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Kashmir: A crown of thorns?
By
Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE
- Whether the change of leadership in Jammu and Kashmir
(J&K) will usher in real improvements on the ground
in the strife-torn state depend to a large extent on
whether the new coalition government will be able to
provide good governance.
After a fortnight of
wrangling over who should lead the new government, the
Congress, in a move that has been widely acclaimed as a
sagacious one, agreed to the People’s Democratic Party
(PDP) leading the coalition, although it is the former
who won more seats in the recent elections. Others in
the coalition arrangement are the Panthers’ Party and
the People's Democratic Forum.
On Saturday, PDP
leader Mufti Mohammed Sayeed was sworn in as Chief
Minister. He will also hold the all-important portfolio
of the Home Ministry, which will allow him to work out a
strategy on tackling militancy in the state.
While the new coalition government is widely
regarded as providing an opportunity for making a new
beginning towards resolving the problems in the
strife-torn Indian-administered state, the task is
daunting. The militants conveyed that clearly when on
Saturday, just hours before the new government took over
the reins, they launched a grenade attack on the chief
minister’s residence.
The successful conduct of
a free and fair poll, which saw a reasonable turnout by
J&K standards, was a slap in the face of militants,
and they can be expected to step up their attacks in
coming months.
Initial euphoria among the people
over the ouster of the ruling National Conference (NC)
in the elections to the state assembly evaporated
quickly as the elected representatives squabbled for
power. The Congress-PDP bickering over the chief
minister’s post has deprived the new government of some
of its sheen. Especially in the Kashmir Valley section
of J&K, the jockeying for political power severely
eroded the already negative image of politicians.
However, the new government’s image in the
Valley has regained some credibility now since it is the
PDP, which is a Valley-based party, that is leading the
coalition government. The PDP had articulated several of
the grievances of the Kashmiri people during the poll
campaign and earlier as the main party in opposition in
the J&K assembly.
The mood in Jammu
vis-a-vis the new government is quite different. The PDP
failed to win a single seat in this area and the people
of Jammu are angry that the chief minister’s post has
once again gone to the Valley (had the Congress led the
government, Gulam Nabi Azad, who is from the Doda
district in Jammu, would have headed it). The feeling
that Jammu has always been discriminated against by the
Valley leadership is strong here. The issue of regional
discrimination was a key one in the Jammu region during
the recent election. Mufti Sayeed will have to tread
carefully in the coming months to prevent the regional
divide from deepening further.
Whether the
coalition will survive its full term is difficult to
predict. Under the agreement reached by the Congress and
the PDP on government formation, the Mufti will be chief
minister for three years, after which a Congress chief
minister will take over.
A common determination
to oust the NC and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) –
allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in New
Delhi – brought the Congress and the PDP together.
However, there are important differences in the approach
of the two with regard to resolving the problem in
J&K. The Congress’ stronghold in J&K is the
Jammu region, although it won five seats in the Valley.
The PDP influence is limited to the Valley. Their need
to advance the interests of their core support bases is
sure to put a strain on their cooperation.
Besides, Congress, as a national party, will
have to be mindful of keeping its all-India constituency
happy. It will not want to be seen to be making too many
concessions to appease Kashmiri sentiment at the cost of
larger Indian interests. The PDP, in contrast, would
want to build its influence and support in the state.
The common minimum program that the coalition
partners have drawn up shows some bridging of the gap in
their positions. More important, it reflects a desire to
reach out to the people. The program calls on the
central government to hold talks "without conditions
with the members of the legislature and other segments
of public opinion".
On his arrival in Srinagar
soon after the Congress-PDP agreement on government
formation was reached, the Mufti Sayeed said in a public
rally that there was a need to talk to the militants and
the pro-separatist Hurriyat Conference to achieve peace
in the state. The PDP had called for disbanding the
Special Operations Group (SOG), the dreaded
counterinsurgency force. The CMP promises that the SOG
personnel will be "assimilated/relocated within the
regular police establishment".
The Prevention of
Terrorism Act will not be implemented in J&K since
"there are enough laws to deal with militancy", the CMP
states. Cases of detainees being held without trial
would be reviewed. Mufti Sayeed has also promised to
release all political prisoners.
The common
program promises investigation and punishment of those
guilty of custodial killings and violation of human
rights. It also promises steps to improve relief and
rehabilitation of all victims of violence, including
militants' families. The new government has promised
help to children, widows and parents of deceased
militants. This is a marked change from the approach
adopted so far in J&K, where militants’ families
have not been eligible for government relief. The
promises made, if implemented, effectively could go a
long way in healing wounds.
Amitabh Mattoo,
noted Kashmir analyst and professor at the Jawaharlal
Nehru University, New Delhi, cautions that "reaching out
to the people in Jammu and Kashmir must not become an
excuse for providing sops and adopting populist
measures". Stressing the need for good governance,
Mattoo, in an article in The Hindu, outlines four
essential prerequisites for ensuring good governance in
J&K. "One, a strong and stable economic
infrastructure that can unleash the entrepreneurial
potential of the people of the state as well as generate
employment. Two, an accountable, streamlined and
people-sensitive administrative machinery. Three, a
speedy grievance redressal system that includes an
upright and effective judiciary. Four, a revival of
Kashmir's traditionally tolerant society and its
expression in the form of Kashmiriyat [ cultural
unity]."
Mattoo argues that these four
prerequisites have been absent in J&K over the past
decade and points out that "only if these are in place
can we hope for an economically viable and politically
and socially stable Jammu and Kashmir."
Analysts
have frequently pointed out that Delhi, to a significant
extent, holds the key to the functioning of governments
in Kashmir. It is a fact that no government in J&K
has been able to survive, let alone deliver, without
Delhi’s goodwill.
True, the J&K government’s
capacity to implement programs will be determined in a
big way by Delhi. After all, J&K is dependent on New
Delhi for its finances. In an article in India Today,
Shankar Aiyyar writes that the union government has
pampered J&K financially since the eruption of the
insurgency there. Over the past decade, union government
aid to J&K has shot up by almost four times. Will
this largesse now continue or will Delhi tighten its
purse strings? After all, the coalition partners in the
new government are no friends of the NDA government. Why
would the BJP-led NDA coalition at the center want
Congress, its main rival and the party that leads the
national opposition, to achieve any success in
addressing the problem in J&K? Why would the center
want to cooperate with implementing the new government's
program when it does not share its vision? The two have
different positions on issues such as the detention of
militants, for instance.
As important as the
availability of funds for implementing the program is
the commitment of the J&K government to the vision
outlined in the common program. Will it actually act to
provide the people with a sensitive and effective
administration, or will it, like its predecessor, be
reduced to a corrupt administration with skewed
priorities?
Because of rampant corruption and
misuse of funds by the NC government, the benefits of
relief and rehabilitation efforts failed to reach those
for whom it was intended. Instead of rebuilding bridges
and schools destroyed in the violence, former chief
minister Farooq Abdullah frittered away funds on having
golf courses laid out in the Valley.
The people
need jobs, education and other forms of help to re-build
lives shattered by the decade-long armed conflict in the
state. Will the new government deliver where its
predecessor failed?
Mufti Sayeed is often
described as being soft on militants. Even if he is so,
the militants are unlikely to be comfortable with him at
the helm. If he is able to reach out to people through
good governance and a sensitive administration, he could
succeed in addressing the alienation of the people and
restoring their confidence in the government. That is
sure to erode support for the militants further.
Mufti Mohammed Sayeed just might have inherited
a crown of thorns.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co,
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
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