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COMMENTARY
India, Pakistan: Time for some
friendly advice
By Praful Bidwai
NEW DELHI - Nuclear neighbors India and Pakistan
have further intensified their rivalry with an
escalating war of words about the mistreatment of their
top diplomats - so far, each country has expelled four
personnel from the other's high commission. This plunges
the South Asian foes' relations to an historic low,
barely one year after they withdrew their ambassadors
and halved the strength of their diplomatic
missions.
Their mutual relations today are even
worse than during the 1971 war that led to Pakistan's
dismemberment and the creation of Bangladesh. This
danger now is that this already vitiated atmosphere
could worsen further. The adversaries are flouting
well-established rights of accredited diplomats under
numerous treaties, including the Vienna Convention of
1961. Even worse, they are violating the bilateral code
of conduct on the treatment of diplomats that they
signed in 1992.
On the military plane, their
adversarial relations are deteriorating further as they
accelerate nuclear weapons deployment and embark on arms
purchase binges. India and Pakistan, commentators agree,
are competing with each other to make South Asia "the
most dangerous place in the world".
India's
foreign ministry presented its action against the four
Pakistani personnel as a "calibrated response" to the
perceived harassment in Islamabad of India's acting
ambassador, Sudhir Vyas. On Saturday, his official car
was blockaded by police and intelligence agencies.
According to the Indian protest note, the
mission car, flying the national flag, was boxed in by
four four-wheelers and two motorcycles. It was blockaded
"for up to 45 minutes at a time". Vyas has allegedly
been harassed every day of this week too.
However, the Pakistani mission in New Delhi says
that its own acting ambassador has faced similar
physical harassment from the beginning of the month. It
filed a formal complaint on January 7 that "lately the
surveillance of the flag vehicle being used by the
acting High Commissioner has been increased to such a
level that it can be simply termed as harassment".
For three days, the Pakistani complaint said,
"intelligence vehicles" followed the vehicle "bumper to
bumper", making "dangerous maneuvers".
The eight
embassy personnel were alleged to have "engaged in
activities incompatible with their official status", a
euphemism for espionage. Both governments have dismissed
the allegations against them.
Their uncivilized
conduct toward each other will further embitter their
relations and is liable to attract external
intervention.
The first circumstance is fraught
with strategic misunderstanding or misconception, making
conflict more likely. The second reflects growing global
worry that India and Pakistan might repeat the recent
10-month-long confrontation with each other.
One
of the truly sordid aspects of the present state of
India-Pakistan relations is illustrated by their
mistreatment of each other's top diplomats. Earlier,
middle-level diplomats used to be subjected to verbal
abuse, intrusive surveillance and actions such as
"physical harassment, disconnecting of telephone lines,
threatening telephone calls, pursuit in cars and
unauthorized entry into residences" - which the code of
conduct explicitly prohibits. Some could even be beaten
black and blue and sent home. That was bad enough. But
now, for the first time, heads of mission and their
official vehicles are being targeted.
Under the
code of conduct, the Indian and Pakistani governments
agreed "in the first instance, [to] look into the
circumstances of (a) Complaint [of breach] before
lodging a formal protest". They have breached this. They
also agreed that an official declared "persona non
grata" should be given at least a week's notice before
being expelled. But India and Pakistani gave each
other's staff notice of only 48 hours.
In
today's highly inflamed situation, it is irrelevant to
ask who fired the first shot. What is material is that
both states use grossly intimidating methods. Both
intend to cause damage to each other - including bodily
harm to diplomats.
The rivalry and tension that
exist between India and Pakistan can only be understood
in terms of a hot-cold war, as distinct from the Cold
War.
The conflict between the United States and
the Soviet Union was essentially ideological - to be
sustained with armed preparation and settled over time
through competition between their social systems, but
not expressed through direct military engagements. The
two rivals were also physically far apart and fought
proxy wars in the Third World. But they never exchanged
a gunshot.
By contrast, the India-Pakistan
conflict is territorial, political, highly militarized -
the two have fought three-and-a-half wars - and driven
by hostility of a foundational nature over accepting
each other's existence. Symbolic of all these divisions
is the dispute over Kashmir.
Over the past few
years, this rivalry's ideological dimension has been
reshaped by religious extremism, especially in India.
Post-September 11, there has been growing frustration
among Hindu extremists that the United States is not
lending its full weight to India in its fight against
what New Delhi calls cross-border terrorism.
Religious extremists in Pakistan, thus far on
the political margin, increased their vote by 50 percent
in the October elections - largely because of the US
military intervention in Afghanistan, seen as
"anti-Islamic". Should the US attack Iraq, Pakistani
extremists will get stronger.
India-Pakistan
rivalry is thrust to even higher levels by their nuclear
and missile arms races. India tested missiles three
times in the past fortnight. Pakistan and India have set
up or strengthened nuclear command authorities and
further hardened their nuclear doctrines.
India
has taken the lead by signing a huge US$3 billion deal
with Russia to lease four long-range nuclear bombers and
two nuclear-capable submarines. The massive deal will
dramatically improve New Delhi's ability to deliver
nuclear weapons. The four Tu22 long-range aircraft are
capable of dropping nuclear bombs on China. The
nuclear-propelled Akula class submarines can deliver
nuclear warheads with a major element of surprise.
As India and Pakistan get sucked into the vortex
of a terrible nuclear arms race, there are few domestic
forces powerful enough to pull them back from the brink.
The situation is a fit case for international
intervention and mediation. But to get the two rivals to
negotiate reduction of hostility and normalize
relations, such intervention will have to be
even-handed, balanced and multilateral.
The
United States has immense leverage over India and
Pakistan, but its effectiveness would be limited by its
short-term interests. In any case, it is preoccupied
with Iraq, Palestine and Korea.
A better
alternative would be an initiative by a truly global
forum or one based in the south, such as the Non-Aligned
Movement, or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
plus Japan and China, to exercise diplomatic an moral
pressure on the South Asian rivals.
Such
intervention, usefully supplemented by the European
Union, has a far higher chance of success than any
other. The alternative to that may be a catastrophe.
(Inter Press Service)
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