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KASHMIR IN FOCUS
Pakistan takes a
different tack
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The recent exchanges of goodwill
gestures between India and Pakistan over Kashmir have
been widely regarded by the media in the subcontinent as
a milestone to mark the beginning of a new round of
talks on the disputed territory.
The latest
conciliatory moves - set off by Indian Prime Minister
Atal Bihari Vajpayee in a speech last week delivered in
Srinagar in Indian-administered Kashmir - are the result
of the changed world order of the past few years and are
likely to result in Delhi and Islamabad adopting a
paradigm shift in their Kashmir policy that could, for
the first time, see the issue tackled not bilaterally,
but multilaterally.
Vajpayee's emphasis that
India would like to see the Kashmir issue resolved
peacefully received a positive response from the
Pakistan Foreign Office. And Foreign Minister Khurseed
Mehmood Kusuri released a statement calling on India to
participate in a major pipeline project that will see
gas pumped from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to
Pakistan, and then potentially on to India. "Since
tension in South Asia has diminished in the last several
weeks, we desire India to take part in the Turkmenistan
gas pipeline," said Kusuri. He added that Pakistan was
prepared to give international guarantees for the the
protection of the 1,600 kilometer pipeline that will
cost an estimated US$3 billion.
After September
11, 2001, the long-standing dispute between India and
Pakistan over Kashmir, which has driven them to war on
two occasions, took on a renewed significance for the
United States in the context of its global "war on
terror".
During the US-led attack on Afghanistan
in the wake of September 11, the Indian army
significantly escalated its presence on the Pakistani
border. Sources within the Pakistani Foreign Office say
that this was done at the insistence of the US to secure
Pakistan's maximum cooperation in its Afghanistan
venture.
In response, apart from mobilizing its
own troops, Pakistan, according to the Foreign Office
sources, requested the government of Oman to station
some of its fighter aircraft in Pakistan. This was an
unprecedented request by Islamabad, but it had lost its
strategic depth in the region following the ousting of
the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Omanis apparently
replied positively, but only after India had already
de-escalated its presence. The late response was
apparently under US pressure.
And because of its
support for the Taliban, Pakistan had alienated Iran,
which had provided support to Pakistan in the two wars
against India in 1965 and in 1971, with the latter
leading to the creation of Bangladesh.
In the
face of these strategic levers used by the US, Pakistan
had little option but to throw its full weight behind
the US and cooperate in the "war on terror".
With the defeat of the Taliban and now Iraq, the
US is turning its attention to another significant war
theater in the region - Kashmir, where the main militant
struggle to "free" Indian-administered Kashmir is led by
Islamic fundamentalists. Both the US and China are
concerned that these groups could inspire the Uighurs in
Xinjiang in eastern China, to step up their agitation
against Beijing, as well as provide a sanctuary for
remnants of the al-Qaeda network.
Pakistan is
fully aware that Kashmir is increasingly becoming an
issue of international focus. According to a very senior
Pakistani Foreign Office official, this realization
started when Inamul Haq was secretary of the Foreign
Office a few years ago. He started the debate that there
should be a major shift on the country's policy. This
initiative has been further propagated by the present
secretary, Riaz Khokhar, as there is a deep
acknowledgement that the Kashmir problem can only be
resolved by multilateral participation. This could
possibly involve the United Nations, China and the US.
Further, the Pakistani Foreign Office accepts
that the militant cross-border struggle that began in
Kashmir in 1989 was a policy devised by the Pakistan
army, and in the present global world order it is no
longer sustainable.
But should all Pakistan
support be withdrawn, the militant struggle would likely
fizzle out in a short time. Therefore, it would be
better to negotiate now, when some pressure could also
be placed on India, and hawkish voices in the Delhi
administration, such as Deputy Prime Minister L K
Advani, could be contained.
(©2003 Asia Times
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