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KASHMIR QUAGMIRE
Olive branch or
poisoned chalice?
By Sudha
Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Late in December,
India’s Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani
announced that the federal government would soon hold a
dialogue with "elected representatives and others" to
resolve the crisis in the state of Jammu and Kashmir
(J&K). "Those who have not participated in the
election, if they want to discuss with us the issues
concerning the state … they are welcome," Advani said.
The willingness to talk to even those who did
not participate in the elections marks a change in
Delhi’s long-held position. It has refused to negotiate
in the past with the All Party Hurriyat Conference
(APHC) on the grounds that this conglomerate of
separatist organizations has not proved its
representative character by contesting elections.
In the run-up to the recent elections to the
State Assembly in J&K, New Delhi reiterated that it
would hold negotiations only with the elected
representatives of the people. In fact, it held this out
as a carrot to get moderate separatists to participate
in the elections. That strategy, however, failed, with
most moderate separatist organizations, including the
Hurriyat and the Democratic Freedom Party (DFP),
boycotting the elections. The few moderate separatists
who did contest the poll did so as independents.
New Delhi’s decision to talk to "those who did
not participate in the elections" is, therefore, a
significant shift. However, within days of announcing
the decision, Advani, who also holds the key Home
portfolio, further clarified the government's offer for
dialogue. "We are ready to talk to elected
representatives and to others as well but not with those
who only reflect Pakistan's voice and consider that
country to be their master," he said.
Although
Advani did not name "those who reflect Pakistan’s
voice", it is the Hurriyat that he was referring to.
Several of the Hurriyat’s constituents are pro-Pakistan,
and constantly push for inclusion of Pakistan in any
dialogue initiative.
It is believed that Delhi’s
offer of dialogue with the "others" who did not
participate in the elections is directed at the DFP and
the "doves" within the Hurriyat, like the Peoples
Conference. The DFP is separatist. Its leader, Shabbir
Shah, has spent many years in Indian jails. But while he
is not pro-India, what is of importance to Delhi is that
he is vehemently anti-Pakistan. It did seem likely at
one time in the months before the polls that Shabbir
Shah would even come on board and contest the poll. His
failure to do so came as a huge disappointment to Delhi.
The Peoples Conference has been openly critical
of Pakistan, of the Pakistan-based militant leadership
and of the hardliners in the Hurriyat. Delhi had hoped
that the party would break away from the Hurriyat and
participate in the polls. It did not. However, it is
widely believed that the moderate separatists who broke
away from the Peoples Conference to contest the poll
were really proxy candidates.
It appears that
several of the moderate separatist organizations would
have liked to contest the polls, but stayed away fearing
militant reprisals.
Delhi’s offer to include
them in the dialogue process is yet another attempt at
bringing them into the mainstream. "The moderate
separatists represent a significant strand of thinking
in J&K and Delhi cannot ignore them if it is looking
for a long-term solution to the problem," says a
Srinagar-based lawyer.
It might seem that the
government’s latest offer of dialogue is just another
initiative that will, like innumerable other initiatives
in the past, prove a non-starter. But there is a
difference this time, says a retired Kashmiri
bureaucrat. Unlike the previous government, the newly
elected Peoples Democratic Party-led coalition
government in J&K enjoys credibility with the
people, he points out.
There are sections in
Kashmir who fear that Delhi’s offer to talk to the
"others" could be an attempt at clipping the wings of
the PDP-Congress government. While the PDP's main rival
in the state is the National Conference (a constituent
of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition
government at the center), the Congress (the PDP’s
coalition partner) is the main national rival of the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the core of the NDA
coalition government in Delhi.
It is less than
two months since the PDP coalition government has taken
charge in J&K, and already tensions have erupted
with Delhi. As part of his "healing touch" policy, Chief
Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed has released several
jailed separatists. The move has raised Delhi's hackles.
Following the November 24 terrorist attack on
the Raghunath Temple in Jammu that left 12 people dead
and over 52 injured, Delhi blamed the Mufti government’s
"soft-pedaling on terrorism" for the spurt in violence
in the state.
Union Minister of State for Home,
I D Swami, said that the November 24 killings made it
imperative for the J&K government to review its
healing touch policy. Jailed terrorists, he said, should
not be released "indiscriminately". Two days later,
Advani accused the Mufti government of deciding to
release the militants without seeking the consent of the
Intelligence Bureau.
In an article "An outrage
in Jammu", in the fortnightly news magazine Frontline,
Praveen Swami writes. "The PDP appears to have no clear
paradigm for actually dealing with terrorism." While the
Mufti says that "no mercy be shown to Pakistani
nationals fighting in J&K", he however, has said
nothing of policy towards ethnic-Kashmiri terrorists,
notably elements of the Hizbul Mujahideen who backed the
PDP's election campaign in south Kashmir."
Swami
points out that from November 18 (when the Mufti
articulated this policy at a meeting of the unified
headquarters) up to November 30, 18 suspected Pakistani
nationals were killed in five major engagements. "Not a
single ethnic Kashmiri terrorist has been killed, and
just two have been arrested. This posture has also meant
that terrorists have been able to initiate offensive
operations with relative ease. November has seen just
over two terrorists killed for each security force
trooper lost, the worst figures since the dislocation of
counter-terrorist operations during the Kargil War."
Following the attack at the Raghunath temple,
the Mufti moved quickly to make peace with Delhi. He has
announced the setting up of a screening committee for
the release of prisoners and has assured Delhi that the
practice of re-arresting militants released on bail will
be observed in future, at least in cases where the
charges are serious. The disbanding of the Special
Operations Group (the ruthless but effective
counterinsurgency outfit) – a key election promise of
the PDP – appears to have been shelved. The outfit is
likely to be merged into the J&K police.
The
Mufti government's problems have been compounded by the
fact that it is under fire from both the federal
government in Delhi and the militants. The government’s
alleged appeasement of militants notwithstanding, the
militants have not cut down on their attacks. In fact,
its extension of an olive branch to them has provoked
the Pakistan-based jihadis to step up their attacks.
There has been a sharp spurt in militant violence over
the past month, with women and children being targeted
increasingly. The Mufti has said that the strategy is
"not to appease militants but to divest them of the
reason to wield the gun". The Pakistani jihadis see his
approach as an attempt to weaken the militancy.
Advani has said that while the state government
is free to handle issues regarding governance and
socio-economic justice, on security issues it would have
to seek the opinion of the central government.
Confronted with the people's high expectations
of his government, the Mufti has so far moved quickly on
issues that have won it brownie points with the people -
issues such as compensation to victims of militancy,
release of jailed separatists and so on. He will now
have to tackle the tough tasks - persuade the moderate
separatists to enter the dialogue process and stem the
rising violence in the state. Above all, he will have to
do a fine balancing act between addressing the
grievances of Jammu and Kashmir’s violence-weary people
and meeting Delhi’s demands on security issues.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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