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Missile tests score high on political
front
By David Isenberg
On
October 4, amid renewed tension with India over Kashmir,
Pakistan test-fired a 750 kilometer (470 mile)
Hataf-IV-Shaheen-I medium-range ballistic missile
capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The missile was
reported to have been test fired from a test range at
Somyani coast.
The test of the Shaheen is the
second time that the missile has been fired. The first
occurred in April 1999.
According to the group
Global Security in Washington DC, a non-profit policy
research group, the Shaheen series of solid-propellant
missiles are imports from China by the Pakistan Atomic
Energy Commission, which is also responsible for
Pakistan's plutonium bomb program. The Chinese M-11
missile was obtained from China in the early 1990s and
tested with considerable publicity in mid-1999. The
longer range Shaheen-I appears to correspond to the
Chinese M-9, though there is presently no solid evidence
that Pakistan has obtained that missile.
Pakistan is believed to have the capability to
deploy a nuclear warhead weighing around 500 kilograms.
If its ascribed range/payload curve proves effective,
the missile would have sufficient range from relatively
secure positions well west of the border with India,
deep within Pakistan.
The test also comes 10
days after India tested a Trishul or Trident short-range
missile, which can carry a 15 kilogram nuclear or
conventional warhead and possesses a range of nine
kilometers. India also responded to Pakistan's test with
one of its own Akash (Sky) missile, albeit a short-range
surface to air missile with a range of just 25
kilometers.
The message of the Indian and
Pakistani missile tests was unambiguous: both sides want
to make it as clear that they are prepared for massive
retaliation in the event of a war over their competing
claims to Kashmir, the Himalayan state where more than
35,000 people have already died in a long and violent
insurgency.
On October 8, Pakistan performed a
second missile test in a week, the same day that India
was to complete the last stage of an election in the
divided region of Kashmir. According to news reports
this was another Shaheen missile. A government statement
said that the test was the second in a two-test series.
The missile is reportedly capable of carrying both
nuclear and conventional weapons up to 800 kilometers.
Pakistan last carried out missile tests in May
this year, as the two countries came close to war.
Although tensions have since eased, nearly 1 million
troops remain dug in along the border. The Shaheen
provides Pakistan with the capability of fairly deep
penetration across the border. Its intermediate range
ballistic missile Ghauri, which can fly up to 1,500
kilometers, supplements this capability.
The
tests drew criticism from a number of countries. US
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher suggested
that India's test was less of a concern because the
missiles it tested could not deliver weapons of mass
destruction, in contrast to the ones that Pakistan
tested. Britain expressed its "regret" over the missile
tests by both countries and called for greater
restraint, while Canadian Foreign Minister Bill Graham
also expressed his regret over Pakistan's actions.
"Canada deeply regrets that Pakistan has once again
chosen to test a ballistic missile, particularly at a
time when tensions with India remain high," Graham said
in a statement.
But analysts in Pakistan saw the
tests as serving political goals. In a poor country
where most people are uneducated and also staunchly
proud of their nuclear weapons program, rattling the
saber at arch-rival India was seen a good way to bring
out the voters in advance of the October 10
parliamentary and regional assembly elections.
Pre-election surveys indicated that many Pakistanis were
skeptical about voting in the current political climate.
What better way to stir political passions, say
analysts, than displaying Pakistan's nuclear firepower.
Also, Pakistan's test of a missile capable of
carrying a nuclear warhead deep into India was a
response to fears that its neighbor may adopt the
"preemptive strike" policy recently articulated by the
US against Iraq, analysts said. "Indian leaders in the
past few weeks have been saying they're supportive of
the United States doctrine of preemption," the former
deputy chief of Pakistan's air force, retired air
marshal Ayaz Ahmad, told the media.
The tests
were seen as a message to the Pakistani people - and to
India - that President General Pervez Musharraf will
remain hawkish on Kashmir despite his often
contradictory role as an ally in the US war on terror.
The missile tests were also Musharraf's way of reminding
Pakistanis that he's not entirely under Washington's
thumb.
Yet, even though the tests were
successful, some Pakistani analysts think that the
outlook for Pakistan is still dangerous. An article by
retired Air Marshal Ayaz Ahmed Khan in The Nation in
Islamabad on October 8 noted that because of its
advantage of conventional military power, limited war is
an integral part of Indian nuclear doctrine.
In
his view, air power offers the solution to contain
limited war and avert nuclear escalation. Thus the
Pakistani Air Force (PAF) must be modernized and its
capabilities enhanced. He wrote. "The Indian Air Force
has 800 combat aircraft, while the PAF has only 350. At
least 150 additional advanced strike fighters are
required to achieve some balance with the IAF. The US
should be pressured to return the 28 F-16s to the PAF.
Reequipment of the PAF with state-of-the-art combat
aircraft should be the first priority of the elected
government. The IAF must not dominate the air war over
Kashmir. In the nuclear framework there is a need for
defining clear cut roles for each service, especially
for the PAF when limited military encounters in Kashmir
may turn into nuclear war. The PAF must be ready for
this eventuality as and when it occurs."
(©2002
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