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Attacks bode ill for
mega-pipelines
By Muddassir Rizvi
ISLAMABAD - This week's attacks on gas pipelines
in Pakistan have raised serious questions about the
country's capacity to protect a planned multi-billion
dollar trans-Afghanistan pipeline, which would bring
natural gas from the Central Asian Republic of
Turkmenistan down to Pakistan.
The attacks on
Tuesday came less than a month after the gas pipeline
agreement that was signed by the leaders of Pakistan,
Turkmenistan and Afghanistan in Ashgabat, the Turkmen
capital, on December 27.
The gas pipeline,
estimated to cost over US$6 billion in infrastructure
costs alone, will have the capacity to carry 30 billion
cubic feet of natural gas from the Central Asian
republics to Pakistan for supply in the region and
beyond.
Dubbed as a guarantee of economic
prosperity, the project will open the rich oil and gas
reserves of the Central Asian republics to the world at
a time of increasing worries about oil supplies in the
Middle East.
Gas exports from these republics
would reach 4,850 billion cubic feet and oil exports 3.2
million barrels per day by 2010. Another pipeline is
being considered to supply gas from Iran to India
through Pakistan, but this has been overshadowed by
Indo-Pakistan tensions.
However, all these
pipeline dreams depend on the security situation in the
region. In fact, many experts link the presence of US
forces in Afghanistan to the future security cover that
will be needed to protect the network of pipelines that
are to originate in Central Asia and culminate in South
Asia, the Gulf and Europe. "The geo-strategic objectives
of the United States are clearly linked to its interest
in the oil and gas reserves of Central Asia, especially
if we take into account the predicted shortages in the
world oil and gas supplies in the years to come," said a
researcher in the Pakistan government-run Institute of
Strategic Studies (ISS), requesting anonymity.
An attempt at a
Turkmenistan-Pakistan-Afghanistan gas pipeline by the US
company Unocal was given up in 1997. The firm had
earlier offered $2.5 billion in royalties to the
Taliban, but plans fell apart after most governments,
including the United States, refused to accept them as
the legitimate rulers of the war-battered Afghanistan.
It was only after the Taliban's fall and the
formation of a legitimate government in Kabul, which
extended assurances of full security to the gas
pipeline, that the three countries agreed to sign a
formal agreement last month. The Asian Development Bank
allocated $1 million for the feasibility of the project
and has offered $3 billion in construction costs.
But the latest attacks may change the perception
of the interested parties in the project with regard to
the security cover available in Pakistan. "The incident
exposed the permeability of the security cover provided
by the country's armed and paramilitary forces to the
network of gas lines that supply gas from the town of
Sui [Balochistan province] to the rest of the country,"
said the ISS researcher. ''Similar questions will now be
raised about the security of the planned pipelines."
The first of the series of attacks took place on
Tuesday night when, according to Pakistani officials,
unidentified people fired rockets at two main gas
pipelines connecting Punjab and North West Frontier
Province (NWFP) to the Sui gasfields in southern
Balochistan province. The rocket salvo came a few hours
after an explosion in a cooling plant 40 kilometers from
the gas fields. Similar rocket attacks were repeated on
Wednesday night and on Thursday, though the damage was
not as grave.
So far, however, the government
has been trying to downplay the attacks by calling them
a result of a feud between Bugti and Mazari tribes that
live in the area, which is the most underdeveloped in
the country. Both tribes indulge in frequent armed
clashes over ages-old land disputes and blame each other
for the pipeline attacks.
A home ministry study
says that there have been 24 rocket attacks on the gas
pipeline network in Balochistan province over the past
two years, but most were benign in terms of material
damage. Tribals demanding more share in royalties and
jobs in the companies supplying gas carried out most of
these attacks, the study said, suggesting that earlier
attacks were meant to blackmail the government, not to
cause damage.
However, ministry officials
privately say that the latest attacks are unprecedented
and appear to be well planned and executed by trained
professionals. Officially, they say that it could just
be misguided rockets that went astray during the tribal
clash. The attacks caused disruption and in some cases
complete suspension of gas supplies to northern parts of
the country. Many turned to coal, wood and kerosene for
cooking and heating in winter temperatures.
Natural gas is the most widely used source of
energy in the country in industry and homes. Its use as
compressed natural gas is also increasing in vehicles.
Gas supply was suspended except for domestic consumption
in Punjab and NWFP, resulting in a shortfall of 430
cubic feet of gas per day, "causing billions of rupees
in losses to the national exchequer," said Abdullah
Yousaf, federal secretary for petroleum and natural
resources.
What is now important for the
Pakistani government is to prove its ability to handle
contingencies. A quick restoration of the supply network
may just be as important as foolproof security. "It's
not the matter of just putting out fires and replacing
the destroyed pieces of pipes with new ones, it will
also involve testing of the new infrastructure before
putting it into full-fledged use," said Ismail Paracha,
general manager of the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd,
the public sector gas distribution company.
Much
of the gas supply was restored on Thursday, but the
credibility of the Pakistani security apparatus in place
to protect the pipelines network has been damaged. "Thus
far the main obstacle to these mega [pipeline] projects
had been lawlessness in Afghanistan. Questions could now
be raised about the insecurity of Pakistan's own gas
installations," said an editorial comment in the
English-language daily The News on Thursday.
(Inter Press Service)
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