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India, China reach for the
moon
By Jayanthi Iyengar
NEW
DELHI - China and India, both in the throes of heady
economic expansion and apparently buoyed by their
political and military progress, in the same way that
the United States and the then-Soviet Union did in the
1960s and 1970s Cold-War era, are building separate
outer space projects in a race to the moon.
Both
programs appear driven as much by national hubris as by
genuine scientific enquiry. Some of India's space
scientists are scathing in their denunciations of their
own country's efforts. Neither country has yet even put
an astronaut in Earth orbital flight, although they have
flown with Russian and American spaceships. US
astronauts landed on the moon more than 30 years ago,
but the lunar program has been largely grounded in favor
of more scientifically rewarding projects.
Nor
are India and China alone. Asia is experiencing a flurry
of activity all the way across the scientific and
technological spectrum that is energizing government,
scientific and investor circles. South Korea and Taiwan
are specializing in nanotechnology to attempt to
catapult themselves to the top of the tech-savvy chart.
Malaysia is touting its US$10 billion high-tech
multimedia super corridor, while at the same time
forming a space agency, as is Korea. China has 12
astronauts in training. Pakistan's emphasis is purely
military, on nuclear weapons and missile technology.
India believes that if future wars for global dominance
are fought on commercial grounds, it would like to use
its lunar program to enhance its image as a tech-savvy
nation. Its unexpected success in information technology
is an example.
The Chinese plans, at least, are
grandiose. They said in March that they would put a man
on the moon within 30 months, but then shortened that to
the end of 2003 - a far reach, since there are fewer
than five months left - but they have made it clear
their lunar mission is the stepping-stone to a more
ambitious plan of conquering Mars. And, unlike the
secrecy that marks most of their military initiatives,
the Chinese have voluntarily released information of the
progress made on their space program at regular
intervals.
Soon after their unmanned Shenzhou IV
rocket successfully returned to earth in January after
162 hours in orbit, the Chinese newspapers went to town,
quoting President Jiang Zemin, who hailed the launch as
a "great victory". Shenzhou IV is the last of China's
four unmanned space flights so far, and is considered
preparatory to the country putting a man on the moon,
after the US and Russia.
The Chinese president
apart, the even the media-shy mid-level Chinese
bureaucracy, has readily issued statements on the moon
mission, conveying the impression that the country's
space program is a matter of national pride and prestige
– just as it is for India, its populous neighbor. At the
Paris Air Show in June, Liu Youguang, general manager of
the space department at China's Great Wall Industry
Corp, said, "China's maiden manned space flight will be
launched by the end of the year."
Soon after,
Liu Zhenxing, a space expert at the Chinese Academy of
Sciences, told the China Daily that though the country
did not have an immediate timetable for a Mars probe
program, such a project would surely benefit from the
country's continuing efforts to embark on a maiden,
manned lunar mission. "Technically speaking, the
experience and expertise accumulated in the course of
the lunar probe program will help China's exploration of
Mars," he said.
The Indian announcements have,
on the contrary, been more muted, but nonetheless they
have been met with critical public reactions. Despite
the dissent, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
first set the clock ticking when he announced at a
science congress in Mumbai in January that it was time
for India to achieve its dream of putting a man on the
moon. "Our scientists are now talking of sending a man
into space. It is time to make our dreams come true," he
said.
Subsequently elaborating on the details of
the meeting that led to the announcement, Dr K
Kasturirangan, secretary, India's Department of Space
and chairman, Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)
said, "I met the prime minister about a month ago during
Indian science week. We only had a few minutes together.
But he said to me, 'What about a man on the moon? What
do you think about it?' I told him we would have to look
at a long-term perspective. Nothing is impossible for
us. The question is political commitment and resources."
The Challenger tragedy and the death of
Indian-born US astronaut, Kalpana Chawla - whom many in
India view as Indian and with pride - however, ended up
in refining the Indian announcements. As things stand
now, the ISRO will launch a $85 billion unmanned lunar
mission by 2007. The ISRO team will seek to put 250
kilograms to 300 kilograms into a 100 kilometer orbit
around the moon using Polar Satellite Launch
Vehicle/Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle
(PSLV/GSLV), launch vehicles, which are supposed to have
the capabilities of launching ballistic missiles if
necessary.
The ISRO has completed the
preliminary groundwork for the mission and the proposal
is presently awaiting approval from the Indian cabinet.
However, no major impediments are expected at the
political level, since the idea has come from the prime
minister and bears the hallmark of both his personal
ambition as well and the potential for churning up
nationalistic sentiment on the eve of a general election
scheduled for 2004.
Interestingly, the criticism
has come from Indian scientists, who have launched a
scathing attack. At the helm of this brigade has been H
S Mukunda, chairman, Indian Institute of Sciences (IIS),
Bangalore. The IIS is considered by many to be the
Indian equivalent of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Though Mukunda is today unwilling to elaborate
his views - which now some refer to as his personal
views rather than that of the IIS - he has been
extensively quoted as calling the program "stupid" and
the equivalent of reinventing the wheel. "It's
bankruptcy of ideas. What the US did 30 years ago we are
trying to do now. It won't bring the country any
technical benefit," Mukunda reportedly said at a lecture
organized by Prasthutha, a student forum of the IIS.
Gopal Raj, author of Rising to the Stars,
a book on India's rocket program, is equally critical,
pointing out that "this is money wasted when it has so
many alternative uses, even in the field of science and
technology, including pure science, biotechnology and/or
agriculture".
However, he also says that though
the criticism from the IIS has been scathing, the rest
of the scientific community has maintained a studied
silence, at least on record. "Nobody wants to get into
this controversy," he points out. Defense analyst Raja
Mohan echoes Raj to an extent when he points out that
some military and commercial spin-off cannot be ruled
out, "but we do not need a space program for enhancing
our military capabilities, since PSLV already has them".
Broadly, the on and off-record concerns of the
scientific community span the following areas: Should a
poor country like India embark on a mission to the moon
when there are better uses for the funds earmarked for
the program? India already has the military capability
for remote sensing and launching missiles and the
military gains would be minimal. The ISRO's operations
are both compact and cost effective in other areas,
except in the case of this proposed program There would
be some commercial spin-offs, but a lunar program is not
necessary to reap these benefits and India cannot
possibly consider itself to be in the same class as
China, either in terms of economic or military
strengths.
Over 97 percent of the moon's surface
has been mapped and 382 kilograms of moon rock is
already available for study. Besides, the information
collected by the US and Russians during their lunar
missions is now declassified and is available for pubic
scrutiny. Hence it is not necessary to spend an average
of Rs 10 million (US$280,000) to Rs 50 million per
kilogram on the moon just to re-discover existing
knowledge. This program would benefit only a handful of
scientists working on it and has limited use for the
scientific community at large or for adding to the stock
of knowledge.
The criticism has forced the
Indian science bureaucracy to defend the move on various
grounds. ISRO chief Kasturirangan has made claims of
positive technical spin-offs of the mission, including
rocketry and telecommunications. Claims of alternate use
and affordability have also been dismissed on the
grounds that India, with a budget of about $400-500
million annually for space, can easily afford $87.3
million annually for its lunar program. Besides, as the
ISRO chief has pointed out, "As a motivator, such a
mission will electrify the nation and will also show
that India is capable of taking up a complex mission
that is at the cutting edge of space."
Kasturirangan's views are seconded by Dr P S
Goel, a member of India's space commission, and director
of the ISRO satellite center. "If the wheel has to be
reinvented, it has to be done. We need to develop our
own scientific and technical expertise. The next step
after satellite launches is space exploration. India
will do anything that will make her technologically
independent."
While pride and one-upmanship are
central to Indian lunar ambitions, the last part of
Geol's statement is also significant. There is a growing
feeling within India that the group of
technology-redundant nations, led by the US, will use
every excuse to stall transfer of technology to India in
cutting edge areas such as nuclear and space. To
illustrate this point, the Indian science establishment
quotes the example of its experience with the transfer
of cryogenic technology.
When the Russian space
agency Glavkosmos signed a contract to supply a
cryogenic upper stage for the ISRO's geosynchronous
satellite launch vehicle, it also promised transfer of
technology for indigenous production of launch vehicles
of this class. But following nuclear blasts at Pokhran
in 1997, Glavkosmos reneged on its contract, on what
India considers to be pressure from the US.
The
move, however "proved to be a blessing in disguise. We
were forced to develop our own cryogenic technology and
today we are self-sufficient in this area", says a
senior Ministry of Science and Technology official. He
further points out that in the new millennium, when
control of technology will determine global commercial
and military dominance, India cannot afford to sit back,
be it in space, semi-conductors, nanotechnology or
nuclear research.
In the geopolitical arena, it
is this philosophy that today dominates much of India's
decision-making. It would like to force its way into the
group of permanent members on the UN Security Council.
It would like to position itself as a counterweight to
China, leaving behind Pakistan, in the emerging balance
of power in Asia. The lunar program is in that sense a
step in that direction.
Already, the ISRO has
taken giant steps on commercializing the benefits of its
space capabilities. By launching Korean and German
satellites in May 1999, the ISRO stepped up its
involvement in the commercial space market, including
the sale of telemetry, tracking and command services, as
well as consultancy, training and designing for space
missions. Its products are pitched to international
clients from whom the space agency gets more than 75
percent of its income. In the first half of this year,
the ISRO signed agreements with Indonesia and Brazil for
"the peaceful use of space". The organization is
expecting Indonesia's space agency LAPAN to provide the
land, logistics and manpower for a telemetry, tracking
and command station based in Indonesia. Its track record
is far better than most space agencies the world over,"
says Raja Mohan. "Its operations are commercially
successful, cost effective and compact," Raj adds.
Antrix, the ISRO's commercial arm, has made a
place for itself as competitive disseminator of
commercial technology and data, executing several export
orders for spacecraft and satellite manufacturers,
mainly supplying remote sensing satellites as well as
related hardware and software. It also made history of
sorts in 1999 by pushing down prices in the
international market, forcing the US to cut its rates.
The corporation offers a selection of satellites with
functions ranging from telecommunication to Earth
observation.
Given this background, the message
is that India wants to signal to the world that it likes
to think ahead, think big and reap big benefits from its
lunar program. These benefits, as the Indian science
community perceives, may not be scientific. Instead,
they may be in the form of political gains from
nationalism at home, geopolitical importance in Asia and
new opportunities for growth on the economic front.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
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