state
has to launch an extensive public relations and
psychological war campaign to expose Pakistan's hand in
disrupting elections in particular and destabilization
of J&K in general.
What is Pakistan's grand
design? The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its
terrorist groups would like to delegitimize the
elections by creating fear to ensure low turnout. To
this end, they will maximize violence, targeting the
election staff, candidates, political parties and
civilians. Radio intercepts over the past two weeks in
the run up to the elections reflect a clear shift in
strategy. The ISI and the Pakistan-based United Jehad
Council (UJC) have issued clear instructions - break up
elections. This is to be done through assassination,
intimidation and random violence. The local
Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) leader has acknowledged receipt
of an extraordinary infusion of funds to boost the
morale of his cadres. The ISI believes that creating
general panic and mayhem will force the Indian army to
divert some of its forces along the LoC to the
hinterland, which in turn will ease pressure on Pakistan
forces so that some troops can be redeployed on the West
to monitor the situation along the Afghanistan border.
Pakistan remains the biggest beneficiary of the
US global war against terrorism. It has not only become
a "stalwart ally" of the US, but has also gained
enormously in financial terms. The US has rewritten its
$1 billion debt and given aid worth $600 million
together with at least $300 million as payment for the
use of air bases in Pakistan. A $73 million military
hardware package, consisting of five helicopters and
border surveillance equipment, has been given to keep
vigil in the west. This can always be redeployed in the
east.
Beginning July, Pakistan raised the ante
astride the LoC, when its Army crossed the LoC and
occupied a crucial height, Point 3260 (Lunda), in the
Machal Sector (SAIR 1.6), in what some US experts
described as Kargil II. When asked by Indian soldiers
what Pakistani troops were doing at Lunda, they coolly
replied, "We've been sitting here for 55 years. You may
not have noticed." For the first time after Kargil,
Mirage 2000 aircraft were employed to evict the
intrusion with the use of standoff laser guided bombs.
The cost of vacation was high, but no soldier was lost
in the fire assault, which reflects a new trend in
mountain fighting. The message was clear - India would
not hesitate to use whatever it takes to defend the LoC.
A second incident drummed up by Pakistan was a
non-event. On August 23, Major General Rashid Qureshi,
military regime spokesperson, helped the BBC in breaking
news accusing the Indian army of launching an
"unprovoked attack" on Pakistan-held Point 5353, bang on
the LoC in the Dras-Gultari sectors (SAIR 1.6). This was
pure fiction and staged for the benefit of US Deputy
Secretary of State, Richard Armitage. After Kargil,
Point 5353 was turned into a raging controversy in Delhi
by the political opposition. Last week, Pakistani guns
spewed 4,500 shells in Dras and Kargil in response to
imaginary firing by Indian guns elsewhere. Pakistan's
purpose is to keep the LoC alive during what it calls
"mock elections".
Kashmiris, unfortunately, have
always been counting their dead. Let no one be under any
illusion about Pakistan's motives. With Musharraf facing
an election next month, assembly elections in J&K
will be immensely violent. The Americans have told both
sides, Pakistan and India, that they expect a
comparatively violence free election which could unlock
the impasse over de-escalation and dialogue. Which world
is the US living in?
Major General (retd)
Ashok K Mehta is a military and strategic affairs
commentator; former Indian government Peace Keeping
Force (IPKF) South in Sri Lanka and founding member of
the Defense Planning Staff (now Integrated Defense
Staff).
Published with permission from the
South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism
Portal.
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
