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Russia navigates another Caspian
rapid
By Hooman Peimani
On
September 25, while the international community's
attention was largely focused on the possibility of an
American attack on Iraq, the Russian government quietly
concluded an important agreement with southern neighbor
Azerbaijan on the strategically important issue of
dividing the oil/gas-rich Caspian Sea.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Azeri President Heydar
Aliyev signed an agreement to divide their countries'
share of the Caspian Sea. The agreement, like the one
that Russia signed with Kazakhstan in May, seeks to
settle the territorial claims to the Caspian Sea among
the five littoral states not through a multilateral
agreement involving the collective efforts of the five
countries, but through bilateral agreements between each
of the claimants.
While Russia's agreements with
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan could mute conflicts among
these three northern Caspian neighbors for a while, the
unresolved territorial claims between and among the
southern Caspian states of Iran, Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan could instigate major conflicts, including
military ones, as became evident in their 2001
escalation of conflicts.
Finding a legal regime
for dividing the Caspian Sea has been a source of
conflict among its five littoral countries since the
Soviet Union's breakup in 1991. Until 1999, Iran and
Russia opposed its division into national zones, with
exclusive rights to all its resources, in favor of
dividing it based on an agreement among all the littoral
states for its common use, as provided by two
Iranian-Soviet agreements of 1921 and 1940. They based
their argument on the fact that international agreements
on dividing open seas into exclusive national zones
would not apply to the Caspian Sea, the world's largest
landlocked lake. Eager to put their hands on its
offshore oil and gas fields for their deep financial
problems, the other three states were insisting on its
division into such zones.
Russia gave up this
policy in 1999 when it found large offshore oil reserves
close to its Caspian coastline. While Iran has insisted
on a non-development policy of offshore energy resources
in the absence of a legal regime, the other Caspian
states have taken steps to develop those oilfields which
they consider to fall within their territorial waters.
Unsurprisingly, this policy has created conflict
between and among the littoral states as there are many
double and triple claims to different parts of the
Caspian Sea, which is rich in fossil energy. Several
meetings among the littoral states' officials to agree
on a legal regime, including the most recent one held in
May 2002, have all failed to achieve that objective,
because of their conflicting interests.
In the
absence of a binding legal regime, Russia has sought to
address the division issue through bilateral agreements.
The result has been the two mentioned agreements with
its neighboring Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. The details
of the one with Azerbaijan have yet to be released.
However, if Russia's agreement with Kazakhstan is of any
indication, it probably only settled territorial issues,
including the ownership of fossil energy resources, to
the extent agreeable to both sides when they signed it.
The settlement of harder issues, such as ownership
disputes of oilfields close to both countries, were left
for future agreements.
Russia's conclusion of
agreements with its immediate neighbors can only create
a false perception of addressing the unresolved issue of
dividing the Caspian Sea, while practically leaving most
of the sources of conflicts intact. At best, these
bilateral agreements could temporarily settle
territorial disputes in the northern Caspian Sea, at
least for as long as the development of the oilfields in
the disputed zones is not feasible for either party, for
one reason or another. Any unilateral attempt for their
development will surely lead to conflicts.
Thus,
although this arrangement may be suitable for its
signatories for a while, it has not resolved the legal
issue once and for all. Beside unresolved territorial
disputes between Kazakhstan and its neighboring
Turkmenistan, Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are yet
to settle major disputes which have pitted them against
each other since the mid-1990s. In fact, their intensity
was about to push them to a military confrontation last
year.
For example, the three countries have
claims to three major offshore oilfields (Azeri, Cheraq
and Guneshli), now being developed by Azerbaijan.
Relations between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have
deteriorated over their ownership and that of other
oilfields, such as Serdar, or Kapaz, as they call them,
respectively. Iran and its neighboring Azerbaijan have
had claims to what they refer to respectively as the
Alborz or the Alov oilfield. Azerbaijan's effort to
begin its development unilaterally provoked an Iranian
show of its naval capabilities in 2001.
Turkmenistan's frustration at settling its
disputes with Azerbaijan has made it close to Iran's
view advocating a multilateral agreement on the legal
regime. As the latter does not seem to be feasible in
the near future, Russia's bilateral agreements have
inclined Turkmenistan to hint at its flexibility. Thus,
on September 26, Turkmen President Safarmurad Niyazov
mentioned to visiting Russian energy minister Igor
Yousefov that the Caspian states could sign an agreement
to divide the Caspian Sea without Iran's participation,
that is, leaving Iran as the only littoral state
insisting on a multilateral agreement.
However,
given the depth of conflict between Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan, reflected in their beefing up their naval
forces in 2001, and also in their closing down their
embassies in each other's capital, bilateral agreements
do not seem to be a practical solution to Turkmenistan's
problem. However, they can surely damage its peaceful
and extensive ties with its neighboring Iran, with which
it shares a 920 kilometer border.
Given the
importance of their multi-dimensional relations and
their common concern about the American presence in the
Caspian region, major disagreements between Iran and
Russia over the Caspian Sea will not put them on a
collision course, at least in the short term. However,
such is not the case when it comes to Azerbaijan's
disagreements with Iran and Turkmenistan. As the latter
have many reasons for grievances with Azerbaijan, their
unresolved territorial disputes with their Caspian
neighbor could well burst into a major crisis, and
possibly a military conflict.
Bilateral
agreements such as the mentioned ones cannot address the
unresolved issue of a permanent legal regime for the
Caspian Sea. Peace and stability in the Caspian region
require a legal regime acceptable to all parties in
order to remove a major current source of conflicts and
to create mechanisms for the peaceful settlement of
future disputes. Unless such an arrangement is reached,
the Caspian Sea's rich resources will likely help
deteriorate ties among and between its littoral
countries, of which all have other reasons for
unhappiness with their neighbors.
Dr
Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant
with international organizations in Geneva and does
research in international relations.
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