South Asia

COMMENTARY
Musharraf wrestles with a Turkish solution
By K Gajendra Singh

At his very first press conference after taking over as Pakistan's chief executive on October 12, 1999, General Pervez Musharraf spotted some journalists from Turkey. Musharraf, speaking in fluent Turkish, told them he was a great admirer of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic and its first president.

"As a model, Kemal Ataturk did a great deal for Turkey. I have his biography. We will see what I can do for Pakistan." Not only is he more at home with Turkish than Pakistan's national language, Urdu, Musharraf also admires Turkey's generals and the country's political model, having spent his most impressionable school years in the early 1950s in Ankara, where his father was posted as a junior diplomat.

Ataturk's legend of forging a new, vibrant, modern and secular Turkey out of the ashes of the decaying deadwood of the Ottoman Empire left an indelible mark on young Pervez, as evidenced by his remarks at the press conference and his subsequent actions as leader of Pakistan.

However, following his statements lauding Ataturk, the Jamaat-i-Islami, the largest of Pakistan's religious parties, immediately expressed its opposition to the secular ideology of Kemalism being used to buttress Musharraf's position. As a result, Musharraf now also highlights the aborted vision for Pakistan of Qaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the country's founding father and first leader after independence in 1947.

Early days
Pervez Musharraf was born on August 11, 1943, in an old haveli (mansion) in Neharvali Street behind the Golcha cinema in Delhi. When he was four years old his family - mother and father and two brothers (his father hugging a box stuffed with thousands of rupees) - migrated to Karachi in the new Pakistan soon after it won independence from Britain in August, 1947.

Non-Punjabi speaking immigrants from India (Urdu was the home language of the Musharrafs) are now mostly concentrated in the ghettoes of Karachi and nearby Hyderabad, and are known as Mohajirs (a name preferred by them to that of "refugee") and they form over 8 percent of the population.

They have been openly discriminated against by the ruling Punjabi elite and have, therefore, established a political organization of Urdu-speaking migrants, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), in Karachi, whose leader, Altaf Hussain, now lives in London.

Starting with president Iskender Mirza, who was exiled by General Ayub Khan after the 1958 coup, the tradition of exiling political leaders has been kept up. Former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are the latest examples.

The Mohajirs, led by the Karachi-born Jinnah of the Ismaili Bohra community, who built up his legal practice and political career in Bombay, now Mumbai, were primarily responsible for the creation of Pakistan. Being generally better educated, they had formed the ruling group in Pakistan's then capital city of Karachi before the new capital and power center was built up in the north in Islamabad in the heartland of the Punjabis, who form about 60 percent of the population.

After a stay of six years in Ankara, where Pervez learned to speak and write Turkish fluently, he completed his further education in English medium schools in Karachi and Lahore. He joined the Pakistan Military Academy in 1962 and finished second in the class after Quli Khan.

The military has always been a coveted profession in Pakistan, but its officer class has traditionally been dominated by Punjabis, with the Mohajirs actively discriminated against. Nevertheless, Musharraf proved himself loyal and diligent, especially with regard to Pakistan's anti-India policy.

Other members of the Musharraf family have sought greener pastures, though. Except for his married daughter, Ayla, an architect, who lives in Karachi, the oldest brother, Javed, is an economist with the International Fund for Agricultural Development in Rome. Another brother, Dr Naved Musharraf, is based in Illinois, US, and is married to a Filipino. Musharraf's son, Bilal, an actuary, is settled in Boston, US, and even his father and mother, who passed away a few months after Musharraf took power, had become naturalized US citizens.

Raised by parents who were moderately religious, modern and almost secular in outlook, and well educated (his mother had a masters degree in literature from Delhi and had worked for the International Labor Organization in Karachi), Pervez was reinforced in these tendencies during his Ankara stay.

Outgoing and extrovert, Musharraf is a caring family man, but somewhat authoritarian. After a normal retirement as a lieutenant-general, Musharraf would have perhaps divided his time between Pakistan and the US. Even now, when on official visits, he spends time with Bilal in Boston, while still utilizing the time to promote Pakistan.

Destiny's wheel
But destiny had other plans for Musharraf. Two things happened that catapulted him to the top of the heap.

A thoughtless and erratic prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who twice came into power in the musical chairs with Benazir Bhutto - conducted by the Pakistan military after the air crash death of dictator General Zia ul-Haq in 1988 - started to go haywire after his 1997 election victory. After winning a two-thirds majority, despite an abysmal turnout of less than 30 percent, Sharif amended the constitution, stripping the president of the power to dismiss the government and made his power to appoint military service chiefs and provincial governors contingent on the "advice" of the prime minister.

Worse, in a rush of blood, he forced General Musharraf's predecessor as head of the army, General Jahangir Karamat, an able and apolitical general, to resign. Karamat, after a lecture at the Pakistan Defense Academy, had expressed the need for a National Security Council (NSC) in view of the introduction of nuclear weapons into Pakistan's arsenal.

Sharif, whose family is of Indian Punjab origin and now settled in Lahore, was a small-time businessman. He was groomed (along with many other middle class Punjabis) by General Zia (also from Indian Punjab) as a reliable rival to the Sindhi Benazir Bhutto, and other feudal political leaders.

Sharif had promoted Musharraf in October 1998 to General and chief of Army staff, thinking that being a Mohajir without a Punjabi support base he would have no Bonapartist ambitions. Perhaps Musharraf would have faded away after completing his term. But at a time when the economic situation at home was dismal, in another rush of blood and hoping to gain absolute power and earn popularity, Sharif dismissed Musharraf and attempted to replace him on October 12, 1999, with a family loyalist, the Director General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Lieutenant-General Ziauddin. Although Musharraf was out of the country at the time, the army moved quickly to depose Sharif in a bloodless coup.

Two days before the coup, the Washington Post had noted that "analysts said Sharif has little idea how to restore confidence in a government that has lost credibility at home and abroad - this deeply unpopular government is facing its worst crisis since early 1997".

One of the reasons that Sharif wanted to get rid of Musharraf was because he had led the Pakistani forces in the debacle at Kargil, in the summer of 1999. Infiltrators from Pakistan occupied positions on the Indian side of the Line of Control in the remote, mountainous area of Kashmir near Kargil, threatening the ability of India to supply its forces on the Siachen Glacier.

Serious fighting flared in the Kargil sector, but the infiltrators withdrew following a meeting between Sharif and then president Bill Clinton in July. Sharif was severely embarrassed by the incident, although Sharif appeared to be in the loop and would have happily reaped the benefit of popularity if the adventure had succeeded. After Musharraf took over, Sharif was charged with attempted murder and other crimes.

A Gallup Poll taken a day after Musharraf seized power revealed that most Pakistanis wanted an unelected, interim government of "clean technocrats" to rule for at least two years. Even Benazir Bhutto said, "He [Musharraf] was a professional soldier and I thought he was very courageous and brave. He'd been a commando and one who is a commando can take tremendous risks and think afterwards."

A Pakistani editorial welcomed the coup, "This is perfectly understandable. The political record of the last decade of 'democracy' is dismal. Benazir Bhutto blundered from pillar to post during 1988-90. Nawaz Sharif plundered Pakistan (1990-93) as if there were no tomorrow. Then Benazir was caught, along with her husband, with her hands in the till instead of on the steering wheel. So Sharif returned to lord it over a bankrupt country. Then, obsessed with power, and emboldened by an illusion of invincibility, he went for the army's jugular and paid the price for his recklessness."

Turkish connection
It comes as no surprise that that Musharraf visited Ankara within days of taking power, in November, 1999, to take up a pre-coup invitation from Turkey's military chief of general staff, who happened to be away when the Pakistani general turned up.

But Musharraf s main objective was to confer with General Kenan Evren, who had seized power in 1980. Yet Musharraf found himself a most unwelcome guest because both President Suleyman Demirel and Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, now rehabilitated and back in power, had been imprisoned and debarred from politics after Evren's coup. They advised Musharraf to restore democracy at the earliest possible chance.

The influential Turkish Daily News, close to Demirel, castigated the visit as "untimely and unnecessary so soon after grabbing power and jailing elected prime minister Nawaz Sharif. The coup in Pakistan or one in any other country can never be accepted. Despite the role of the military in public life in Turkey the general failed to realize the sensitivity Turks feel towards coups and authoritarian rule. He seemed to forget that Turks have now found out that coups have not solved the problems of the country and that, to the contrary, they have further complicated things. The way the general praised former coup leader General Evren was unnecessary."

So Musharraf met his old friends in Ankara and lunched with the chief of protocol, an old school mate. Musharraf did concede before leaving that all countries must find their own solutions.

Turkish political model
The fascination of the Pakistani military with the Turkish military's institutionalized role in politics through a National Security Council (NSC) is abiding. It stems from the days of General Zia ul-Haq, if not earlier, with close interaction between the military brass as Cold War allies of the US.

Many senior Pakistani generals have been posted as ambassadors to Ankara. Zia ul-Haq had wanted to create an NSC in the 1980s, but he was dissuaded from doing so. President Farooq Leghari, under military prodding, had even issued a decree in January 1997 creating an NSC on the Turkish pattern, but Sharif, on being elected in 1997, allowed it to lapse.

Following the Turkish coup in 1960, the 1961constitution transformed the earlier innocuous National Defense High Council into the National Security Council. The president of the republic, instead of the prime minister, was made its chairperson, and the "representatives" of the army, navy, air force and the gendarmerie became its members, apart from the prime minister and four other ministers. The council now became a constitutional body and offered "information" to the Council of Ministers (cabinet) concerning the internal and the external security of the country. After constitutional amendments following the 1971-73 military intervention, it submitted its "recommendations" to the Council of Ministers.

The 1982 constitution, a less liberal product and the result of the 1980-1983 military intervention, further strengthened the NSC's role by obliging the Council of Ministers to give priority to its recommendations. Threats from the military members of the NSC had made premier Demirel resign in 1971, and the first-ever Islamist premier, Necmettin Erbakan, was forced to leave in 1997, thus avoiding direct military takeovers.

The Turkish armed forces enjoy total autonomy in their affairs. Their Chief of General Staff (CGS) ranks after only the prime minister, and along with the president forms the troika that rules the country.

Since the 1960 coup, Turkish politicians have slowly worked out a modus vivendi with military leaders, with incremental assertion of civilian supremacy. Since 1923, except for President Celal Bayar (ousted in the 1960 coup), all Turkish presidents had been retired military chiefs. But first Turgut Ozal (1989-1993) and then Demirel (1993-2000) strengthened civilian ascendancy by getting themselves elected as president. The current President, Necdet Sezer, is a former chairman of the Supreme Court.

In Pakistan, the position of the army's CGS, originally based on the British colonial pattern but modified after 55 years of experience since independence in 1947, during which the military has directly governed for more than half the period, is even more decisive and certainly more arbitrary than the Turkish equivalent.

In mooting an NSC in 1998, with a say for the armed forces in decision-making, then Pakistan army chief of staff Jehangir Karamat was only stating a political reality which might have avoided unsavory confrontation. It would have legalized the de facto position of the military and made its role more predictable and even accountable. Sharif was not amused, and Karamat requested early retirement, which was instantly approved.

After the 1971 Turkish coup, with the top military command channeled into the NSC, putsches by colonels, tried a few times in the 1960s, disappeared in Turkey. The 1971 intervention was a result of pressure from middle level officers. Like Turkish politicians, Pakistanis will have to slowly work out a modus vivendi with military leaders for an incremental assertion of civilian supremacy.

This does not mean irrational dismissals, such as those of Karamat (although he technically retired) and Musharraf. But while the Turkish armed forces, a bastion of secularism, annually expel officers suspected of any Islamic proclivities, Pakistan's armed forces and the ISI have become "Islamized" at the lower and middle levels, and even higher.

In the short term, Musharraf is following General Evren's "Qaida" (primer). So soon after becoming the chief executive he created the NSC (now to have 12 members), heavily weighted in favor of the military, and formed a cabinet of technocrats.

Before the 1980 Turkish coup, political leaders such as premier Demirel and the leader of the opposition, Ecevit, and others, totally abdicated their political responsibilities. They went though hundreds of rounds of voting without electing a new president. Nearly a thousand Turks were killed in six months in left against right violence prior to the coup.

So General Evren barred Demirel, Ecevit and others from politics, and closed their parties. Similarly, Musharraf has kept Benazir Bhutto out of politics on corruption charges, and in a deal exiled Sharif to Saudi Arabia in 2000. Benazir could be arrested if she enters Pakistan, although she still threatens from time to time to fight the October elections. Her nomination papers for the polls have been rejected by the courts.

Musharraf's army constituency
From the outset, Musharraf has made no secret of using referendums or amending the constitution to institutionalize the military's role in decision-making and to prolong and strengthen his hold over power. General Evren had established a committee of experts to recommend a new constitution, the approval of which by referendum also granted him a seven-year term. Musharraf has also chopped and changed the 1973 constitution, but the referendum in April this year to grant himself five more years as head of state was not a neat exercise (accusations of rigging). He could have done better.

In the final analysis, Musharraf is a representative of the armed forces, the most powerful and best organized entity in Pakistan, with the ISI doing its dirty work most of the time. This is his internal constituency which he must cultivate and guard.

To date, he has succeeded in legalizing the military's takeover in 1999 - the coup was endorsed by the Supreme Court on the condition that elections be held within three years - and he has institutionalized its voice through the NSC. His mentor, General Evren, after heading the NSC for two years, had himself elected as president in a referendum for a new constitution. A yes for the constitution was also a yes for another seven years for him. To make it further sure, he forbade any discussion of the vote on the constitution for many weeks earlier. In the end, General Evren was head of state for nine years. Musharraf has hinted that if his version of "refined democracy" is not introduced, he would be willing to continue.

Pakistan's democracy
Throughout the Cold War, the so-called democracy in Pakistan was basically a Western media myth to put its ally on a par with India, which sat in the other camp.

Barring perhaps Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (1972-77), after the military had been totally discredited in 1971 when Bangladesh was carved from its soil, the Pakistan armed forces have been de jure or de facto rulers of the country. In the 11 years between General Zia's death in 1988 and Musharraf's takeover, Benazir Bhutto and Sharif were eased in and out of power whenever they tried to interfere with the military's autonomy or agenda, or their control of nuclear arms, or the policy on Kashmir and foreign affairs. Constantly squabbling with each other, they nevertheless remained busy amassing huge fortunes by corrupt means.

The two politicians had the opportunity and political support to lay the foundations for democracy, but instead they chose despotic ways to steamroller the institutions that provided the checks and balances in the state. This highlights the inability of Pakistan in general to accept the give and take of a democratic administration.

For all the good copy that Benazir still provides the Western media, she was perhaps one of the most incompetent administrators in Pakistan's history, with her husband, "Mr 10 percent" Ali Zardari, making it worse.

She played a seminal role in 1996 in promoting the stranglehold in Pakistan of the Jamaat-i-Islami and other fundamentalist groups, now hiding and biding their time in Pakistan and Afghanistan; they are deeply entrenched in the Pakistan armed forces, the ISI and the establishment, with the potential for implosion.

Tacitly approved by the US and with support from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, Pakistan created the Taliban and other jihadis to provide peace and security in Afghanistan so that US oil giants could lay a pipeline from Central Asia to South Asia.

Despite the ban by the Taliban on growing opium, jihadis, resurgent warlords and drug barons on both sides of the non-enforceable Durand line that separates Pakistan and Afghanistan financed themselves by the cultivation and export of opium (75 percent of world production) and heroin. Too many vested interests in and outside of Pakistan, especially in the military, benefited from this lucrative arrangement.

Pakistan is now deeply infected with the virus of Islamic fundamentalism. The sympathizers of democracy cannot wish it away with the wave of a magic wand as the country has pursued the path of Sharia law, religious intolerance and authoritarian regimes.

A constitution does not a democracy make. Even Turkey, perhaps the only Muslim democracy, 80 years after Ataturk's sweeping reforms with a secular constitution in place since 1923, gets wobbly from time to time. Even its moderate Islamic parties have to be banned regularly. Its armed forces, a bastion of secularism, are ever watchful.

Pakistan polity
In any case, Pakistan began with weak grassroots political organizations, with the British-era civil servants strengthening the bureaucracy's control over the polity and decision-making of the country. Subsequently, the bureaucracy called for the military's help, but soon the tail was wagging the dog.

In the first seven years of Pakistan's existence, nine provincial governments were dismissed. From 1951 to 1958 there was only one army commander in chief, two governor generals, but seven prime ministers. The politicians had wanted to further strengthen relations with the British, their erstwhile rulers, but General Ayub Khan - encouraged by the US military - formed closer cooperation with the Pentagon. And in 1958 the military took over power, with Ayub Khan exiling the governor general, Iskender Mirza, to London.

A mere colonel at partition in 1947, with experience mostly of staff jobs, Ayub Khan became a general after only four years. Later, he promoted himself to field marshal. Ayub Khan eased out officers who did not fit into the Anglo-Saxon scheme to use Pakistan's strategic position against the evolving Cold War confrontation with the communist block.

General Zia ul-Haq, meanwhile, was a cunning schemer, veritably a mullah in uniform who, while posted in Amman, helped plan the expulsion of Yasser Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization from Jordan in the 1970s. But he is more remembered for having prayed at all the mosques of Amman, if not in the whole of Jordan.

He seduced the north Indian media with his gifts of tikka kebabs, and planned Operation Topaz, which in 1989 fueled insurgency inside Indian Kashmir, while at the same time trying to calm the Indians with his goodwill visits to promote cricket contacts between the countries.

His Islamization of the country made the situation for women and minorities untenable, while the judicial killing of former leader Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977 turned General Zia into a pariah. But the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan made him a US darling, restoring and fatally strengthening the Pakistan military's link with the Pentagon. This made the Pakistani military and the ISI's hold pervasive, omnipotent and omniscient. This defense alliance, the seeds of which were planted by Ayub Khan, and the symbiotic relationship between the ISI and the CIA bolstered by General Zia, was never really dismantled and is unlikely to be disentangled.

Pakistan's external constituency: The US
The form of government in a country has seldom bothered the US in the pursuit of its national interests. Otherwise, why would it embrace Pakistan, or say Egypt, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia or any of the other kingdoms and sheikhdoms and repressive regimes around the world, and shun democratic India? Beginning with Ayub Khan's unofficial visit to the US, the foundations for bilateral cooperation in the military field were laid. These have survived through thick and thin, like a bad marriage where neither side can let go, and despite bad patches, such as the takeovers by Zia ul-Haq and Musharraf.

Like the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, September 11 revived the necessity, if not the passion of the 1980s, for Pakistan and the US to fully embrace one another. A divorce now, as naive Indian policymakers and media propose, is wishful thinking in the extreme.

The US needed Pakistan to protect itself from a backlash of its earlier Afghan policies of creating the mujahideen and supporting the jihad in Afghanistan. Now, Washington desperately needed to stop Pakistan's nuclear bombs or material from falling into jihadi hands, and to eliminate, or at least curtail, further damage to US interests.

The US and others in the West will make pro forma noises in favor of democracy, but there appears to be no alternative to the Musharraf regime. Look at the options. Forget about any democratic government now, when the battle with the jihadis in the country has only just begun.

Musharraf: Cool, calculating commando
Musharraf, with his elite commando training, is cool and calculating. He has handled difficult and complex situations well. And in terms of intelligence, opportunism and dedication, he is professionally far ahead of the bluff and bumbling Ayub Khan. Zia ul-Haq reversed human rights progress and irreparably damaged Pakistan's polity. And there is not much to write about the befuddled General Yahya Khan, who presided over the breakaway of Bangladesh in 1971.

Musharraf seized on the invitation in June 2001 of Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to hold talks and, prodded and blessed by the US, he anointed himself president of Pakistan for five years (possibly not for the last time), while retaining the all-powerful army chief post. He thus became the first Mohajir head of state of Pakistan. Some of his loyal generals absented themselves from the swearing-in ceremony. They were taken care of when he lined up with the US in its war against terrorism after September 11.

In July 2001, the Indian media and policymakers foolishly thought that an emperor-like treatment would soften Musharraf on Kashmir. But after his initial charm offensive it was clear that for the Mohajir president, the first priority was to establish credibility and consolidate his position within the Pakistan armed forces, its people, Kashmiri secessionists (by meeting All-Hurriyat Conference leaders for tea in the Pakistan High Commission in Delhi) and the jihadis.

Thus, the centrality of the Kashmir dispute in relations with India was maintained, which sent his popularity back home soaring. After the unraveling of its two-decade Afghan policy, Pakistan could not let go on Kashmir. The nuclear threat option remains the only gain from the US exploitation of Pakistan in its proxy war with the USSR in Afghanistan, which has left behind millions of heroin addicts, a Kalashnikov culture and a bankrupt economy.

Musharraf has tried to reform the economy and reduce corruption. And while he might have gotten rid of or relocated unreliable and Islamist generals (some before his Indian visit, others after September 11), in such situations the toss up is either thakt (throne) or takhta (noose).

Ataturk as a model
Ataturk boldly carried out modern Western-style reforms against religious obscurantism and dogma and forged the remnants of the Ottoman Empire with a 99 percent Muslim population into the secular Republic of Turkey, in the 1920s.

He kept his ambitions in check, did not claim former Ottoman provinces lost in World War I, and concentrated on building a new Turkey from the bottom up. Musharraf, a child of these times, has stepped down, after September 11, from the fundamentalist tiger he was riding and had helped nurture, and which is now baying and conspiring for his blood and that of his US allies.

Delhi-born Musharraf's family comes from east Uttar Pradesh (India). Blue-eyed Ataturk was born in Salonika (Greece) and his family came from Macedonia. Ataturk was able to rally the world war-weary Turks, whose land had been occupied by foreigners. At first he battled the Ottoman Sultan's forces sent to kill him and then vanquished friend turned foe rebel Ethem and his ragtag army, which had helped fight off invading Greeks who had almost reached Ankara. This was something like the various jihadi forces and foot-loose groups that Musharraf now faces.

Later, Ataturk ruthlessly crushed religious revolts led by feudal Kurdish chiefs and others. And to fulfill his destiny, he even neutralized his earlier nationalist comrades, who were in favor of continuing with the Caliphate. Musharraf, too, has succeeded in sidelining many unreliable generals. But the question remains, has he done enough?

Despite his belief in his avowed destiny, his proclaimed good luck in escaping helicopter mishaps, not being in the plane crash that killed Zia and victory in the standoff with Sharif, his position remains precarious, internally and externally.

Joining the coalition against terror has helped prop up the external sector, but fundamental weaknesses in Pakistan's economy have been aggravated, and quite clearly he is not fully in command on the home front, with such things as suicide bombers killing foreigners and Christians and senior officials being assassinated apparently beyond his control.

He is now tightening up, as with the recent arrests of ranking al-Qaeda members in Karachi. But whether his childhood Ataturk-inspired dream will come true is another matter. Perhaps Musharraf is not ruthless enough, like Ataturk, or maybe there are just too many cards stacked against him.

K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal.

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Sep 26, 2002



 

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